So far, the Palestinian electorate in Gaza and the West Bank has reached one million and 900,000, and that number will most probably rise to three million by the time the elections are held in May.
The high number of electors has worried the Palestinian factions, including the two main sides, Fateh and Hamas. This is because it makes controlling what comes in and out of the ballot boxes impossible and because they have no accomplishments to brandish to the audience to garner votes.
In Gaza, there is talk of vengeful voting propelled by the horrid living conditions that have been imposed on the people for many years - justified with slogans of struggle whose advocates’ performance has not been convincing. In the West Bank, many aspects of life have been on the decline, the most prominent of which concerns the state of the judiciary, which has been sharply and strongly decried by judges as well as lawyers, who have now gone on strike. The issue being framed through the angle of the “executive” dominating the “judicial” has compelled broad popular sympathy for the judges and lawyers, which will have a noticeable impact on people’s electoral decisions.
The factions’ most significant source of apprehension is the role they have inherited, a role that stems from an extremely bizarre phenomenon that has emerged within all the parties and political groupings. As the factions’ standing and influence eroded within Palestinian society, their role in Palestinian life expanded, in what is a sick inverse correlation between their fading stature and strengthening hegemony. Because of this seemingly illogical state of affairs, no progress was made on any front.
Neither has the division ended, nor has holding general elections been enshrined, nor are institutions working effectively, nor have those involved in politics made any progress on their front, nor have those who raise resistance slogans achieved objectives.
Indeed, although the factions have maintained their control over politics and their inherited influence remains the same- as though the Palestinian situation had not changed since the factions could rely on the forces, the institutions and popular support that they had possessed when the revolution had been at its zenith and its reach had been broad.
The electorate’s loyalties will not be divided, as had been customary between Islamic political parties and their ineffective militaristic slogans on the one hand, and the nationals and their failed choices, especially the choice of negotiated peace and its promised development, on the other.
However, a missing link in Palestinian politics generates an ambiguity that prevents us from clearly envisioning the upcoming elections’ results. The dichotomy enforced by factions that have imposed themselves on political life and their monopolization of politics has obviously hindered the emergence of organized parties that could inherit the leadership and change things. Everything that should have been done on the popular level, with the involvement of all social components, was done within the factions themselves.
In Fatah, which has been able to keep its internal factions under the same umbrella, different camps and groups are divided between loyalists and opposition- not split on ideological and political issues, but over control and influence... Within Hamas, things are different, as there are no camps or conflicting groups, but rather sharp divergences and disagreements.
In conclusion…While there is a consensus on the necessity of holding the third elections with their three million electors, there is a parallel consensus on deep fear. Despite the decline in the influence held by factions, large and small, the ambiguity surrounding alternatives to these factions makes accurately predicting the results difficult. However, one thing is becoming increasingly clear, it would be a catastrophe if the fear of these elections compels the factions to cancel them.
The Palestinians would enter the next phase, with all of its changes and polarization, without legitimate leadership, the trust of its people, or regional and international support for the Palestinian model… Thus, they must be held despite all other considerations.
