AU-Mediated GERD Talks to Kick Off in Kinshasa

 A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
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AU-Mediated GERD Talks to Kick Off in Kinshasa

 A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

Foreign ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will meet in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on Saturday to discuss the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which broke ground in 2011.

The three-day meeting in Kinshasa will be hosted by Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi, who is also the chairman of the African Union. Rounds of negotiations among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia have reached a deadlock several times.

The meeting comes days after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warned that his country's share of the Nile River is "untouchable."

In his remarks, Sisi warned that “no one can prejudice Egypt’s right to River Nile waters.” He also warned that any prejudice to this is a “red line”, and will have an impact on the stability of the entire region.

The Sudanese government has also previously warned Ethiopia against unilaterally filling the dam, claiming such a move would threaten Sudan's national security.

In this regard, Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Mariam Sadiq al-Mahdi and Water Resources Minister Yasser Abbas will head Saturday to the Congolese capital to participate in the meetings, Sudan's Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

"The Sudanese delegation participates in this round to identify methodology and paths of the talks and reach agreement on them to ensure constructive negotiations that overcome the stalemate that characterized the talks during the past months," it noted.

According to the statement, the talks would discuss Sudan's proposal of a mediation quartet of the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and the African Union to help the three parties reach a binding legal agreement on filling and operating of the dam.

Addis Ababa finished in July 2020 the first phase of filling the reservoir, in preparation for its operation, and announced going ahead with the second filling in July.

Ethiopia began constructing the 1.8-kilometer-long GERD in 2011 to generate power.

However, Cairo and Khartoum fear the potential negative impact of the dam on the flow of their annual share of the Nile’s 55.5 billion cubic meters of water. Both countries continue to stress the need to reach a binding and comprehensive agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries.



Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal Compared to Swiss Cheese, Full of Gaps

Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
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Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal Compared to Swiss Cheese, Full of Gaps

Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)

The ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal reached between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday evening is facing a crisis that could prevent it from going forward before it gets Israeli approval or is put into effect.
The agreement is full of gaps, much like Swiss cheese. Despite outlining three phases aimed at bringing the war to a close, it is accompanied by Israeli military actions that continue to claim dozens of lives in Gaza.
Asharq Al-Awsat reviewed the deal’s terms and the different interpretations from both sides.
The first issue comes from the opening of the agreement’s appendix: Practical procedures and mechanisms to implement the agreement for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and the return to a sustainable calm which would achieve a permanent ceasefire between the two sides.
What does “sustainable calm” mean? In Israel, officials say it means Israel has the right to resume fighting after the first phase. Palestinians, however, claim US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration has promised the war won’t restart. Both sides interpret the term differently.
The goal of the agreement is clear: release all Israeli prisoners—alive or dead—captured by Palestinians. In return, Israel will release a “negotiated number” of Palestinian prisoners.
The exchange is set to begin on “Day One,” the day the ceasefire takes effect, but it's still unclear when that will be.
In the first phase (42 days), the agreement calls for “a temporary halt to military operations by both sides and the withdrawal of the Israeli army eastward” from “high-population areas along the Gaza border, including the Gaza Valley.”
Hamas claims the maps provided for this were incomplete.
Even though the agreement mentions “the return of displaced people to their homes and withdrawal from Gaza Valley,” people will have to walk several kilometers and vehicles will be inspected, which could lead to disagreements and clashes.
As for humanitarian aid, the agreement allows for its entry starting on “Day One” (600 trucks daily, including 50 fuel trucks, with 300 heading to northern Gaza).
This includes fuel for the power plant and equipment for debris removal, rehabilitation, and hospital operations.
But the agreement doesn’t clarify how the aid will be distributed or who will control it. Will Hamas continue to oversee it? Will Israel agree? If Hamas takes charge, what happens then? This could lead to further complications.
The criteria for the first phase of the prisoner exchange are clear, but the agreement states that “the prisoner exchange terms for the first phase will not apply to the second phase.”
Hamas wants more Palestinian prisoners released, but Israel rejects this. If disagreements have arisen over clear criteria in the first phase, what will happen when the criteria are more vague?
The agreement sets a deadline of “Day 16” for indirect talks to finalize the conditions for the second phase, particularly regarding the prisoner exchange.
One clause is seen by Israel as not requiring it to carry out the second phase, while Hamas views it as a guarantee to prevent the war from restarting. The clause states: “Qatar, the US, and Egypt will make every effort to ensure continued indirect negotiations until both sides agree on the terms for the second phase.”
However, the phrase “make every effort” does not create a binding legal obligation.
The agreement is full of gaps that could become major problems for both sides. While this doesn’t mean the deal should be dismissed, it shows that many parts of the agreement are fragile and depend on mutual trust and good intentions—both of which are lacking in this region.