Egypt’s Unemployment Falls to Lowest Levels in 14 Years

A man sells candyfloss on a bridge over the Nile in Cairo. (Reuters)
A man sells candyfloss on a bridge over the Nile in Cairo. (Reuters)
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Egypt’s Unemployment Falls to Lowest Levels in 14 Years

A man sells candyfloss on a bridge over the Nile in Cairo. (Reuters)
A man sells candyfloss on a bridge over the Nile in Cairo. (Reuters)

Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent in FY 19/20, its lowest in 14 years, after it recorded 13.9 percent in the previous fiscal year, announced the Minister of Planning and Economic Development, Hala el-Saeed.

In 2016, Egypt floated its currency as part of an economic reform program that Cairo pursued to overcome the budget deficit and imbalances in the economic sectors.

During her statement to the parliament, the minister pointed out that Egypt’s inflation rate fell to 7.3 percent in the first quarter of FY 20/21, compared to 9.6 percent in Q4 of FY 19/20, while the annual unemployment rate dropped from 13 percent in 2014 to 7.9 percent in 2019.

Said confirmed the decrease in Egypt’s poverty rate to 29.7 percent, for the first time since 1999, compared to 32.5 percent in FY 2017/18, as the poverty rate declined across the country.

The decline was greater in rural areas of Lower Egypt, reflecting a decrease of 4.73 percent, followed by the rural areas of Upper Egypt at 3.79 percent.

“This is one of the fruits of the serious reform steps taken by the Egyptian state,” Said noted, adding that since November 2016, this has strengthened the Egyptian economy and its ability to confront crises.

Public investments increased by 66 percent in general during FY 18/19-20/21 compared to the previous three years, which resulted in the implementation of many development initiatives, according to the minister.

Public investments in major sectors, such as infrastructure, transportation and electricity, amounted to about EGP 500 billion, 32 percent of public investments and 20 percent growth compared to the three preceding years.

The minister added that a growth rate of 5.6 percent was achieved in the first half of 19/20 before the repercussions of the novel coronavirus pandemic were felt.

Despite the crisis, the economy achieved a growth rate of 3.6 percent during FY 19/20, making Egypt one of a limited number of countries that achieved positive growth amid the pandemic. It was projected to achieve a growth rate of 5.8 percent in FY 19/20 and 6 percent in FY 20/21, she revealed.



Oil Prices Set for Second Annual Loss in a Row, Stable Day on Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Prices Set for Second Annual Loss in a Row, Stable Day on Day

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were on track to end 2024 with a second consecutive year of losses on Tuesday, but were steady on the day as data showing an expansion in Chinese manufacturing was balanced by Nigeria targeting higher output next year.

Brent crude futures fell by 7 cents, or 0.09%, to $73.92 a barrel as of 1306 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude lost 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $70.95 a barrel.

At those levels, Brent was down around 4% from its final 2023 close price of $77.04, while WTI was down around 1% from where it settled on Dec. 29 last year at $71.65.

In September, Brent futures closed below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021, while their highest closing price of 2024 at $91.17 was also the lowest since 2021, as the impacts of a post-pandemic rebound in demand and price shocks from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine began to fade.

According to Reuters, oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel in 2025 as weak demand from China and rising global supplies are expected to cast a shadow on OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Tuesday.

A weaker demand outlook in China in particular forced both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut their oil demand growth expectations for 2024 and 2025.

With non-OPEC supply also set to rise, the IEA sees the oil market going into 2025 in a state of surplus, even after OPEC and its allies delayed their plan to start raising output until April 2025 against a backdrop of falling prices.

Investors will also be watching the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook for 2025 after central bank policymakers earlier this month projected a slower path due to stubbornly high inflation.

Lower interest rates generally incentivise borrowing and fuel growth, which in turn is expected to boost oil demand.

Markets are also gearing up for US President-elect Donald Trump's policies around looser regulation, tax cuts, tariff hikes and tighter immigration, as well as potential geopolitical shifts from Trump's calls for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the possible re-imposition of the so-called "maximum pressure" policy towards Iran.

Prices were supported on Tuesday by data showing China's manufacturing activity expanded for a third straight month in December but at a slower pace, suggesting a blitz of fresh stimulus is helping to support the world's second-largest economy.

However, that was balanced out by potential for higher supply next year, as Nigeria said it is targeting national production of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, up from its current level of around 1.8 million bpd.