Stocks Sweat on US Election Race, Safe-Haven Bonds Gain

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
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Stocks Sweat on US Election Race, Safe-Haven Bonds Gain

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo
The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. REUTERS/Toby Melville/File Photo

Share markets were whipsawed, while bonds and the dollar gained on Wednesday as results from the US presidential election proved far closer than polls had predicted, potentially leaving the outcome in doubt for days or weeks.

Democratic contender Joe Biden took to the air to declare he was optimistic about winning and called for all votes to be counted, no matter how long it took.

President Donald Trump responded by saying he had won, that "they" were trying to steal the election, and that he would go to the US Supreme Court to fight for victory if necessary.

Investors initially wagered that a possible Democratic sweep by Biden could ease political risk and provide a huge boost to fiscal stimulus.

But the mood quickly changed as Trump snatched Florida and ran much closer in other battleground states than polls predicted.

US equity futures went on a wild ride, rising then falling, climbing again as the voting seemed to favor Trump only to sag once more as the president vowed to make a Supreme Court challenge.

The prospect of a drawn out and bitter fight ahead meant Europe's main bourses in London, Paris, and Frankfurt fell a modest 0.1%-0.8% as they opened as investors factored in the uncertainty ahead.

"It means possibly quite a lot of volatility," said AXA Group's Chief Economist Gilles Moec in London.

"As it is not clear, markets are going to overreact to every tiny piece of news," such as any further talk from Trump or Biden about legal fights.

Dealers said investors could be thinking a status quo result would lessen political uncertainty and remove the risk a Biden administration would roll back corporate tax cuts.

The technology sector saw reason for gains, with NASDAQ futures rising 2.4%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 dropped 1% after Trump signaled his intention to go to the Supreme Court but clawed higher again in early European dealing.

Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, said the move in techs appeared to be a play on the Senate potentially staying Republican.

Brenner said that under a Biden win tech stocks were seen faring worse, partly due to Democrats going after the sector in hearings and because a potential rise in capital gains tax would hit tech stocks harder.

Stéphane Monier, CIO at Lombard Odier said a divided Congress would have "far-reaching implications for markets, mostly because it means that any kind of pandemic recovery package is still tough to approve."

Japan's Nikkei was ahead by 1.7%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.2%.

Chinese blue chips rose 0.7%, with markets uncertain how Sino-US relations would develop from here.

Some investors hedged against the risk of a contested election or at least a drawn-out process as mail-in ballots were counted.

"It's a wait-and-see," said Matt Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual in Sydney.

"I think the odds of a clean (Democrat) sweep are diminishing, almost by the minute. That reduces the possibility, or the likelihood at least of a large stimulus programme being agreed to in the first days of a Biden administration."

That saw 10-year Treasury yields fall all the way back to 0.81%, having been at a five-month top of 0.93%.

The US dollar had a roller-coaster session, reversing early losses to be last up 1% on a basket of currencies at 93.902. The euro fell back hard to $1.1650 and away from a top of $1.1768.

The chance of a Trump victory saw the dollar jump 2% against the Mexican peso on the assumption US trade policies would continue to favor tariffs. Norway's crown, Australia's risk-sensitive dollar, and Britain's pound all tumbled too.

Going the other way, the dollar eased nearly 1% at one point to the Russian rouble, which had been one of the hardest fallers in the run up to the election, though the move seemed to lose traction in European trading.

STILL TO COME

Investors are awaiting the outcome of US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings this week, which are expected to at least give a nod to further stimulus.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates to near zero and boosted its bond-buying program, adding to the tidal wave of cheap money flooding the global financial system.

Gold had been buoyed by the extensive liquidity but ran into profit-taking on Wednesday, losing 0.6% to $1,896 an ounce.

Oil prices held gains made after industry data showed crude inventories in the United States dropped sharply.

Dealers said a returned Republican administration would likely be more positive for the oil industry than the Democrats that favor renewable technology.

US crude futures were up 25 cents at $37.86 a barrel, with Brent crude futures gaining 22 cents to $39.94.



