US-Russian Deadlock Revives ‘Step-By-Step’ Approach in Syria

US and Russian military vehicles in the countryside of Qamishli, northeastern Syria, in May 2020 (AFP)
US and Russian military vehicles in the countryside of Qamishli, northeastern Syria, in May 2020 (AFP)
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US-Russian Deadlock Revives ‘Step-By-Step’ Approach in Syria

US and Russian military vehicles in the countryside of Qamishli, northeastern Syria, in May 2020 (AFP)
US and Russian military vehicles in the countryside of Qamishli, northeastern Syria, in May 2020 (AFP)

The Brussels V Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region, which took place on March 29-30, has successfully re-energized international attention given to ending the conflict in the war-torn country.

International interest in the battle-weary country had dwindled after US President Joe Biden took the helm in Washington and launched a policy review alongside different US institutions. But Syria is now back to figuring high on the agendas of world states.

Tensions between the US and Moscow, however, continue to loom over Syria, where American and Russian forces come face to face.

Military understandings have managed to prevent a US-Russian clash so far, but growing political dispute between the two major powers remains unresolved and has resulted in a “step-by-step” approach for navigating a settlement in Syria.

Moscow, as one of the key backers of the Syrian regime and its head, Bashar al-Assad, has thrown its full weight behind Damascus’ agenda for constitutional reform and elections.

On April 19, Syria’s parliament is expected to kickstart preparations for upcoming presidential elections. Back in March 2012, the country had held a referendum on a new constitution that allows having multiparty political system and multiple presidential candidates in Syria.

According to the new laws, the presidential poll must be held between 60 and 90 days before Assad's term ends on July 17, and only candidates who lived in Syria for 10 consecutive years prior to nomination can run for president.

More so, article 85 of the constitution says no candidacy for the office of president shall be accepted unless the applicant has the support of at least 35 members of parliament. Each lawmaker has the right to back only one presidential candidate.

Despite the country approving multicandidate presidential elections, no signs of who is planning to run for Syria’s highest office in 2021 have emerged yet.

Back in 2014, Syria held its first presidential race under the 2012 reforms, but Assad was re-elected.

Moscow has fully supported separating Syria having its presidential elections from the ongoing constitutional reform process stipulated by UN resolution 2254, which affirms that the Syrians are the only ones who decide the future of their country away from any foreign interference.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in statements on Wednesday, insisted that the 2021 presidential elections cannot be linked to the ongoing process mounted by the UN-sponsored Syrian Constitutional Committee.

Lavrov also reiterated the need for a deadline on the Committee’s work in Geneva and proposed that another round of presidential elections can be held after the Committee succeeding in its mission.

Damascus will likely agree to Lavrov’s proposal, given that it provides a constitutional cover for another term for Assad in office.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, since his appointment as the Biden administration’s top diplomat, has tackled the Syria crisis from two main angles: the humanitarian disaster and the fight against ISIS.

For the fifth donors conference for Syria in Brussels, the US was represented by US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield, not Blinken.

At UN Security Council meetings, Blinken confronted Russia by calling for authorizing more border crossings for the delivery of humanitarian aid into Syria.

“As we’ve heard, an estimated 13.4 million people – two in every three Syrians – are in need of humanitarian assistance. Sixty percent of Syrians are at serious risk of going hungry,” Blinken told the UNSC.

“At present, the most efficient and effective way to get the most aid to the most people in the northwest and northeast is through border crossings.”

“Yet the UNSC has recently allowed the authorization for two border crossings to lapse: Bab al-Salaam in the northwest, which used to deliver aid to approximately 4 million Syrians; and al-Yaroubia in the northeast, which brought aid to another 1.3 million Syrians,” he argued.

Due to objections and obstruction from Russia on behalf of Assad’s regime at the Security Council, the UN has lost three of the four border crossings it used to bring humanitarian assistance into Syria from neighboring countries.

Russia has already signaled that it is not interested in renewing the last remaining crossing point from Turkey into Syria, known as Bab al-Hawa, for the transfer of humanitarian supplies.

Instead, Moscow has been strongly supporting the Assad regime’s demand for all aid to be distributed from Damascus across conflict lines.

This is taking place despite the UN and its aid partners saying that deliveries that go across internal conflict lines have been insufficient and open the door to regime interference on where the aid goes.
US-Russian disagreement at the UNSC, however, did not stop 79 delegations from 52 countries from pledging around $4.4 billion at the 2021 Brussels donor conference.

Nevertheless, partakers at the conference were not optimistic towards the Syrian political process arriving at a settlement soon.

“The conflict is certainly far from over,” EU Foreign Minister Josep Borrell told donors.



