Saudi Economic Activity to Grow by End of Q3 2020

Estimates confirm growth indicators for the Saudi economy , Asharq Al-Awsat
Estimates confirm growth indicators for the Saudi economy , Asharq Al-Awsat
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Saudi Economic Activity to Grow by End of Q3 2020

Estimates confirm growth indicators for the Saudi economy , Asharq Al-Awsat
Estimates confirm growth indicators for the Saudi economy , Asharq Al-Awsat

Indicators for recovery and growth of the Saudi economy are improving starting from the end of Q3 2020. This comes after easing the strict COVID-19 lockdown which lasted for four months.

Economists believe that Q3 will usher in growth as economic activity gains momentum coupled with the attraction of more investments.

Investments are expected to increase with the growing investor confidence and increasing liquidity rates in the local market.

The optimism is also accompanied with indicators of high oil prices.

Economist Salem Bajaja says that optimism prevails over analytical visions of the Saudi economy with the economy reopening and trade returning to its course amid health preventative measures placed by the Health Ministry. Stores in Saudi Arabia are reopening after a 90-day shutdown to stem the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Bajaja underlined that it was the successful policies placed by authorities in Saudi Arabia that will have a positive yield in Q3.

Bajaja, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, points out that the recovery of the Saudi economy in the coming few months is reinforced by the confidence in the improvement of the health situation as virus infection recoveries are on the rise.

Abdul Rahman Baeshen, head of the Ashorouq Center for Economic Studies, confirmed that the policies pursued by government sectors, including financial and labor policies, will pay off within two months from now.

Baeshen expected an increase the import and export movement by no less than 1% before the end of 2020, noting that active movement began to return in most parts of the world, which entails the movement of trade, investment, exports and imports.

Economist Khaled Ramadan attributed the expectations of the Saudi economy's recovery starting from Q3 2020 to several reasons, the most important of which is the momentum of the return of economic activity after a long absence, and expectations to attract more investments and high oil prices.



Less than a Month's Supply: Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks are Wafer Thin as Iran Tensions Flare

An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
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Less than a Month's Supply: Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks are Wafer Thin as Iran Tensions Flare

An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
An Exolum refueling tanker fills an airplane at Almeria airport in Spain, April 19, 2026. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo

Europe has imported jet fuel from the US and Asia, raised its refiners' output and drawn on stocks to keep planes flying – and yet it remains the region most exposed as renewed Middle Eastern tension raises the risk of further supply disruption.

Britain, France and Germany are particularly vulnerable in a continent where decades of refinery closures left it more reliant than most on Middle Eastern shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said.

The Strait, conduit for around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas until US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed a war on Iran at the end of February, partly reopened in June.

In July, however, a fragile truce has come under threat from strikes by both sides.

Data from consultancy Energy Aspects dated June 18 already anticipates a supply deficit across Europe of nearly 600,000 barrels ‌per day in ‌the third quarter, against surpluses of 116,000 bpd in the United States and 425,000 ‌bpd ⁠in Asia-Pacific.

Inventories stood at ⁠38 million barrels at the start of June, compared with 99 million in the United States, Energy Aspects said. That leaves Europe with less than 30 days of demand cover, Reuters calculations show — the tightest of the major jet fuel markets.

The most recent data available from the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report, showed provisionally jet fuel stocks were 10% higher year-on-year at the end of May, while refinery output rose 30%. The figures also implied only a month of leeway.

"We still do expect some tightness through August at this rate," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad.

The European Commission has also acknowledged the ⁠situation could get worse.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in June the bloc faced tighter ‌jet fuel stocks towards the end of the summer holiday season and ‌that Brussels would coordinate releases of national reserves if needed.

CARGOES FROM CANADA TO SOUTH KOREA

Until war broke out at the ‌end of February, Europe had relied on the Middle East for around half of its jet fuel imports.

In March, ‌analysts had expected African countries, which sourced nearly all their jet fuel from the Middle East, to be the hardest hit.

However, they have managed to increased imports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery, as well as India and Oman, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler.

Europe, meanwhile, has so far prevented supplies running out by turning to new sellers, such as Canada.

