Sudan Loses 40% of Revenues due to COVID-19 Pandemic

People stand in line in front of a bakery in Khartoum. (AFP)
People stand in line in front of a bakery in Khartoum. (AFP)
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Sudan Loses 40% of Revenues due to COVID-19 Pandemic

People stand in line in front of a bakery in Khartoum. (AFP)
People stand in line in front of a bakery in Khartoum. (AFP)

Sudan’s revenues dropped 40 percent after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the government continues to subsidize wheat and medicine, estimated at millions of dollars annually.

The Sovereign Council and the government approved in a joint meeting the revised budget of 2020 with a decrease in public revenues and increase in spending.

Government spokesman, Information Minister Feisal Mohamed Saleh said that the changes in the budget were necessary to mitigate the negative impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the economy.

The constitutional document governing the transitional period in the country granted the Sovereign Council and the cabinet the right to pass laws until the Transitional Legislative Council is formed.

The government approved a gradual adjustment of the exchange rates of the dollar and the customs rate of the dollar over a period of two years “until the real price has been reached”.

Observers said the move comes within the government’s attempt to float the national currency.

On Monday, the Sudanese pound traded at SDG143 to the dollar in the black market, compared to the official exchange rate of SDG55 set by the Central Bank.

The transitional authority expects these measures to lead to an 8-point growth by the end of this year, which would also help in controlling the inflation that reached 136.36 percent in June.

The government allowed the private sector to import oil and gasoline to help resolve the fuel crisis, which has been growing for months.

Economic expert Khaled al-Tijani explained that many countries were forced to set austerity measures and reduce expenditures to counter the effects of the pandemic, but the Sudanese government increased expenditures, most of which were allocated to state employee wages.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Tijani estimated that the deficit announced by the government would reach SDG254 billion, adding that it would have to print more money to finance the deficit, which would lead to high inflation rates and a devaluation of the currency.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted Sudan’s economy to shrink by 8 points due to the pandemic, in addition to the economic and social repercussions which it described as horrific.

The government is determined to resolve the economic crisis that grew under the ousted regime, however, its policies were so far unsuccessful in alleviating the deteriorating living conditions.

In July, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announced a cabinet reshuffle including the Finance Minister, Ibrahim al-Badawi, whose extensive relations with international institutions helped organize an international conference of Sudan's friends to provide the necessary economic support.

The Sovereign Council and the government approved in 2019 the budget, with revenues amounting to SDG568.3 billion, while current expenditures amounted to SDG584.4 billion with a deficit of about SDG16.1 billion.



IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
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IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.

Georgieva said the US economy was doing "quite a bit better" than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.

With inflation moving closer to the US Federal Reserve's target, and data showing a stable labor market, the Fed could afford to wait for more data before undertaking further interest rate cuts, she said. Overall, interest rates were expected to stay "somewhat higher for quite some time," she said.

The IMF will release an update to its global outlook on Jan. 17, just days before Trump takes office. Georgieva's comments are the first indication this year of the IMF's evolving global outlook, but she gave no detailed projections.

In October, the IMF raised its 2024 economic growth forecasts for the US, Brazil and Britain but cut them for China, Japan and the euro zone, citing risks from potential new trade wars, armed conflicts and tight monetary policy.

At the time, it left its forecast for 2024 global growth unchanged at the 3.2% projected in July, and lowered its global forecast for 3.2% growth in 2025 by one-tenth of a percentage point, warning that global medium-term growth would fade to 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend.

"Not surprisingly, given the size and role of the US economy, there is keen interest globally in the policy directions of the incoming administration, in particular on tariffs, taxes, deregulation and government efficiency," Georgieva said.

"This uncertainty is particularly high around the path for trade policy going forward, adding to the headwinds facing the global economy, especially for countries and regions that are more integrated in global supply chains, medium-sized economies, (and) Asia as a region."

Georgieva said it was "very unusual" that this uncertainty was expressed in higher long-term interest rates even though short-term interest rates had gone down, a trend not seen in recent history.

The IMF saw divergent trends in different regions, with growth expected to stall somewhat in the European Union and to weaken "a little" in India, while Brazil was facing somewhat higher inflation, Georgieva said.

In China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, the IMF was seeing deflationary pressure and ongoing challenges with domestic demand, she said.

Lower-income countries, despite reform efforts, were in a position where any new shocks would hit them "quite negatively," she said.

Georgieva said it was notable that higher interest rates needed to combat inflation had not pushed the global economy into recession, but headline inflation developments were divergent, which meant central bankers needed to carefully monitor local data.

The strong US dollar could potentially result in higher funding costs for emerging market economies and especially low-income countries, she said.

Most countries needed to cut fiscal spending after high outlays during the COVID pandemic and adopt reforms to boost growth in a durable way, she said, adding that in most cases this could be done while protecting their growth prospects.

"Countries cannot borrow their way out. They can only grow out of this problem," she said, noting that the medium-growth prospects for the world were the lowest seen in decades.