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Conflict Rages over ‘Weapons and Heart’ of Tribes in Northeastern Syria

SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
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Conflict Rages over ‘Weapons and Heart’ of Tribes in Northeastern Syria

SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.
SDF commander Abdi Mazloum, wearing a traditional Arab dress, meets tribal leaders in Syria.

The conflict that kicked off in mid-2019 between international and regional powers to win over the tribes of northeastern Syria intensified in recent days after the assassination of a senior figure in the Al-Uqaydat tribe, one of the largest in the Deir Ezzour province.

A look at the past
Backed by the US-led international coalition, the Kurdish-Arab Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the town of Baghouz, in Deir Ezzour, from ISIS in March 2019. Weeks later, protests erupted in the region east of the Euphrates, demanding an improvement in services and a halt to the “export” of oil to regions held by the Damascus regime. The SDF controls about 185 square kilometers, or nearly a third of Syria, 90 percent of the country’s oilfields, half of its gas fields, its three largest dams and most agricultural territories.

The majority of influential players in Syria have tried to win these tribes over to their side. These efforts have led to the tribes striking alliances with various forces: One alliance was struck with the SDF, another with Ankara and the third with Damascus. Tehran, meanwhile, attempted to offer “attractive packages” to Syrian youths to recruit them to its militias.

The Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat, which was formed in 2017, supported the Deir Ezzour protests that erupted against SDF. Ankara, meanwhile, supported the establishment of the Supreme Council of Syrian Tribes and Clans in December 2018. These clans and tribes voiced their support for the Turkish operations against the SDF.

On the other end, figures close to Damascus, including Hussam Qaterji, sponsored a conference for the Deir Ezzour tribes. The event was held in the Aleppo countryside and vowed to provide 5,000 fighters at a time when Iran was present militarily in Deir Ezzour. The al-Baqir brigade announced the formation of “resistance tribal units” aimed at expelling foreign forces from Syria.

New factors
A number of major and minor developments had taken place in recent months, which shifted attention to northeastern Syria. The first was US President Donald Trump’s announcement that he will keep a number of American forces in the region east of the Euphrates River after he had initially announced that he was pulling out the troops from the country. The second was the continuation of Israeli raids against “Iranian positions” in the Deir Ezzour and Albukamal regions. The third was Russia testing just how committed Washington was to maintaining its forces by its repeated attempts to reach the Iraqi border.

On the internal scene, and after months of secret American and French-sponsored negotiations, the two most prominent Kurdish parties in northeastern Syria succeeded in reaching preliminary agreements that guarantee the commitment to the Hewler (Erbil) pact. Deep differences between the Kurdish National Council and Democratic Union alliance had thwarted the implementation of the pact.

Another development was the declaration by Syria's Tomorrow Movement, headed by Ahmed al-Jarba, of the formation of the new Peace and Freedom Front. The front includes the Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat, Assyrian Democratic Organization and Kurdish National Council. Leaders of the front said it includes Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian forces on the ground in order to underscore the ties and cooperation between them. They acknowledged the role of the SDF, but said that it alone cannot rule the region.

A delegation from the Peace and Freedom Front recently met with American officials in the region east of the Euphrates. One of its leaders told Asharq Al-Awsat that the delegation received positive responses from the US, which was keen on establishing a partnership that the Syrian people deserve.

Commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, had on his end held a number of meetings with tribal leaders from Deir Ezzour to listen to their demands.

Another significant development was US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Senator Lindsey Graham’s announcement of a partnership deal between the US Delta Crescent Energy company and SDF to invest in oil in the region east of the Euphrates with the possibility of exporting it. Observers interpreted the move as American recognition of the Kurdish autonomous administration, significantly since the agreement, which deals with national Syrian resources, does not involve Damascus.

Amid all of these developments, Sheikh Muttshar al-Hifl, a senior Al-Uqaydat tribe member, was assassinated in Deir Ezzour in early August.

Raging conflict
The autonomous administration and SDF did not comment on the oil deal, but Ankara, Damascus, Tehran and Moscow were quick to denounce it as a “violation of Syria’s sovereignty” and “theft” of its resources. The deal and Hifl’s assassination have added fuel to the raging conflict between local, regional and international forces over the Deir Ezzour tribes.

The SDF denied its involvement in the murder and instead implied that the regime was involved. It has arrested a number of suspects and investigations are ongoing with them, said a Kurdish official. “The tribes are politically disorganized and the region was liberated from ISIS only a year ago,” he added. “We are tasked with providing security to hold elections and help the tribes organize themselves.”

Meanwhile, the “Al-Uqaydat Zubaid” tribe announced on Monday the formation of a military council aimed at “liberating the region.” It hailed the “heroics of the Syrian Arab Army” and saluted “the friends of Syria and their support of the war against terrorism led by president Bashar Assad.” Another group, called the “Al-Uqaydat tribe” issued a statement “thanking the Turkish command, government and army for what it has offered to the Syrian people.” It thanked them for meeting a series of demands, including having the US cease its support to the SDF, handing over the region to its people and rejecting demographic change.

The Arab Council in Al Jazeera and Al Furat was quick to condemn Hifl’s assassination. But the most significant reaction to the murder came from Ibrahim al-Hifl, Sheikh of the Al-Uqaydat Zubaid tribe, who was wounded in the attack. In a statement on Tuesday, he held the international coalition “fully” responsible for the developments in the region, demanding that it turn it over to the people and that the Arabs play their role “in full” in the area. He gave the coalition a month to meet the demands and hand over the perpetrators.

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Here’s What to Watch as Election Day Approaches in the US

People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
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Here’s What to Watch as Election Day Approaches in the US

People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)
People cast their ballots on the last day of early voting for the general election in Michigan at the Livingston Educational Service Agency in Howell, Michigan on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

Election Day is nearly upon us. In a matter of hours, the final votes in the 2024 presidential election will be cast.

