New Archaeological Finds in Saudi Arabia’s AlUla Fill ‘Missing Links’ in Region’s History

Experts are beginning to fill in missing links in our understanding of AlUla's human history with new discoveries.
Experts are beginning to fill in missing links in our understanding of AlUla's human history with new discoveries.
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New Archaeological Finds in Saudi Arabia’s AlUla Fill ‘Missing Links’ in Region’s History

Experts are beginning to fill in missing links in our understanding of AlUla's human history with new discoveries.
Experts are beginning to fill in missing links in our understanding of AlUla's human history with new discoveries.

Amid a vast and enigmatic monumental landscape, forgotten kingdoms and layers of history, archaeologists are only just beginning to reveal the secrets of this heritage jewel in northwest Saudi Arabia. As winter approaches and international travel allows, archaeological work is resuming in AlUla, a historically rich region that has been relatively untouched in comparison to similar places.

In what has become one of the world’s most active archaeological explorations, experts are beginning to fill in missing links in our understanding of the region’s human history with new discoveries – and further announcements are expected soon.

AlUla is a region of deserts and arid mountains. Yet, crucially, amid this hard landscape is a fertile oasis valley that has long sustained life and the wider area has drawn people and civilizations for more than 200,000 years. As a result, while AlUla is best known for the Nabataean tombs of Hegra, Saudi Arabia’s first UNESCO World Heritage site, over 27,000 other archaeological sites have been identified within its borders with more set to be discovered and recorded in the coming months.

“Northwestern Arabia has often been overlooked as a place of cultural and civilizational importance in and of itself,” explains Dr. Rebecca Foote, Director of Archaeology and Cultural Heritage Research at the Royal Commission for AlUla (RCU).

“For many years, its importance has been eclipsed by the nearby Fertile Crescent, riverine Mesopotamia, and Egypt, and the marine civilizations along the Red Sea. AlUla was seen as just a region people passed through. However, we’re now learning that AlUla was more than just a place to transit, it was a true nexus and a home for complex communities across thousands of years.”

Archaeologists, conservators, photogrammeters and other specialists are returning to AlUla, following the Covid-19 lockdown, and resuming their fieldwork. Despite the geographical size of AlUla (22,561 sq km) and the scope of heritage contained within, it is only in the last few years that AlUla has seen more than limited archaeological exploration.

That has changed thanks to archaeologists of the RCU – the governmental body charged with developing and administering the region – and the teams it organizes, tapping experts from Saudi and international universities, research institutes, museums and other professionals, as well as the French teams that the Agence française pour le développement d’AlUla (AFALULA), a key partner, brings.

Thanks to the recent work, this “jewel in the heritage crown of Saudi Arabia” is beginning to fill in the missing links of the region's development and the generations that have crossed it, and whose descendants still inhabit it. And, as 2021 approaches, more of AlUla’s heritage treasures will be revealed to the world through television documentaries, the touring Wonders of Arabia exhibition (previously hosted at the Institut du monde Arabe in Paris) and the re-opening of AlUla itself. Visitors will soon be able to journey through time and across one of the world’s largest archaeological sites, experiencing a landscape that has been inhabited for over 200,000 years.

Early human habitation
RCU’s discoveries have established that prehistoric peoples of AlUla hunted and grazed in AlUla in a greener land than today. New findings in the mysterious, vast, and previously unexplored, monumental landscape they and generations after left behind suggest their culture was far more complex than once thought.

Using satellite imagery, aerial photography, ground survey and old-fashioned digging, archaeologists can now appreciate the sheer number of stone structures built in the late prehistoric period (circa 5200-1200 BCE) across AlUla’s lowlands, uplands and harrat (lava flows). The size, locations, and numbers of these monuments point to a degree of community cooperation previously undetected, and evidence that some of these sites were used for ritual may change our view of these prehistoric peoples’ interior life altogether.

