Political Blocs East of Euphrates Support Decentralization

Syria’s Tomorrow Movement leader Ahmad Jarba (Syria’s Tomorrow)
Syria’s Tomorrow Movement leader Ahmad Jarba (Syria’s Tomorrow)
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Political Blocs East of Euphrates Support Decentralization

Syria’s Tomorrow Movement leader Ahmad Jarba (Syria’s Tomorrow)
Syria’s Tomorrow Movement leader Ahmad Jarba (Syria’s Tomorrow)

Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian political blocs from Qamishli, a city in the northeastern province of Hasakah, have announced the establishment of the "Peace and Freedom Front" to ease coordination on a political solution in Syria.

The front’s statement called for the adoption of decentralization, just distribution of wealth and power, and reconsideration of the administrative demarcations currently in place.

The statement also defines the role of the army and security services, defending the country and maintaining its security, independence and territorial integrity.

The front includes the Kurdish National Council and Assyrian Democratic Organization, both of which are represented in the Syrian Negotiation Commission, in addition to Syria’s Tomorrow Movement and Arab Council in Euphrates and Al-Jazeera.

These parties are all part of the Syrian opposition, operating in the region controlled by the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces supported by the international coalition led by the US. The agreement was reached after two major Kurdish parties reached a preliminary settlement of their differences.

The front’s statement also makes clear that the new coalition "does not affect the persistence of any of its parties’ membership in opposition bodies; rather, its work falls within the framework of complementing their efforts" and that the front supports opposition forces and international and regional parties seeking to end the suffering of the Syrians through a comprehensive political solution through its statement.

It also affirms the front’s openness to discussion and collaboration with the parties across the Syrian opposition spectrum, in a reference to the ongoing American and French-sponsored talks between the Kurdish Council and Democratic Union Party.

Ahmed Jarba, head of Syria’s Tomorrow Movement, said: “In light of the scenes that afflict Syria and the region, we have noticed a state of political rigidity and surrender, to an extent that despair has reached its climax.”
“Through this announcement, we are breaking through the wall of despair and declare that it will resonate through deeds, not words.”

Speaking about the inclusion of Kurds, Assyrians and Arabs in the coalition, he said: “The diversity of our backgrounds and beliefs demonstrates that the unity of the Syrian people is high and none can rise above it, and that betting on singling each of us out to bring us down and subjugate us has fallen and will not rise.”

For his part, Faisal Youssef, a leader in the Kurdish National Council said: “This front was announced to reinforce coexistence between the components of the region, and (ensure) that the constitution guarantees the rights of national minorities and considers their languages and cultures to be national languages and cultures that represent Syria’s history and civilization.”

The statement, which includes 15 clauses, affirms that Syria is an independent and sovereign state, with the principle of the peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections as its basis.

It demands constitutional ratification that Syria is a nationality-national multi-cultural and multi-religious state and emphasizes the front’s commitment to the United Nations-sponsored political process.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”