In June, Europe overall imported ‌673,000 bpd of jet fuel, its highest since October 2025, Kpler data showed.

The US and Nigeria were the biggest exporters to Europe, but Kuwait, Canada, India and ⁠South Korea also provided ⁠cargoes.

Imports from India in June reached their highest since February and nearly 25,000 bpd Kuwaiti barrels are due to arrive in August for the first time since early March through a ship-to-ship transfer on the ship Proteus Harvonne.

Before flows were interrupted, Kuwait was one of the biggest suppliers of jet to the region.

Among those who increased production to ease the strain, Italian refiners increased jet fuel production by 10% in the first four months of the year.

The countries' imports fell 6%, enabling domestic production to meet nearly 70% of demand in March and April, according to UNEM, Italy's fuel producers' association.

Eni, which accounts for around half of Italy's jet fuel production capacity, boosted output by importing semi-finished products from outside Europe, industry sources said.

Jet fuel prices in northwest Europe meanwhile have fallen to around $133.27 a barrel from a record $215.32 at the end of March, easing pressure on airlines. Fuel typically accounts for between 20% and 25% of operating costs.

Immediate discounts to air ticket prices are unlikely, analysts say, as demand is strong and capacity is limited, especially after many carriers cut flights to maximize fuel supplies.


Oil Jumps 4% as New Military Strikes Threaten Hormuz Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
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Oil Jumps 4% as New Military Strikes Threaten Hormuz Shipments

FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025.  REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Crude oil storage, a part of the United States' strategic oil reserve, is pictured in the Permian Basin oil field near Midland, Texas, US February 18, 2025. REUTERS/Eli Hartman/File Photo

Oil prices surged over 4% on Monday as energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz remained under threat, with the US and Iran announcing renewed military strikes.

Brent crude futures climbed $3.10, or 4.08%, to $79.11 by 0325 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.95, or 4.11%, to $74.36 a barrel, Reuters reported.

US forces completed another wave of strikes against Iran on Sunday, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations with precision munitions, the Central Command said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday they ⁠attacked US military bases ⁠in Kuwait and Bahrain.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial traffic, although Iran declared earlier that it closed the strait after a vessel traveled on an unapproved route and was struck.

Some 20% of the world's oil and liquefied ⁠natural gas transited the strait before the war began at the end of February.

Six vessels transited the strait on Sunday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed, the lowest number in five weeks.

The escalating attacks cast further doubt on the future of an interim US-Iranian agreement signed last month that aimed to reopen the strait and end the war after a further 60 days of negotiations.

Following the agreement, global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remained ⁠9.4 million ⁠bpd below pre-war levels, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday.

"Hopes of a relatively quick resolution to the recent skirmishes may be in doubt after tension escalated over the weekend," ANZ analysts said in a note.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the relatively tame rise in oil prices suggested the market was taking the view that the current flare-up represented an escalation within a fragile truce and fell well short of a complete collapse of the ceasefire.

"How accurate that view is remains to be seen," he said in a note.


Egypt's January-March Current Account Deficit Widens to $5.1 billion

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in downtown Cairo (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in downtown Cairo (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Egypt's January-March Current Account Deficit Widens to $5.1 billion

The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in downtown Cairo (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The headquarters of the Central Bank of Egypt in downtown Cairo (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Egypt's current account deficit more than doubled to $5.1 billion in the January-March quarter from $2.3 billion a year earlier, central bank data showed on Sunday.

Net foreign direct investment inflows edged down to $3.7 billion from $3.8 billion in the same period of 2025, Reuters reported.

The central bank attributed the wider July-March current account deficit mainly to a larger merchandise trade deficit, partly offset by higher remittances, tourism revenue and Suez Canal receipts.

Remittances from Egyptians working abroad rose to $12.8 billion from $9.3 billion in the same quarter last year, Reuters reported.

Tourism revenue increased to $4.2 billion from $3.8 billion in the same period last year. Suez Canal revenues rose to $1 billion from $800 million a year earlier.

Oil imports increased to $5.7 billion in the same quarter, from $4.8 billion a year earlier, while exports rose slightly to $1.6 billion from $1.2 billion.