One of these structure types, which seems to one of the oldest, has been named “mustatil” (rectangle, in Arabic), some of which are hundreds of meters long. Another style of structures is referred to as “pendant.” These usually feature a ringed cairn main burial with a ‘tail’ of associated structures (that resembles jewellery from the air, hence the name). Exact details of the use of these constructions remains elusive; the people of this time left no writing, and excavations have unearthed surprisingly few tools, pottery or other small items that might indicate their specific usage.

The purpose of pendants seems clearly to have been funerary, tombs as well as memorial cenotaphs. But with the graves mostly disturbed long ago – perhaps only soon after the burials – the identities and significance of those who once lay within remains unknown.

Were these local leaders? Religious figures? Or were the tombs reused, the bones within the large main ringed burial moved out to the smaller structures with each new generation? We may never know for sure, but the location of many of these funerary complexes on mountain tops overlooking the lands of AlUla does suggest the people interacting with and appreciating the world around them. By affording their ancestors such vaulted locations, they may have been appreciating the natural beauty of their home territories – not just a landscape through which they were passing.

For the mustatils, the findings from the first excavations which are currently being analyzed. Leading experts to believe they held rituals for the people of AlUla, but what those rituals were remain a mystery. Others may also have marked the boundaries of territories - the search for evidence continues.

“Our investigation of these mustatils, pendants, and other prehistoric structures are giving us a tantalizing glimpse into the region around 7,000 years ago and for several millennia thereafter,” explains Dr. Foote. “We could be looking at early expressions of ownership and property, if indeed the structures functioned primarily or secondarily as boundary markers – in keeping with a people grazing herds in addition to hunting wild animals.”

“We’re only just beginning our own journey through time by identifying, recording and collecting datable samples from these sites to gain a chronology of this prehistory. By conducting intensive survey and targeted excavations at some of the more significant among these numerous sites we are gaining great insights about function too,” she added.

“This broad targeted approach has not been undertaken before in AlUla, and we’re raising even more questions as we do so. But what is certain is that we can now recognize AlUla as among the oldest monumental landscapes in the world. For its inhabitants, AlUla was a home – a place of ancestors, of natural resources and of beauty – and these people’s lives were more complex than we had previously imagined.”

Early North Arabian kingdoms
Over 4,000 years after the peoples of the mustatil and yet still over 2,000 years ago, the ancient North Arabian Kingdoms of Dadan and Lihyan controlled AlUla from circa 900 BCE to 100 CE. It was a crossroads of trading routes, bringing incense from southern Arabia to Egypt, Syria and Mesopotamia. AlUla was vital as both a place where traders and other travelers could replenish food and water and as a gateway for the precious aromatics to reach beyond Arabia.

Dr. Abdulrahman Alsuhaibani, Associate Professor of Archaeology at King Saud University and Acting Director of Museums and Exhibitions at RCU, and the team he co-directs, are excavating several key areas within the site of Dadan, including tombs and a newly discovered residential area, to answer a number of questions about these mysterious vanished kingdoms. How and when precisely did each kingdom rise to power? What were their major achievements? What was the relationship between the two? Were they one people and one land but ruled by two separate consecutive kingdoms? Or were they separate peoples and kingdoms? And, perhaps most fascinating of all, what caused the Lihyanite Kingdom to so abruptly disappear and when?

“It may have been an earthquake or another natural disaster, but we don’t have any confirmed evidence yet,” suggests Dr Alsuhaibani. “The Lihyanite people left to integrate with another people elsewhere. Or it may have been a political shift, begun or exacerbated by the arrival of the Nabataeans possibly from the north. But if it was due to the Nabataean arrival, that raises even more questions.”

“We know some of the Lihyanite peoples continued to live under the Nabataeans; their dialects come through in inscriptions and design details from Lihyanite funerary architecture is repeated in the Nabataean monuments. Yet the Nabataeans normally detailed chronicles of their own history and say almost nothing about the Lihyanite Kingdom. Ultimately, learning more about this long-lasting and far-reaching civilization – one of the forgotten powers of Arabia – could change our understanding of the entire region.”