European Oil and Gas Stocks Hit Record High, Surpassing 2007 Level

The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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European Oil and Gas Stocks Hit Record High, Surpassing 2007 Level

The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
The chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery are seen just after sunset, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

The European oil and gas stocks index hit a record high on Monday, surpassing a previous record hit in 2007, helped in recent weeks by a rise in the price of oil, Reuters reported.

At 1450 in London the basket was up 1.5%. Oil and gas names have added 17% year-to-date versus a 6.5% rise for the pan-European STOXX 600 index.

Brent rose as high as $72.44 a barrel on Monday a six month high. It has risen nearly 19% so far in 2026 as investors worry about US military action in Iran.


Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
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Oil Hovers Near Six-month High with Nuclear Talks and US Tariffs in Focus

Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo
Oil platforms and pumpjacks at Lake Maracaibo, in Cabimas, Venezuela, January 26, 2026. REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/File Photo

Oil prices steadied near a six-month high on Monday as the US and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks while increased economic uncertainty was also in focus after the latest US tariff upheaval.

Brent crude futures were up 9 cents at $71.85 a barrel by 1308 GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 15 cents to $66.63, Reuters reported.

Growing concern over potential military conflict between the US and Iran pushed Brent prices up more than 5% last week to their highest since July 2025 at $72.34.

"With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down import tariffs and the subsequent reaction from the government," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.

The US Customs and Border Protection agency said it would halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program.

"This morning’s weakness is a defensive move, and needless to say, with the uncertainty surrounding a US military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and now the US Supreme Court’s decision, oil price direction is not (clear), but volatility is guaranteed," PVM's Varga said.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of Thursday's third round of nuclear talks between the two nations.

While prices on paper had moved higher, softer prompt spreads and weaker physical differentials pointed to pricing being based on geopolitical concerns rather than an actual lack of oil in the market, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note.


Chevron, Iraq Agree to Exclusive Talks Over West Qurna 2 Oilfield 

A view of West Qurna oilfield is seen in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, March 29, 2014. (Reuters)
A view of West Qurna oilfield is seen in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, March 29, 2014. (Reuters)
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Chevron, Iraq Agree to Exclusive Talks Over West Qurna 2 Oilfield 

A view of West Qurna oilfield is seen in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, March 29, 2014. (Reuters)
A view of West Qurna oilfield is seen in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, March 29, 2014. (Reuters)

Chevron has entered into exclusive talks with Iraq over the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, moving closer to acquiring the field from sanctioned Russian oil firm Lukoil.

The talks, which Chevron said will include the exchange of confidential data, could expand the US oil major's footprint in ‌Iraq after ‌the country decided to nationalize the West ‌Qurna 2 ⁠field and unwind ⁠Lukoil's interest in the project.

Iraq nationalized the field last month after the US imposed sanctions on Lukoil to put pressure on Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

EXCLUSIVE NEGOTIATION RIGHTS FOR ONE YEAR

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's office confirmed the signing of the deal between Chevron and the Basra Oil Company.

The agreement between ⁠BOC, Lukoil and Chevron allows for the temporary ‌transfer of the West Qurna ‌2 contract to BOC, which will subsequently assign it to Chevron after ‌terms of the new contract are agreed, al-Sudani's office said in ‌a statement.

Chevron will have exclusive negotiation rights for one year, al-Sudani's office said.

Iraq's government must approve the agreements, and certain steps are contingent upon other approvals including from the US Office of Foreign ‌Assets Control, Chevron said.

Competitive economic terms will be essential to upcoming negotiations, Chevron added.

'AMICABLE SETTLEMENT' WITH ⁠LUKOIL

The Iraqi ⁠cabinet approved last week an "amicable settlement" with Lukoil over the transfer of operations of the oilfield to BOC. Lukoil has until February 28 to sell its assets under the sanctions.

West Qurna, one of the world's largest oilfields, accounts for about 0.5% of global oil supply and nearly 10% of Iraq's output.

A deal for Chevron in West Qurna 2 would mark a further push into Iraq for the US oil major.

It has agreed to develop several fields in the country as part of an international expansion since completing a deal to acquire US oil producer Hess for $53 billion in 2025.