Iran-China Military Alliance: A Threat to Mideast Security

Warships during joint Iran, Russia and China naval war games. AFP file photo
Warships during joint Iran, Russia and China naval war games. AFP file photo
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Iran-China Military Alliance: A Threat to Mideast Security

Warships during joint Iran, Russia and China naval war games. AFP file photo
Warships during joint Iran, Russia and China naval war games. AFP file photo

The US faces the prospect of a serious escalation in tensions with Iran after Tehran's announcement that it intends to build a new military base in the Indian Ocean by the end of the year, the Gatestone Institute has reported.

The Iranian announcement, moreover, comes at a time when Tehran is on the point of signing a $400 billion trade deal with China, which will include closer military cooperation between the two countries in the region in an attempt to counter Washington's traditional dominance, wrote the think tank’s Senior Fellow Con Coughlin.

Under the terms of the deal, details of which have been published in the New York Times, Iran could receive as much as $400 billion in Chinese investment over the next quarter of a century.

The agreement, which could be signed by March, also encompasses closer military cooperation between the two countries, including weapons development, combined training and intelligence sharing in order to combat "the lopsided battle with terrorism, drug and human trafficking and cross-border crimes."

Such cooperation could lead to China and India forming an alliance to bolster their presence in the Indian Ocean, which represents a challenge to Washington and threatens Middle East security.

Iran has so far given no indication as to where it intends to build its new base. At present Chabahar port, which is used, among other activities, for shipping goods to Afghanistan, is the nearest base Iran has to the Indian Ocean, Coughlin wrote.

As part of the deal negotiated with Beijing, China is to be allowed access to a number of Iranian ports, including Chabahar, with the Chinese reported to be planning to build a new military base in the vicinity of the port, he said.

The construction of such a base would enable the Chinese Navy to monitor the activities of the US Navy in the area, in particular the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, which is deployed to protect shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Any expansion in Iranian and Chinese military activity in the region would also have an impact on the jointly-administered US-UK base on the island of Diego Garcia, one of the Pentagon's most important military assets in the region.

Earlier this year Washington dispatched a fleet of B-52 bombers to Diego Garcia following the sharp rise in tensions with Tehran in the wake of the assassination of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

The prospect of a new Iran-China military alliance taking shape in the Indian Ocean is certainly a development that will be taken with the utmost seriousness by the American military, which is already concerned about Iran's attempts to spread its influence throughout the region.

US Marine Corps General Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of US Central Command, warned in a recent interview that Iran posed the greatest threat to regional security and stability.

Any future military alliance between Tehran and Beijing would only strengthen Iran's determination to expand their malign activities in the region, thereby raising the prospect of a further escalation of tensions with the US and its allies, wrote Coughlin.



Snapback Threat Deepens Iran-West Tensions Amid Warnings and Diplomatic Standoff

Iranians walk past a propaganda mural in Tehran depicting a figure from Persian mythology launching missiles, Wednesday (EPA)
Iranians walk past a propaganda mural in Tehran depicting a figure from Persian mythology launching missiles, Wednesday (EPA)
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Snapback Threat Deepens Iran-West Tensions Amid Warnings and Diplomatic Standoff

Iranians walk past a propaganda mural in Tehran depicting a figure from Persian mythology launching missiles, Wednesday (EPA)
Iranians walk past a propaganda mural in Tehran depicting a figure from Persian mythology launching missiles, Wednesday (EPA)

Tensions between Iran and Western powers have escalated sharply, as the European trio - Britain, France, and Germany - hinted at reactivating the “snapback” mechanism that would automatically reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran. The looming decision has sparked strong reactions from Tehran, with Iranian officials warning of potential retaliatory actions that may come as a surprise to some European nations.

According to diplomatic sources cited by the Associated Press, the foreign ministers of the European trio agreed during a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this week to reinstate UN sanctions on Iran by the end of August, should no substantial progress be made on the nuclear deal.

The snapback mechanism, part of the 2015 nuclear agreement, allows any signatory to reinstate international sanctions if Iran fails to uphold its commitments. The clause expires on October 18, making this summer a crucial period for decisive action.

In Tehran, the response was swift and stern. Iranian MP Ebrahim Azizi, head of the parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, denounced the European move as “a hostile political action.”

He stressed that Iran has “multiple options” and would not hesitate to use them if provoked. “The West must refrain from such a step,” Azizi warned, “and if they go ahead with it, our countermeasures may be unexpected for some Europeans.”

Conservative Iranian newspaper Kayhan went even further, calling for legislation to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), framing it as a necessary deterrent step.

Earlier this month, Iran’s parliament passed a law to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), requiring all inspection requests to be coordinated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

This move came in response to US airstrikes on Iran’s underground Fordow uranium enrichment site, as well as facilities in Isfahan and Natanz, during a 12-day war initiated by Israel on June 13.

Despite the growing tensions, some Iranian figures are urging a return to diplomacy. Mohammad Sadr, a veteran diplomat and member of the Expediency Council, stressed the need for “serious and urgent” negotiations with the European trio.

“Given the limited time before snapback is activated, Iran must work to create conditions that prevent Europe from taking that route,” Sadr said in a media interview.

The UK, France, and Germany are all original signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, from which US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018, arguing it was too lenient on Tehran.

Under the agreement, sanctions were lifted in exchange for strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program. The snapback clause allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran is found to be non-compliant.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated on Tuesday that the trio is now in a position to justify triggering the snapback. Meanwhile, the ambassadors of the three nations met at the German UN mission this week to discuss the situation. Though no specific conditions were disclosed, the discussions signaled growing impatience with Tehran.

According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar urged his German and French counterparts to activate the snapback during a meeting on the sidelines of the EU ministerial council in Brussels on Tuesday.

The newspaper reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also discussed the issue with multiple world leaders. A senior Israeli official said: “There are no longer valid excuses to delay reimposing sanctions.”

He added that Iran’s previous threats to enrich uranium to 90% are now considered irrelevant. “Even the US now supports the snapback, and the Europeans are inclined to follow suit.”