As gateways and gatekeepers, these kingdoms held power and influence across the region, Dr. Alsuhaibani, RCU’s expert on this period, explains further: “All the evidence we have so far points to these kingdoms, the Lihyanite Kingdom in particular, being regional powers. Dadan is mentioned in the Bible and an Aramaic inscription attests to it being an equal to the powerful Kingdom of Saba (popularly known as Sheba) in the south of the Arabian peninsula.”

“The Lihyanite Kingdom was one of the largest of its time, stretching from Madinah in the south up to Aqaba in modern day Jordan in the north. Other regional kingdoms maintained embassies there and people made offerings to the kingdom’s gods in temples beyond its borders. The two kingdoms lasted around 900 years – almost three times as long as the famous Nabataean Kingdom in AlUla – and yet, we know almost nothing else about these two kingdoms, in particular their rise and fall. We’re really taking our first steps here.”

The Islamic period
After the fall of the Lihyanite Kingdom, AlUla became the principal southern city of the Nabataean Kingdom, inscriptions attesting to the movement of families and individuals from Petra to the AlUla and also give us the proper name of Hegra, before the arrival of the Romans who named the region Arabia Petraea (“rocky Arabia”). In 622 CE, the birth of Islam brought another sea-change.

Arabia suddenly became the cradle of a new religion and a new culture with it. AlUla’s history was already a part of this through its place in the pre-Islamic evolution of the Hijazi Arabic script (itself influenced by the Nabataean script) that later carried Islam’s message, but its present and future rapidly became a vital part of the new Islamic world as a stopping point on the pilgrimage to Makkah, at Qurh. Thanks to its importance on pilgrim routes, this city in AlUla was an important part of the early Islamic empire. Indeed, one early commander, Musa bin Nusayr, after whom a nearby citadel is commonly known, achieved fame as one of the leaders of the Islamic conquest of the Iberian Peninsula, in 711 CE, being the first “Waly” (governor) of the new territory of AlAndalus, between 714 and 716.

AlUla Old Town followed Qurh to become the vital commercial center of the AlUla Valley after the 12th century CE, drawing on its fertile soils, abundant water, and links from the Red Sea into the heart of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as links north to south. AlUla Old Town flourished and its people with it. Even now, its centuries-old mosques stand as a testament to the town’s importance to the birth, spread, and vibrant life of Islam.

RCU is in the process of conserving AlUla Old Town, working with the community to understand the original construction methods used there and recording oral histories passed down through generations of AlUla inhabitants, the long-term custodians of AlUla’s history, to learn more about how the town functioned and its people lived.

Michael Jones, Cultural Heritage Conservation Manager at RCU, has been working with the community and international experts on this conservation.

“AlUla’s Old Town really is a time capsule. Walking its streets one can literally see the layers of history - one building built out of or into another, the town’s fabric being rebuilt, refreshed and revitalized every generation or so,” he said. “And as well as the more distant history, we’re also discovering how people lived up to the point they left Old Town in the late 1970s and early 1980s from the items they left behind – sewing machines, tea pots, and coins from the early days of the modern Saudi kingdom for example – and with the oral history that we’re recording we’re able to re-establish that missing link between modern AlUla and its past.”

Today – The missing links between us and our ancestors
With the community at the center and so closely involved in this way, AlUla is truly a place where history and heritage are coming back to life. And that is a key goal of RCU’s heritage and development work in AlUla: growing the region as a “living museum” where visitors can encounter the different civilizations and cultures who have called the place home – or just passed through – and left their mark. Indeed, RCU is preparing to launch its Living Museum website, an online portal to AlUla’s past.

