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Foreign Forces Ignore Libya Exit Deadline Under Fragile Truce

A UN-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by Libya's warring sides on October 23 set a Saturday deadline for all foreign troops and mercenaries to leave but the United Nations estimates some 20,000 remain - AFP
A UN-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by Libya's warring sides on October 23 set a Saturday deadline for all foreign troops and mercenaries to leave but the United Nations estimates some 20,000 remain - AFP
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Foreign Forces Ignore Libya Exit Deadline Under Fragile Truce

A UN-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by Libya's warring sides on October 23 set a Saturday deadline for all foreign troops and mercenaries to leave but the United Nations estimates some 20,000 remain - AFP
A UN-brokered ceasefire agreement signed by Libya's warring sides on October 23 set a Saturday deadline for all foreign troops and mercenaries to leave but the United Nations estimates some 20,000 remain - AFP

Foreign forces ignored a deadline to pull out of Libya as scheduled Saturday under a UN-backed ceasefire deal, highlighting the fragility of peace efforts after a decade of conflict.

Satellite images broadcast by CNN show a trench running tens of kilometres (miles) dug by "Russian mercenaries" near the frontline coastal city of Sirte, as Ankara and Moscow appear intent on defending their interests under any final settlement.

An unidentified US intelligence official, quoted by the American news network, said there was "no intent or movement by either Turkish or Russian forces to abide by the UN-brokered agreement".

"This has the potential to derail an already fragile peace process and ceasefire. It will be a really difficult year ahead," he said, AFP reported.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday urged all "regional and international actors to respect the provisions" of the October 23 ceasefire accord that set out a withdrawal within three months of all foreign troops and mercenaries.

That deadline passed on Saturday, with no movement announced or observed on the ground.

The UN estimates there are still some 20,000 foreign troops and mercenaries in Libya helping the warring factions, the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Tripoli and Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar in the east.

Guterres called on all parties to implement the terms of the ceasefire "without delay," something he noted "includes ensuring the departure of all foreign fighters and mercenaries from Libya, and the full and unconditional respect of the Security Council arms embargo," which has been in place since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted and killed longtime ruler Moamer Kadhafi.

Any withdrawal or end to foreign interference "does not depend on the Libyans but on the outside powers", said Khaled al-Montasser, professor of international relations at Tripoli University.

Turkey on Friday welcomed a deal reached at UN-backed talks for Libya's warring factions to set up an interim executive to rule the North African country until polls in December.

Turkey has backed the GNA with military advisers, materiel and mercenaries, repelling an advance on Tripoli by Haftar's forces, and it also has a military base in Al-Watiya on the border with Tunisia under a 2019 military accord.

Last December, parliament in Ankara extended by 18 months its authorization for Turkey's troop deployment in Libya, in apparent disregard of the ceasefire deal.

"The mercenaries are unlikely to leave Libya so long as the countries which have engaged them have not guaranteed their interests in the new transitional phase," said Montasser, referring to the multiple tracks of UN-sponsored talks currently underway.

"Their presence keeps alive the threat of military confrontation at any moment, while the current calm staying in place seems uncertain," he said.

Most of the foreign forces are concentrated around Sirte, at Al-Jufra air base held by Haftar's forces 500 kilometres (300 miles) south of Tripoli and further west in Al-Watiya.

"The context of the presence of mercenaries and foreign fighters is not the same in the east and the west," said Jalal al-Fitouri, another university professor in the capital.

"The extension of the Turkish presence shows that Ankara doesn't intend to leave," he said, whereas the "terms of the contract" between Haftar and Russian mercenaries remain unknown.

Moscow denies any link to the mercenaries, but UN experts last May confirmed the presence of fighters of the Wagner group, allegedly close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Lebanese Parties Warn Against Hezbollah Keeping Light Weapons

Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
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Lebanese Parties Warn Against Hezbollah Keeping Light Weapons

Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)
Lebanese Shiite mourners gathered on Monday in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashura in a ceremony organized by Hezbollah (AFP)

A recent proposal circulating in Lebanon that would allow Hezbollah to retain its light weapons while surrendering heavy and medium arms has triggered widespread political backlash, with critics warning it poses a grave threat to state sovereignty and public safety.