In a deeply divided nation, the election is a true toss-up between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

We know there are seven battleground states that will decide the outcome, barring a major surprise. But major questions persist about the timing of the results, the makeup of the electorate, the influx of misinformation — even the possibility of political violence. At the same time, both sides are prepared for a protracted legal battle that could complicate things further.

Here's what to watch on the eve of Election Day 2024:

History will be made either way

Given all the twists and turns in recent months, it's easy to overlook the historical significance of this election.

Harris would become the first female president in the United States' 248-year history. She would also be the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold the office. Harris and her campaign have largely played down gender and race fearing that they might alienate some supporters. But the significance of a Harris win would not be lost on historians.

A Trump victory would represent a different kind of historical accomplishment. He would become the first person convicted of a felony elected to the US presidency, having been convicted of 34 felony counts in a New York hush-money case little more than five months ago.

Trump, who is still facing felony charges in at least two separate criminal cases, argued that he is the victim of a politicized justice system. And tens of millions of voters apparently believe him — or they're willing to overlook his extraordinary legal baggage.

US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally at Michigan State University's Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

How long will it take to know the winner? Election Day in the United States is now often considered election week as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots — not to mention the legal challenges — that can delay the results. But the truth is, nobody knows how long it will take for the winner to be announced this time.

In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden the winner on Saturday afternoon — four days after polls closed. But even then, The AP called North Carolina for Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after hand recounts.

Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polls closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

This time, both campaigns believe the race is extremely close across the seven swing states that are expected to decide the election, barring a major surprise: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of the map and the tightness of the race make it hard to predict when a winner could be declared.

Where can I find early clues about how the contest might unfold? Look to two East Coast battleground states, North Carolina and Georgia, where the results could come in relatively quickly. That doesn't mean we'll get the final results in those states quickly if the returns are close, but they are the first swing states that might offer a sense of what kind of night we're in for.

To go deeper, look to urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast, where Democrats have made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Harris’ margins in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties, home to the state capital of Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how much Trump will need to squeeze out of the less-populated rural areas he has dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs heavy turnout in deep blue Philadelphia, but she's also looking to boost the Democrats’ advantage in the arc of suburban counties to the north and west of the city. She has campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved on Clinton’s 2016 winning margins. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of Pennsylvania’s vote.

Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump needs to blunt Democratic growth in Michigan's key suburban counties outside of Detroit, especially Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Wisconsin's Waukesha County outside of Milwaukee.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pumps his fist after speaking at the end of a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024. (AFP)

Where are the candidates? Trump will likely spend the very early hours of Election Day in Michigan, where he is scheduled to hold a final late-night rally in Grand Rapids as has become his tradition.

The Republican candidate plans to spend the rest of the day in Florida, where he is expected to vote in person -- despite previously saying he would vote early. He's scheduled to hold a campaign watch party in Palm Beach Tuesday night.

Harris plans to attend an Election Night party at Howard University in Washington, a historically Black university where she graduated with a degree in economics and political science in 1986 and was an active member of Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority.

Aside from Howard, she has no public schedule announced for Election Day.

Harris said Sunday that she had “just filled out” her mail-in ballot and it was “on its way to California.”

Who's left to show up on Election Day? On the eve of Election Day, it's unclear which voters will show up to cast ballots on Tuesday.

More than 77 million people participated in early voting — either in person or through the mail. So many people already cast ballots that some officials say the polls in states like Georgia might be a “ghost town” on Election Day.

One major reason for the surge is that that Trump has generally encouraged his supporters to vote early this time, a reversal from 2020 when he called on Republicans to vote only in-person on Election Day. The early vote numbers confirm that millions of Republicans have heeded Trump's call in recent weeks.

The key question, however, is whether the surge of Republicans who voted early this time will ultimately cannibalize the number of Republicans who show up on Tuesday.

There are also shifts on the Democratic side. Four years ago, as the pandemic lingered, Democrats overwhelmingly cast their ballots early. But this time around, without the public health risk, it's likely that more Democrats will show up in person on Election Day.

That balance on both sides is critical as we try to understand the early returns. And it's on the campaigns to know which voters they still need to turn out on Tuesday. On that front, Democrats may have an advantage.

Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee have outsourced much of their get-out-the-vote operation to outside groups, including one funded largely by billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk that’s facing new questions about its practices. Harris’ campaign, by contrast, is running a more traditional operation that features more than 2,500 paid staffers and 357 offices in battleground states alone.

Chocolate bars with the faces of Democratic presidential nominee US Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump are displayed at a store in John F. Kennedy International Airport, New York, US, October 25, 2024. (Reuters)

Could there be unrest? Trump has been aggressively promoting baseless claims in recent days questioning the integrity of the election. He falsely insists that he can lose only if Democrats cheat, even as polls show that show the race is a true toss-up.

Trump could again claim victory on election night regardless of the results, just as he did in 2020.

Such rhetoric can have serious consequences as the nation saw when Trump loyalists stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 in one of the darkest days in modern American history. And unfortunately, there is still a potential of further violence this election season.

The Republican National Committee will have thousands of “election integrity” poll monitors in place on Tuesday searching for any signs of fraud, which critics fear could lead to harassment of voters or election workers. In some key voting places, officials have requested the presence of sheriff deputies in addition to bulletproof glass and panic buttons that connect poll managers to a local 911 dispatcher.

At the same time, Trump allies note that he has faced two assassination attempts in recent months that raise the possibility of further threats against him. And police in Washington and other cities are preparing for the possibility of serious Election Day unrest.

As always, it's worth noting that a broad coalition of top government and industry officials, many of them Republicans, found that the 2020 election was the “most secure” in American history.”