By simply clicking a web-link visitors to AUla will be able to see these missing links for themselves – even if they cannot yet visit in person. This Living Museum resource will also be a way for RCU’s conservation and archaeological teams to keep the public updated of their new findings, once they have passed through academic review.

“Conservation and Archaeology are about maintaining that chain of human knowledge and experience,” said Michael Jones, reflecting on RCU’s work. “Our work in AlUla is an amazing example of that. We’re looking at more than 200,000 years of human experience here. We’re filling in gaps – those missing links – to connect us to that past, but our work is also about connecting with the future.”

“The knowledge we’re gaining now and sharing through papers, museums, and in conversations with the community will also belong to future generations. These future generations will look back on what we’re doing, just as we’re looking back, and I believe that all this will be as vital to them as looking back on our past is for us.”



Why Greenland Is Strategically Important to Arctic Security

Houses covered by snow are seen on the coast of a sea inlet of Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
Houses covered by snow are seen on the coast of a sea inlet of Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
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Why Greenland Is Strategically Important to Arctic Security

Houses covered by snow are seen on the coast of a sea inlet of Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)
Houses covered by snow are seen on the coast of a sea inlet of Nuuk, Greenland, on March 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Evgeniy Maloletka, File)

Location, location, location: Greenland’s position above the Arctic Circle makes the world’s largest island a key part of security strategy.

Increasing international tensions, global warming and the changing world economy have put Greenland at the heart of the debate over global trade and security, and US President Donald Trump wants to make sure his country controls the mineral-rich island that guards the Arctic and North Atlantic approaches to North America.

Greenland is a self-governing territory of Denmark, a longtime US ally that has rejected Trump’s overtures. Greenland’s own government also opposes US designs on the island, saying the people of Greenland will decide their own future.

The island, 80% of which lies above the Arctic Circle, is home to about 56,000 mostly Inuit people who until now have been largely ignored by the rest of the world.

Here’s why Greenland is strategically important to Arctic security:

Greenland’s location is key

Greenland sits off the northeastern coast of Canada, with more than two-thirds of its territory lying within the Arctic Circle. That has made it crucial to the defense of North America since World War II, when the US occupied Greenland to ensure it didn’t fall into the hands of Nazi Germany and to protect crucial North Atlantic shipping lanes.

Following the Cold War, the Arctic was largely an area of international cooperation. But climate change is thinning the Arctic ice, promising to create a northwest passage for international trade and reigniting competition with Russia, China and other countries over access to the region’s mineral resources.

Security threats

In 2018, China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in an effort to gain more influence in the region. China has also announced plans to build a “Polar Silk Road” as part of its global Belt and Road Initiative, which has created economic links with countries around the world.

Then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rejected China’s move, saying: “Do we want the Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing territorial claims?”

Meanwhile, Russia has sought to assert its influence over wide areas of the Arctic in competition with the US, Canada, Denmark and Norway. Moscow has also sought to boost its military presence in the polar region, home to its Northern Fleet and a site where the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons. Russian military officials have said that the site is ready for resuming the tests, if necessary.

Russia's military has been restoring old Soviet infrastructure in the Arctic and building new facilities. Since 2014, the Russian military has opened several military bases in the Arctic and worked on reconstructing airfields.

European leaders’ concerns have been heightened since Russia launched a war in Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Moscow is worried about NATO’s activities in the Arctic and will respond by strengthening the capability of its armed forces there. But he said that Moscow was holding the door open to broader international cooperation in the region.

US military presence

The US Department of Defense operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland, which was built after the US and Denmark signed the Defense of Greenland Treaty in 1951. It supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the US and NATO.

Greenland also guards part of what is known as the GIUK (Greenland, Iceland, United Kingdom) Gap, where NATO monitors Russian naval movements in the North Atlantic.

Thomas Crosbie, an associate professor of military operations at the Royal Danish Defense College, said that an American takeover wouldn't improve upon Washington’s current security strategy.

