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Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
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Israeli Intelligence Warns of PA Collapse

Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)
Members of Palestinian Hamas security forces wear protective gear as precaution against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (Reuters)

Iran and the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are two threats facing Israel, according to Brigadier General Dror Shalom, head of the Research Division of Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate.

Shalom told Yedioth Ahronoth daily that the threat of terrorism is increasing especially that the youth in Judea and Samaria, in the West Bank, can’t earn a living amid the coronavirus pandemic and its economic repercussions.

He highlighted three main reasons that contributed to maintaining stability including the Israeli army, the “somehow acceptable” economic situation, and the security coordination with the Palestinians before it was suspended.

The official indicated that despite signing two peace treaties with the UAE and Bahrain, the Palestinian cause is a “ticking bomb”.

He explained that the Palestinian cause brings Arab states together, and the two peace treaties were signed because the plans to annex parts of the West Bank were postponed.

“Empowering the Palestinian Authority is within the interest of Israel’s security," said Shalom, warning that Arabs still hate Israel and “the situation in the region should be improved."

Asked about the situation in the Gaza Strip, Shalom said it remains a challenge even if it is a “secondary front" now.

The official admitted that the situation could escalate, noting that four years ago, the Israeli intelligence issued a strategic alert on the Strip.

Studies showed there is a civil-economic crisis in Gaza, which would push Hamas to change its policy, noted Shalom.

He also said Hamas chief in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar is a different kind of leader who is interested in showing his success in reconstructing Gaza, adding that Sinwar does not seek a war in the Strip and Hamas is fully aware of the strength of the Israeli army.

Shalom indicated that Tel Aviv managed to push Hamas into “rock-bottom” without engaging in a war, adding that maintaining the current situation in Gaza is favorable so that Israel can focus on Iran.

On Iran, Shalom said that so far, the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal has not served Israel's interests. He supports a strategy of pressuring Tehran, noting that Iran as a superpower has weakened.

The future US strategy includes exerting maximum pressure until reaching a deal.

Iran is capable of possessing a nuclear bomb within two years of its decision to build one, which worries Shalom, given that the duration is not long.

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Arab World

Moscow Open to Dialogue with Trump on Syria

The Russian Foreign Minister during a meeting last week in the Kazakh capital, Astana (Reuters)
The Russian Foreign Minister during a meeting last week in the Kazakh capital, Astana (Reuters)
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Moscow Open to Dialogue with Trump on Syria

The Russian Foreign Minister during a meeting last week in the Kazakh capital, Astana (Reuters)
The Russian Foreign Minister during a meeting last week in the Kazakh capital, Astana (Reuters)

Russia, Iran, and Türkiye have called for an end to Israel’s military escalation in the Middle East, expressing concern over the worsening regional situation and warning of negative impacts on Syria.
At the conclusion of the 22nd round of Syria talks in Astana, Kazakhstan, the three countries reaffirmed their commitment to a political solution, focused on restarting the work of the Constitutional Committee.
The escalation in the region, combined with the uncertainty following US President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, was a major topic of discussion in Astana, both during bilateral talks and in broader sessions.
The Russian delegation was led by Alexander Lavrentiev, Special Representative for Syria, while Iran’s delegation was headed by Ali Asghar Haji, Senior Political Advisor to the Foreign Minister. Türkiye’s delegation was led by Ambassador Ihsan Mustafa Yurdakul, Director-General for Syrian Affairs at the Foreign Ministry.
The Syrian government delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Ayman Riad, and the opposition delegation, led by Ahmad Tohme, were also present.
Representatives from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), along with observers from Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, attended the talks.
UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen was also present.
Sources at the meetings told Asharq Al-Awsat that much of the discussion focused on the impact of ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon and their effects on Syria, particularly amid Israel’s efforts to expand the conflict.
There was a strong emphasis on preventing Syria from becoming further embroiled in the growing conflict. Additionally, the impact of Trump’s election on US policy towards the region and Syria was widely discussed, with increasing speculation that Trump might follow through on promises to withdraw US troops from Syria.
This issue was highlighted by Russia’s envoy, Lavrentiev, at the close of the talks.
Lavrentiev stated that Russia is open to talks with the new US administration once it is in place to discuss issues related to Syria.
“If there are proposals, Russia is open and ready to continue communication with the US,” he added.
According to Lavrentiev, “Some compromises can only be reached through negotiations.”
A source from the Syrian opposition, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, said there is a shared view that a US withdrawal from Syria is “not inevitable, even if Trump has mentioned it.”
The source noted that Trump has become more pragmatic and responsive to the "deep state," with a better understanding of foreign policy.
The source also pointed out that Türkiye shares this view. While Ankara wants the US to leave, it does not want a unilateral withdrawal without coordination, especially since the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are open to talks with both the Syrian government and Russia.

The discussions also highlighted that, despite Israel's efforts to reduce Iranian influence in the region, it is unlikely that Trump will push for a withdrawal under the current situation.