Rai Is Not in Favor of Hariri Stepping Down

Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai and Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri - (NNA)
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai and Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri - (NNA)
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Rai Is Not in Favor of Hariri Stepping Down

Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai and Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri - (NNA)
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai and Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri - (NNA)

Recent reports over attempts by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Hezbollah’s leadership and General Security Head General Abbas Ibrahim to break the stalemate in the issue of the government’s formation do not reflect the reality on ground.

There is no communication between President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-Designate Saad Hariri, despite Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai’s continuous calls for the two to meet and reach an understanding.

Notably, Rai insists that the ball is now in Aoun's court, who has not been responsive so far.

Informed sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun’s adviser and former minister Salim Jreissati has been tasked with meeting Rai after the latter held a phone call with Aoun, asking him to invite Hariri to discuss the government's formation.

The sources said that Rai is still hoping that the president will rise above his personal disputes because removing the obstacles that prevent the government’s formation is in his interest, especially given Hariri’s adequate reaction to the leaked video in which Aoun accuses him of lying.

It is against Aoun’s interest for the last third of his term to continue to be drained, especially that every day that goes by without a government exacerbates the severe social and economic crisis in Lebanon, the sources noted.

Jreissati, for his part, responded positively to Rai’s arguments, affirming that it is not right for Lebanon to stay without a government in light of the changes sweeping through the region and with Biden’s ascension to the White House.

However, the sources said that the political decision is not Jreissati’s to make, in reference to Aoun and FPM leader Deputy Gebran Bassil. The latter and his political group are determined to prevent Hariri from forming a government, despite Rai’s insistence that the prime minister-designate should not step down.

Recently, Rai also met the Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Yasser Al-Alawi who warned that a govt. vacuum will waste all efforts made to save Lebanon and win the trust of the Lebanese people and the international community.

In this context, the sources said that if Aoun refuses to make a move, although he insulted Hariri, it will discourage others from launching initiatives and mediation efforts, regardless of rumors about the willingness of this or that party to intervene.

Berri has headed to his house in the south, not because he is unwilling to intervene to salvage the govt. formation process, but because there is no room to make moves so long as Aoun refuses to budge from the demands which Hariri cannot accept.

Ibrahim and Hezbollah are in a similar position. The former offered to mediate between the two sides when he met with Hariri, who said was awaiting for Aoun’s response. Hezbollah’s leadership, on the other hand, is wary of taking the initiative because they want to avoid putting Aoun and Bassil in an awkward position.



US Sends Beirut ‘Warning’ and ‘Incentive’ Over Hezbollah Arms

US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
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US Sends Beirut ‘Warning’ and ‘Incentive’ Over Hezbollah Arms

US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)
US special envoy Tom Barrack (Reuters)

US special envoy Tom Barrack delivered a dual message of “incentive” and “warning” to the Lebanese capital this week, urging swift action on the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons.

“You have Israel on one side, you have Iran on the other, and now you have Syria manifesting itself so quickly that if Lebanon doesn’t move, it’s going to be Bilad Al Sham again,” he said, using the historical name for the Syria region.

The remarks sparked alarm within Lebanon’s political establishment, with some interpreting the comments as a blunt warning of “existential danger.”

Government sources told Asharq al-Awsat that Barrack, who also serves as Washington’s ambassador to Türkiye and was previously tasked with Syria policy, appears to be approaching the Lebanon and Syria files through a unified lens.

“Barrack believes that Lebanon should follow the same diplomatic path as Syria,” one official said, referring to Damascus' recent re-engagement with regional and international actors. “But he also understands Lebanon’s complex political terrain.”

Barrack’s comments about Lebanon potentially “returning to Bilad Al Sham” provoked criticism across the political spectrum, prompting him to clarify his position in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“My comments yesterday praised Syria’s impressive strides, not a threat to Lebanon,” wrote Barrack.

“I observed the reality that Syria is moving at light speed to seize the historic opportunity presented by President Donald Trump lifting of sanctions: investment from Türkiye and the Gulf, diplomatic outreach to neighboring countries, and a clear vision for the future,” he added.

He said Syria’s leadership is “seeking coexistence and shared prosperity with Lebanon based on sovereign equality,” and stressed that the United States supports a bilateral relationship that promotes “peace, prosperity, and mutual respect” between the two nations.

“I can assure that Syria’s leaders only want co-existence and mutual prosperity with Lebanon, and the United States is committed to supporting that relationship between two equal and sovereign neighbors enjoying peace and prosperity,” said Barrack.

Barrack, in the context of disarming Hezbollah, had stated that a successful approach requires a combination of "carrots and sticks". This means using both positive incentives (carrots) and negative consequences (sticks) to achieve the desired outcome.

Barrack’s recent warning to Lebanon reflects the “stick” Washington is wielding, while his unprecedented acknowledgment of Hezbollah’s dual structure signals the “carrot” being offered.

“This is the first time a US official publicly distinguishes between Hezbollah’s political and military wings,” one source told Asharq al-Awsat.

“It’s a message of inducement aimed directly at Hezbollah, despite the fact that Washington has long treated both branches as inseparable and placed them under the same sanctions regime,” they explained.

In remarks to the press, Barrack reiterated the US designation of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, but added nuance rarely heard from senior American officials.