“The United States will gain no advantage if its flag is flying in Nuuk (Greenland's capital) versus the Greenlandic flag,” he told The Associated Press. “There’s no benefits to them because they already enjoy all of the advantages they want.

"If there’s any specific security access that they want to improve American security, they’ll be given it as a matter of course, as a trusted ally. So this has nothing to do with improving national security for the United States.”

Denmark’s parliament approved a bill last June to allow US military bases on Danish soil. It widened a previous military agreement, made in 2023 with the Biden administration, where US troops had broad access to Danish air bases in the Scandinavian country.

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, in a response to lawmakers’ questions, wrote over the summer that Denmark would be able to terminate the agreement if the US tries to annex all or part of Greenland.

Danish armed forces in Greenland

Denmark is moving to strengthen its military presence around Greenland and in the wider North Atlantic. Last year, the government announced a roughly 14.6 billion-kroner ($2.3 billion) agreement with parties including the governments of Greenland and the Faroe Islands, another self-governing territory of Denmark, to “improve capabilities for surveillance and maintaining sovereignty in the region.”

The plan includes three new Arctic naval vessels, two additional long-range surveillance drones and satellite capacity.

Denmark’s Joint Arctic Command is headquartered in Nuuk, and tasked with the “surveillance, assertion of sovereignty and military defense of Greenland and the Faroe Islands,” according to its website. It has smaller satellite stations across the island.

The Sirius Dog Sled Patrol, an elite Danish naval unit that conducts long-range reconnaissance and enforces Danish sovereignty in the Arctic wilderness, is also stationed in Greenland.

Mineral wealth

Greenland is also a rich source of the so-called rare earth minerals that are a key component of cellphones, computers, batteries and other high-tech gadgets that are expected to power the world’s economy in the coming decades.

That has attracted the interest of the US and other Western powers as they try to ease China’s dominance of the market for these critical minerals.

Development of Greenland’s mineral resources is challenging because of the island’s harsh climate, while strict environmental controls have proved an additional hurdle for potential investors.


Protest-Hit Iran Warily Watches the US After its Raid on Venezuela

Iranians protest a 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Sept. 20, 2022, in this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran. (AP Photo/ File)
Iranians protest a 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Sept. 20, 2022, in this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran. (AP Photo/ File)
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Protest-Hit Iran Warily Watches the US After its Raid on Venezuela

Iranians protest a 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Sept. 20, 2022, in this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran. (AP Photo/ File)
Iranians protest a 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini's death after she was detained by the morality police, in Tehran, Sept. 20, 2022, in this photo taken by an individual not employed by the Associated Press and obtained by the AP outside Iran. (AP Photo/ File)

Iran faces a new round of protests challenging the country's theocracy, but it seems like the only thing people there want to talk about is half a world away: Venezuela.

Since the US military seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a longtime ally of Tehran, over the weekend, Iranian state media headlines and officials have condemned the operation. In the streets and even in some official conversations, however, there's a growing question over whether a similar mission could target the country's top officials including the supreme leader, 86-year-old Ali Khamenei.

The paranoia feeds into wider worries among Iranians. Many fear that close US ally Israel will target Iran again as it did during the 12-day war it launched against Tehran in June. Israel killed a slew of top military officials and nuclear scientists, and the US bombed Iranian nuclear enrichment sites. Khamenei is believed to have gone into hiding for his protection.

“God bless our leader, we should be careful too," said Saeed Seyyedi, a 57-year-old teacher in Tehran, worried the US could act as it did in Venezuela.

"The US has always been after plots against Iran, especially when issues like oil, Israel are part of the case. In addition, it can be complicated when it is mixed with the Russia-Ukraine war, the Lebanese (group) Hezbollah and drug accusations.”

The US long has accused the Iranian-backed Hezbollah of running drug-smuggling operations to fund its operations, including in Latin America, which the group denies.