What to Know about the Ceasefire Deal between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah

People gather as cars drive past rubble from damaged buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after US President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France, in Lebanon, November 27, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People gather as cars drive past rubble from damaged buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after US President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France, in Lebanon, November 27, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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What to Know about the Ceasefire Deal between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah

People gather as cars drive past rubble from damaged buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after US President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France, in Lebanon, November 27, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
People gather as cars drive past rubble from damaged buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after US President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France, in Lebanon, November 27, 2024. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

A ceasefire deal that went into effect on Wednesday could end more than a year of cross-border fighting between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group, raising hopes and renewing difficult questions in a region gripped by conflict.
The US- and France-brokered deal, approved by Israel late Tuesday, calls for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the border. It offers both sides an off-ramp from hostilities that have driven more than 1.2 million Lebanese and 50,000 Israelis from their homes.
An intense bombing campaign by Israel has left more than 3,700 people dead, many of them civilians, Lebanese officials say. Over 130 people have been killed on the Israeli side.
But while it could significantly calm the tensions that have inflamed the region, the deal does little directly to resolve the much deadlier war that has raged in Gaza since the Hamas attack on southern Israel in October 2023 that killed 1,200 people.
Hezbollah, which began firing scores of rockets into Israel the following day in support of Hamas, previously said it would keep fighting until there was a stop to the fighting in Gaza. With the new cease-fire, it has backed away from that pledge, in effect leaving Hamas isolated and fighting a war alone.
Here’s what to know about the tentative ceasefire agreement and its potential implications:
The terms of the deal
The agreement reportedly calls for a 60-day halt in fighting that would see Israeli troops retreat to their side of the border while requiring Hezbollah to end its armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon. President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the deal is set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday (9 p.m. EST Tuesday).
Under the deal, thousands of Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers are to deploy to the region south of the Litani River. An international panel led by the US would monitor compliance by all sides. Biden said the deal “was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
Israel has demanded the right to act should Hezbollah violate its obligations, but Lebanese officials rejected writing that into the proposal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the military would strike Hezbollah if the UN peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, does not enforce the deal.
Lingering uncertainty
Hezbollah indicated it would give the ceasefire pact a chance, but one of the group's leaders said the group's support for the deal hinged on clarity that Israel would not renew its attacks.
“After reviewing the agreement signed by the enemy government, we will see if there is a match between what we stated and what was agreed upon by the Lebanese officials,” Mahmoud Qamati, deputy chair of Hezbollah’s political council, told the Qatari satellite news network Al Jazeera.
“We want an end to the aggression, of course, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the state” of Lebanon, he said.
The European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said Tuesday that Israel’s security concerns had been addressed in the deal.
Where the fighting has left both sides After months of cross-border bombings, Israel can claim major victories, including the killing of Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, most of his senior commanders and the destruction of extensive militant infrastructure.
A complex attack in September involving the explosion of hundreds of walkie-talkies and pagers used by Hezbollah was widely attributed to Israel, signaling a remarkable penetration of the militant group.
The damage inflicted on Hezbollah has hit not only in its ranks, but the reputation it built by fighting Israel to a stalemate in the 2006 war. Still, its fighters managed to put up heavy resistance on the ground, slowing Israel’s advance while continuing to fire scores of rockets, missiles and drones across the border each day.
The ceasefire offers relief to both sides, giving Israel’s overstretched army a break and allowing Hezbollah leaders to tout the group’s effectiveness in holding their ground despite Israel’s massive advantage in weaponry. But the group is likely to face a reckoning, with many Lebanese accusing it of tying their country’s fate to Gaza’s at the service of key ally Iran, inflicting great damage on a Lebanese economy that was already in grave condition.
No answers for Gaza Until now, Hezbollah has insisted that it would only halt its attacks on Israel when it agreed to stop fighting in Gaza. Some in the region are likely to view a deal between the Lebanon-based group and Israel as a capitulation.
In Gaza, where officials say the war has killed more than 44,000 Palestinians, Israel’s attacks have inflicted a heavy toll on Hamas, including the killing of the group’s top leaders. But Hamas fighters continue to hold scores of Israeli hostages, giving the militant group a bargaining chip if indirect ceasefire negotiations resume.
Hamas is likely to continue to demand a lasting truce and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in any such deal, while Netanyahu on Tuesday reiterated his pledge to continue the war until Hamas is destroyed and all hostages are freed.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whose forces were ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007 and who hopes to one day rule over the territory again as part of an independent Palestinian state, offered a pointed reminder Tuesday of the intractability of the war, demanding urgent international intervention.
“The only way to halt the dangerous escalation we are witnessing in the region, and maintain regional and international stability, security and peace, is to resolve the question of Palestine,” he said in a speech to the UN read by his ambassador.