Iraq Begins the Battle to Restore ‘State Dignity’

A member of Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) looks on during a graduation ceremony at the CTS base in western Baghdad in August. (AFP)
A member of Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) looks on during a graduation ceremony at the CTS base in western Baghdad in August. (AFP)
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Iraq Begins the Battle to Restore ‘State Dignity’

A member of Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) looks on during a graduation ceremony at the CTS base in western Baghdad in August. (AFP)
A member of Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) looks on during a graduation ceremony at the CTS base in western Baghdad in August. (AFP)

For the past 17 years, much has been said about the need to restore the authority and dignity of the Iraqi state, but little has been done to that end. The battle started with the American invasion in 2003 and is ongoing with Iran and Turkey’s violations of Iraq’s borders and the so-called resistance axis, comprised of a number of pro-Iran factions that possess weapons outside the control of the state.

These factions have been operating in line with Iran’s agenda in Iraq, which has established a “deep state” in the country. The battle is imminent, but the question remains: who will deal the first blow?

All prime ministers who preceded current Premier Mustafa al-Kadhimi have avoided an open confrontation with the “outlaws”. Nouri al-Maliki was the exception when he waged an offensive in 2009 against the Sadrists in al-Basra and al-Amara. Kadhimi was appointed to his post with the pledge to Iraqis to hold early and transparent elections and with them, restore the dignity of the state.

Reverse equation
Kadhimi’s opponents, starting with the armed factions and the Fatah bloc headed by Hadi al-Ameri, expected the new premier to overlook the militias’ firing of Katyusha rockets against American targets in Iraq, whether at the US embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone, the capital’s international airport or the Taji military base.

Kadhimi, however, proved them wrong. Soon after coming to office, he sought “strategic” dialogue with the Americans, which would include discussions on their troop withdrawal from Iraq. The militias, wary of both parties’ intentions, delivered their own message with the nearly daily launch of Katyusha rockets against US interests. Undeterred, the PM went a step further by ordering a raid against the Kataib Hezbollah militia, detaining several of its members, in what was seen as a precedent in the confrontation between the state and armed groups.

His attempt to restore the dignity of the state took a misstep when all but one of the detainees were released. Adding insult to injury were the freed members who trampled on posters of the PM and other officials soon after their release.

Kadhimi believes that such reactions are to be expected, given that he has taken the bold step to buck the trend of his predecessors and wage a head-on “grinding” confrontation against the militias. He is likely expecting more losses, even personal ones, in the future. The PM still holds many cards in the confrontation, significantly that one remaining detainee, who is seen as a hefty catch. The detainee can help lead authorities to the sources of the armament of the militias, allowing security forces the opportunity to shift tactics by focusing on the source, rather than raid the factions’ headquarters.

Big night The morning of June 26 was eventful for Kadhimi, who had a busy schedule. It culminated with a midnight raid by the elite Counter-terrorism Service against the Kataib Hezbollah headquarters. It was a bold step by the premier, whose government is barely two months old.

The premier may have been hasty in his move. Sunni member of the parliamentary security and defense committee Mohammed al-Karbouli told Asharq Al-Awsat that the confrontation with the outlawed armed factions and militias is “inevitable, but it requires means and mechanisms so that the state does not lose its dignity in the process.”

He remarked that the PM was dragging the counter-terrorism units into this battle. The units have presented major sacrifices in the battle against ISIS and it may not be wise to involve them alone in the confrontation with the factions, Karbouli warned. “Neither the units, nor Kadhimi are qualified now to take on this role.”

The PM may be headed towards two losses: waging a losing battle and failure to achieve victory, while also creating divisions within the state and military institutions, he added. The first step should be building a strong and unified military that is “completely loyal to the state” until the conditions are ripe to launch the confrontation.

Head of the Center for Political Thinking in Iraq, Ihssan Shmary told Asharq Al-Awsat that Kadhimi broke the mold by appearing “more committed in implementing his ministerial agenda, especially in regards to limiting the possession of weapons to the state.”

By waging a confrontation with the outlawed factions, he is demonstrating that he is acting away from political pressure and dictates, he added.

He warned that the raid will have “major political repercussions,” explaining that Kadhimi does not boast a political bloc. The factions do and they may come together to impede his government’s work. Moreover, the militias would have now realized that Kadhimi is not willing to turn a blind eye to their practices, which would give them the incentive to resolve their disputes and unite to confront this new challenge. Kadhimi will then have to focus on which approach to take, such as his ability to stall and garner political and popular support.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.