The suggestion, floated amid long-running debate over the group’s arsenal, argues that other political parties and armed groups also possess light weapons for various reasons. But key political factions have rejected the idea outright, citing Lebanon’s bloody past and the potential for renewed violence.

Opponents of the proposal have pointed to the events of May 7, 2008, when Hezbollah fighters overran parts of Beirut and Mount Lebanon in a show of military force, underscoring the dangers of allowing any non-state group to keep arms.

“Classifying weapons as heavy, medium or light is useless,” said Kataeb Party leader Sami Gemayel in a post on X. “If heavy arms threaten Lebanon’s regional security, light weapons are even more dangerous to the foundations of the state.”

Gemayel reiterated that only the Lebanese army and legitimate security forces should bear arms, calling for the country to be entirely free of weapons held by non-state actors.

MP Ghada Ayoub, of the Lebanese Forces-led "Strong Republic" bloc, echoed that view, insisting the state must assert full sovereignty over all Lebanese territory and outlaw any form of armed presence outside the official security apparatus.

“There is only one armed group operating outside the state, and that is Hezbollah,” Ayoub told Asharq al-Awsat. “It must become a purely political party and clearly, unequivocally declare an end to its military activity.”

Ayoub also criticized recent remarks by Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, who vowed the group’s “resistance” would continue “without asking anyone’s permission.”

“The Lebanese state is responsible for enforcing a monopoly on the use of arms,” she said. “It must stop playing the role of a mediator or hiding behind the fear of war and internal strife. Time is not on Lebanon’s side.”

Ahmad Al-Kheir, a lawmaker with the “National Moderation” bloc, dismissed the proposal as “stillborn,” warning that light weapons have already been used to intimidate citizens and skew political dynamics.

“We saw yesterday how light arms were paraded through Beirut’s streets in a blatant attempt at provocation and coercion,” he said. “This is the real danger - using these weapons as leverage in political life, as we saw in the May 7 events and the occupation of downtown Beirut.”

“No one in Lebanon will accept this,” Al-Kheir added.

Additionally, critics warn that allowing any non-state entity to retain weapons threatens state authority and risks further destabilizing the country.

Al-Kheir urged Hezbollah and any other party in possession of light weapons to hand them over to the state, citing the recent example set by former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt.

“Jumblatt announced that his party had surrendered its weapons weeks ago. This is the model to follow,” he told Asharq al-Awsat.

MP Waddah Al-Sadek, of the Change Coalition, said he had no objection to a phased disarmament process that begins with heavy and medium weapons, followed by light arms. He dismissed fears of civil war, saying only one side is armed.

“Armed conflict requires two sides. The army will not engage in internal fighting,” he said. “This talk of civil war is just fear-mongering unless Hezbollah resorts again to something like the May 7 scenario to avoid disarming.”

Al-Sadek stressed that Lebanon’s response to the US proposal - reportedly outlining phased disarmament - will be critical. “Does anyone really have an alternative to engaging with this proposal?” he asked.

Deputy head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Naji Hayek, said all weapons must be handed over, rejecting the idea that civilians or political groups should be allowed to keep light arms for self-defense.

“This theory no longer holds,” Hayek told Asharq al-Awsat, adding that training camps used to militarize society should be shut down. “Light and medium weapons are not only with Hezbollah - they exist with other parties that have military structures, and these too must be dismantled.”

Political analyst Qassem Qassir, who is close to Hezbollah’s thinking, said there is no internal consensus, nor any agreement with Hezbollah, to give up its heavy and medium arms while retaining light weapons.

“The party insists the issue is still the Israeli occupation and ongoing aggression,” he said. “For Hezbollah, no discussion on disarmament is possible until those threats end.”

Qassir warned that if a political solution to the weapons issue is not reached, “we will inevitably face military risks and internal conflict.”

Jumblatt announced in late June that his party had handed over its remaining weapons, including light and medium arms that were gradually accumulated after the May 7 clashes in 2008 during a period of heightened tension with Hezbollah.

He said the weapons had been centrally stored and fully turned over to the Lebanese state.