Difficult negotiations on another economic-stimulus bill got a bit worse on Thursday. And with very little margin for error going in, this is bad news indeed.
Remember the state of play. House Democrats passed a large bill — with more than $3 trillion in relief measures — two months ago. President Donald Trump and the White House haven’t always been on the same page, but in general seem to support doing something big to prevent a further meltdown. Senate Republicans have been following a policy of “wait and see,” while reporting indicates that they’re just now trying to come to an internal agreement about what to propose.
Meanwhile, multiple deadlines are approaching. Expanded unemployment insurance expires in little more than a week. The possibility of a severe eviction crisis is increasing. And lawmakers will only briefly be back in session before a month-long August recess, so if they don’t do something quickly there’s a chance that they won’t act until after Labor Day. Or later.
Into all of this the White House on Thursday tossed another complication: Trump may veto the package if a payroll-tax holiday isn’t included. The problem? Trump has pushed this idea before, and no one — Democrat or Republican — seems to support it.
It’s just astonishing, although at this point not surprising, how poorly Trump is playing this. If he places such a high priority on a payroll-tax holiday, he should’ve been pushing hard for it — not mentioning it in passing a few times, but making a sustained case in public. He also should’ve been poking around Capitol Hill looking for potential allies and trade-offs. Are there Trump-loving senators who would be willing to fight for such a measure within the party? What would Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell ask for in return? Or: What are the possibilities for creating a cross-party coalition, with Trump supporting a House Democratic priority (robust unemployment insurance? Money for state and local governments?) in exchange for payroll-tax relief. I don’t think House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would go far it, but maybe she would!
Of course, there’s also the possibility that Trump doesn’t actually care about this but some in his administration do. In that case, a strong president would’ve shut down the whole debate, or had his chief of staff do so. It would actually make sense if Trump was relatively indifferent to the substance of the next relief package and simply insisted that Congress get it done quickly. But that doesn’t at all cohere with pushing this unpopular measure as the White House’s big ask.
I think it’s more likely than not that Congress gets something done before the August recess, and that Trump ultimately goes along with it. But there’s still a chance that the whole thing blows up, and takes the economy down with it.
Bloomberg