‘Please pray’

Immediately after Maduro’s seizure, an analyst on Iranian state television claimed, without offering evidence, that the US and Israel had plans during the war last year to kidnap Iranian officials with a team of dual-national Iranians. Even for conspiracy-minded Iranian television, airing such a claim is unusual.

Then on Sunday night, the prominent cleric Mohammad Ali Javedan warned an audience at prayers in Tehran University that Khamenei's life was in danger.

“Someone said he had a bad dream that the leader’s life is in danger," Javedan said, without elaborating. "Please pray.”

However, Iran is roughly twice the size of Venezuela and has what analysts consider to be a much stronger military and robust security forces. The memory of Operation Eagle Claw, a failed US special forces mission to rescue hostages held after the 1979 US Embassy takeover in Tehran, also haunts Washington.

Then there's the political situation in Iran, with its theocracy protected by hard-liners within the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, who answer only to Khamenei.

They could launch assassinations, cyberattacks and assaults on shipping in the Middle East, warned Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran’s military.

And crucially, Iran also still has fissile nuclear material.

“In the grand-strategy scheme of things, they need to think about the day after,” Nadimi said of anyone considering a Venezuela-style raid. “Iran is a much more complex political situation. They have to calculate the costs and benefits.”

Not just the Iranians

Others wonder what part of the world the US might take interest in next, while critics have warned about setting a dangerous precedent.

“The regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela,” Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid posted on social media on Saturday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not directly link Maduro's detention to Iran but acknowledged the protests sweeping Tehran and other cities, saying: “It is very possible that we are standing at the moment when the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands.”

Hours before the US action in Venezuela, US President Donald Trump warned Iran that if Tehran “violently kills peaceful protesters” the US “will come to their rescue.”

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denounced the comments by Trump and Netanyahu as an “incitement to violence, terrorism and killing.”

US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican who had been close to Trump but resigned Monday after a falling-out with the president, directly linked the Venezuela operation to Iran.

“The next obvious observation is that by removing Maduro this is a clear move for control over Venezuelan oil supplies that will ensure stability for the next obvious regime change war in Iran," Greene wrote on social media.

‘Make Iran Great Again’

US Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican, put on a “Make Iran Great Again” hat during a Sunday segment on Fox News. He later posted an image showing him and Trump smiling after the president autographed a similar-looking hat.

“I pray and hope that 2026 will be the year that we make Iran great again," Graham said.


Iran at a Critical Crossroads Testing the Survival of its Regime

Burning debris lies in the middle of a street during protests in Hamedan, western Iran, Jan. 1, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)
Burning debris lies in the middle of a street during protests in Hamedan, western Iran, Jan. 1, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)
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Iran at a Critical Crossroads Testing the Survival of its Regime

Burning debris lies in the middle of a street during protests in Hamedan, western Iran, Jan. 1, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)
Burning debris lies in the middle of a street during protests in Hamedan, western Iran, Jan. 1, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)

Iran is confronting one of the most consequential junctures since the founding of the republic in 1979. The pressures bearing down on the system are no longer confined to economic sanctions or familiar forms of external coercion, but now cut to the heart of the governing formula itself: how to ensure the regime’s survival without accelerating the very forces that threaten to undermine it.

At the center of this moment lies a stark existential dilemma. A permissive response to internal unrest risks allowing protests to spread and harden into a protracted campaign of political attrition, while a sweeping security crackdown would heighten external dangers, at a time of mounting international hostility and unprecedented US warnings.

Caught between these two paths, Tehran finds its room for maneuver shrinking to levels it has rarely faced before.

Passing protests or structural shift?

The evolution of the current protests raises a central question about their nature: are they a containable social wave, or a deeper expression of a shift in public mood? The spread of demonstrations to small and medium-sized cities, and the widening of their social base, reflect an advanced level of discontent, even if it has not yet reached the threshold of a comprehensive explosion.

