Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
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Arabs Doubt Biden Will Herald Change in the Middle East

Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)
Democratic US presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden smiles during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, November 2, 2020. (Reuters)

Arab leaders congratulated Joe Biden on his election victory, but some people in the Middle East expressed cynicism over US policy even if he pursues diplomacy rather than President Donald Trump’s blunt approach to the region’s myriad problems.

“I was positive that Trump will not make it to a second term. He was too hostile almost towards everybody. He is (more) fit to be a mafia leader than a president of the United States,” said Adel Salman, 40, a high school English teacher in Baghdad.

“Let’s wait and see with the Biden presidency. And I’m saying to all Iraqis don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Is Biden better for Iraq? Let’s wait and see his acts.”

Biden may face some of his most complex foreign policy challenges in the region: from wars in Libya and Yemen to reassuring the United States’ Gulf allies that Washington can protect them from enemy Iran, even though he has said he would return to the international nuclear deal with Tehran.

“Trump was our friend, he loved Saudi Arabia and protected it from enemies. He handcuffed Iran. Biden will let Iran free again and this will hurt us and the whole region,” said Mohamed Al Anaizy, a Saudi Uber driver.

The leaders of Egypt, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan congratulated Biden.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun congratulated Biden and voiced hope for a “return to balance in American-Lebanese relations” during his term.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of An-Nahar newspaper, told Reuters that the timing of the announcement of US sanctions on Friday on Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, a former minister, sent a message that Washington would continue to go after Lebanese politicians over accusations of corruption and aiding Hezbollah.

“Biden is more flexible and rational, but I do not expect fundamental changes, though there may be an easing of pressure with respect to sanctions until Biden’s Middle East team is in place,” he said, according to Reuters.

Ibrahim Matraz, a Yemeni journalist, was also pessimistic about prospects for a shift in US policy after years of conflict that have ravaged his country.

“We shouldn’t forget that Biden was vice president in Obama’s administration when the war began.”

Trump’s allegations of fraud in the election without providing evidence prompted some Arabs to say Washington had no right to preach about democracy in their countries, where leaders often win 99 percent of the vote in rigged elections.

“These elections show the real face of America, a country where elections are a farce with the loser not conceding defeat and claiming he won,” said Adel al Natour, an industrialist in war-torn Syria, whose leaders face stringent US sanctions.



Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

 Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
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Has Iran Abandoned Hezbollah in its Fight against Israel in Lebanon?

 Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)
Lebanese citizens who fled on the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes Monday, settle at a waterfront promenade in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP)

Iran appears to have withdrawn itself from the latest confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel on Monday intensified its operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah, striking targets in Lebanon’s South and eastern Bekaa Valley.

Iran seems noticeably absent as it arranges its political affairs with the United States and the West, said Lebanese political observers.

They pointed to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent remarks that Tehran was making a “tactical retreat” as it backs down from retaliating to Israeli strikes on Iranian interests. It also seems to have abandoned plans for avenging the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Most notably, they highlighted the Iranian foreign minister’s statement on Monday that his country is ready to hold talks on its nuclear program in New York where world leaders are meeting for the United Nations General Assembly.

The political observers appeared divided over whether Iran has really abandoned Hezbollah and was ready to exchange it in return for political gains on the negotiations table, or whether the ideological relationship between Iran and Hezbollah was really unbreakable.

Soaid: Hezbollah is abandoned to its fate

Head of the Saydet el-Jabal Gathering former MP Fares Soaid lamented that the scenario that unfolded in Gaza for nearly year is being replicated in Lebanon.

“The coming days will reveal whether Iran is leading the Resistance Axis against Israel or whether it is fighting Tel Aviv through its allies, while it is really focused on negotiations with the United States,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Day after day, it is becoming evident that members of Iran’s regional proxies are dying while fighting against Israel in order to improve Tehran’s negotiating position with Washington,” he explained.

“The Lebanese people are sensing that Hezbollah, which used to boast of Iran’s support for it, is now waging the battle alone. It is as if it has been left to its fate, while Iran arranges its papers with the West,” he added.

Geopolitical expert Ziad al-Sayegh said the fact that Iran has not joined the Israel’s fiercest battle against Lebanon, does not at all mean that it has abandoned Hezbollah.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that it was naive to believe that the bond between them could be so easily broken since they share deep ideological ties.

People in Lebanon believe that Iran’s failure to react to the latest dangerous developments in Lebanon, starting with the attack on Hezbollah’s communication devices and killing of senior Radwan unit commanders last week, mean it has abandoned the party and left it to its fate.

Surviving at Hezbollah’s expense

Soaid stressed that the Iranian leadership was trying to “survive this war and perhaps strike a deal at the expense of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.”

“Unfortunately, this is not the first time that a Lebanese party ties its fate to a foreign party and bets wrong,” he added.

He recalled how the Lebanese National Movement “tied its fate” to Palestinian Fatah movement leader Yasser Arafat in the 1970s.

“Syrian President Hafez al-Assad decided to eliminate Fatah, kicking off the process by assassinating Lebanon’s Kamal Jumblatt and newly elected President Bashir al-Gemayel,” noted Soaid.

Arafat couldn’t protect Jumblatt and no foreign power was able to save Gemayel, he explained.

“Regional forces are using internal forces, not the other way around,” he noted. “The situation today demonstrates that Hezbollah is following the orders of Tehran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, not the other way around,” he added.

Iran would never have gained so much influence in the region had the West not allowed it to run rampant.

Sayegh said the West “has granted Iran cover for years and the people of the region have played the price of this dirty work. The West won’t get out of this situation unscathed.”

“We have entered the era of eliminating extremism that is formed out of nationalist and religious ideology and Israel and Iran are best examples of this,” he stated.

“The Arab world is demanded to follow the course of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Hezbollah must read the historic and geographic truths through the lense of the Lebanese identity,” he urged.

“It must apply the constitution and respect the state’s sovereignty. Therein lies salvation,” he remarked.