Tunisian Parliament Approves 2021 Budget With Deficit Forecast at 7% GDP

The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
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Tunisian Parliament Approves 2021 Budget With Deficit Forecast at 7% GDP

The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo

Tunisia's Parliament has approved with 110 votes in favor, 21 against, and two abstentions, the 2021 budget law with a deficit forecast at 8 billion dinars, or 2.5 billion euros, over 7% of GDP. State expenditure, according to the official page of Parliament, will total 41 billion dinars while revenues should reach 33 billion dinars.

Calculated on a price of oil at 45 dollars per barrel, the budget law sets a growth target of 4% in 2021, after a historic drop of GDP of 7% forecast in 2020 due to the crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Debate on the draft legislation began at the end of November and was marked by strong political tension with at times clashes recorded between bickering parties. According to the new measures, corporate taxes will go from 15% for those who had to pay 25%. Moreover, deductions on capital gains on the sale of stocks and bonds were cut from 25% to 15%.

Deductions on payments, commissions, intermediation, rentals, and revenues from noncommercial activities as well as payments in exchange for services dropped from 15% to 10%.

These dispositions will concern revenues made from January 1, 2021, and declared in 2022 and over the subsequent years.

Withholding taxes will occur as of January 1, 2021. The State budget for 2021 does not provide for hires in the public sector with the exception of healthcare and the security sector.

The Tunisian Central Bank (BCT) has criticized a deficit that was deemed excessive in 2020 (14% of GDP) and excessive internal financing in the supplementary budget. The four-year financing plan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended in the spring without defining a certain strategy of collaboration for the future and an IMF delegation is about to arrive in Tunis, the Tunisian economy minister said recently.

Tunisia over the past few years has relied heavily on international donors. During the presentation of the draft budget in Parliament on November 28, the head of government Hichem Mechichi said the text presents ''a quantified framework'' of the ''infructuous'' political consequences stemming from several years of economic, social, and political instability. From the revolution in 2011, nine governments have taken office, preventing the adoption of fundamental reforms to relaunch an economy in difficulty.



Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Business activity in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector accelerated to a four-month high in September, driven by strong demand, which led to faster growth in new orders. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, rose to 56.3 points from 54.8 in August, marking the highest reading since May and further distancing itself from the 50.0 level that indicates growth.

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders, alongside challenges in supply. The improvement in business conditions contributed to a significant rise in employment opportunities, although difficulties in finding skilled workers led to a shortage in production capacity.

At the same time, concerns over increasing competition caused a decline in future output expectations. According to the PMI statement, inventories of production inputs remained in good condition, which encouraged some companies to reduce their purchasing efforts.

Growth was strong overall and widespread across all non-oil sectors under study. Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Senior Economist at Riyad Bank, said that the rise in Saudi Arabia's PMI points to a notable acceleration in the growth of the non-oil private sector, primarily driven by increased production and new orders, reflecting the sector’s expansionary activity.

Al-Ghaith added that companies responded to the rise in domestic demand, which plays a crucial role in reducing the Kingdom's reliance on oil revenues. The upward trend also indicates improved business confidence, pointing to a healthy environment for increased investment, job creation, and overall economic stability.

He emphasized that this growth in the non-oil sector is particularly important given the current context of reduced oil production and falling global oil prices. With oil revenues under pressure, the strong performance of the non-oil private sector acts as a buffer, helping mitigate the potential impact on the country's economic conditions.

Al-Ghaith continued, noting that diversifying income sources is essential to maintaining growth amid the volatility of oil markets. He explained that increased production levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi companies but also encourage developments aimed at expanding the private sector's participation in the economy.

This shift, he said, provides a more stable foundation for long-term growth, making the economy less susceptible to oil price fluctuations.