Farzin Nadimi, a senior Iran analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argues that this wave differs from previous ones.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the latest protests, unlike earlier waves led by university students or low-income workers in major cities, are now driven by young people in smaller towns and supported by university students nationwide.

He described them as “more entrenched and widespread,” though not yet as large as some previous protests, noting the absence of government employees and oil workers, alongside a strong female presence once again.

This assessment aligns with the reading of Michael Rubin, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, who pointed to three key differences defining this wave: the nature of the participating forces, the symbolism of its launch from Tehran’s bazaar, and the impact of Israeli strikes that have punctured the aura surrounding Iran.

By contrast, Michael O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, cautions against overestimating the street’s ability to bring about rapid change, noting that the Iranian system is highly organized and does not hesitate to use violence to control society.

‘Political fuel’

Iran’s economic crisis is no longer a technical issue that can be separated from politics. The collapse of the currency, the erosion of purchasing power, and declining trust in institutions have turned the economy into a direct driver of protest.

With each new round of pressure or sanctions, the sense deepens that the system is incapable of delivering real solutions without making political concessions.

Alex Vatanka, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, argues that what is unfolding goes beyond anger over prices or living conditions.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the protests reflect a deeper shift in public opinion, in which opposition is no longer directed at specific policies but at the model of governance itself. This shift, he said, confronts the system with a difficult question: can the economy be saved without rethinking the structure of power?

The security establishment: cohesion or fatigue?

Security institutions, from the Revolutionary Guards and their Basij mobilization arm to the intelligence services, form the backbone of the system’s ability to endure. Historically, these institutions have been the primary guarantor of internal stability, but mounting pressures now raise questions about their moral and ideological cohesion.

Rubin said that cracks are widening, pointing to rumors that Tehran has turned to deploying forces from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and Afghanistan’s Fatemiyoun Brigade due to declining confidence in some Revolutionary Guard units’ willingness to carry out orders.

Vatanka, for his part, acknowledged that these institutions remain cohesive for now, but warned that this cohesion is under growing strain from economic and social exhaustion, which over time could erode morale and produce partial fractures, even if open defections remain unlikely in the foreseeable future.

From deterrence to breaking taboos

If internal challenges are pressing on the structure of power, the external environment multiplies the risks. US-Israeli escalation, coupled with the waning weight of regional allies, places Iran before a radically different strategic landscape.

Threats by US President Donald Trump to support Iranian protesters signal a qualitative shift in US rhetoric, in which the focus is no longer confined to the nuclear program, but now includes Iran’s internal dynamics as part of the pressure equation.

Nadimi said that the developments in Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolas Maduro as carrying troubling implications for Tehran, while stressing the differences between the two cases, arguing that Iran is larger and more complex, and that Washington does not believe its system can be easily overthrown without a clear internal alternative.

Vatanka, however, sees a significant psychological impact from that precedent, saying it has weakened the assumption that leaders are immune from personal targeting.

The regional network: asset or burden?

Israeli strikes in June that targeted military leaders and sovereign symbols inside Iran reflect a shift in Israel’s security doctrine, from containment to direct confrontation.

O’Hanlon said that this pattern, following events in Venezuela and attacks on figures linked to Iran’s nuclear program, has become more likely under Trump, reflecting a willingness to break taboos that once held.

At the same time, questions are resurfacing over the effectiveness of Iran’s regional network. According to Vatanka, these arms are no longer a real deterrent, but have become, given their rising costs, a strategic burden.

Rubin agreed, adding that they have drained the state treasury, although he does not rule out the system turning to them if the crisis intensifies on the domestic front.

Amid this complex entanglement between internal and external pressures, the Iranian system’s options are narrowing as never before.

Between those who see this weakness as an opportunity to rebalance the region and those who fear widespread chaos, the core question remains: Is Tehran facing a manageable crisis of governance or an existential crisis that could shape Iran and the region for decades to come?