عربي English Türkçe اردو فارسى
Logo
Latest News
Features

Washington’s Conditions for Normalizing Ties with Damascus Vs. Criteria for Lifting Sanctions on Syria

A Syrian boy looks at an American military patrol east of the Euphrates region in Syria, (AFP)
A Syrian boy looks at an American military patrol east of the Euphrates region in Syria, (AFP)
TT
20
TT

Washington’s Conditions for Normalizing Ties with Damascus Vs. Criteria for Lifting Sanctions on Syria

A Syrian boy looks at an American military patrol east of the Euphrates region in Syria, (AFP)
A Syrian boy looks at an American military patrol east of the Euphrates region in Syria, (AFP)

Washington has set seven conditions for lifting sanctions imposed under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019. But to normalize ties with Damascus, the US is demanding authorities in the Levantine country to first meet six conditions, four of which have been set before civil war breaking out in 2011.

With nearly three months having passed since the Biden administration took over in Washington, it is becoming more and more evident that Syria is not an immediate priority for the new US leadership.

While the previous two US administrations appointed a special envoy to Syria, US President Joe Biden has not yet done so, although he has assigned special envoys to Lebanon and Iran.

Brett McGurk, the former US envoy for the International Coalition against ISIS, is now the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa and is responsible for maintaining light supervision of US policy on Syria.

Nevertheless, the US continues to impose sanctions to pressure the Syrian regime headed by President Bashar al-Assad to comply with implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a ceasefire and a political settlement in Syria.

But the Syrian regime can get rid of the bans if it gets the incumbent US president to agree it had met Caesar Act’s seven conditions for suspending sanctions.

The seven criteria include the following:

i. The Syrian and Russian governments cease using Syrian airspace to target civilian populations

ii. Areas of Syria not under government control are no longer cut off from international aid and have regular access to humanitarian assistance, freedom of travel and medical care

iii. The Syrian government release all political prisoners and allow access to detention facilities

iv. The Syrian government and its allies cease the deliberate targeting of medical facilities, schools, residential areas and other civilian targets

v. The Syrian government take steps to fulfill its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and make “tangible progress” toward becoming a signatory to the Convention Prohibiting Biological and Toxin Weapons

vi. The Syrian government permit the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of Syrians displaced by the conflict

vii. The Syrian government takes “verifiable steps” to establish meaningful accountability for perpetrators of war crimes in Syria and justice for victims of war crimes committed by the Assad government.

But for the Syrian regime to get Washington to normalize ties with Damascus it must fulfill different conditions that have been put in place by the former Trump administration.

According to the peace plan drafted by the ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Assad government would have to stop supporting terrorism, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia.

It would also need to cease threatening neighboring countries, give up weapons of mass destruction, back the voluntary return of Syrian refugees and deliver war criminals to justice.

Some are arguing that US sanctions could be adversely affecting Syrians who are already suffering the scourge of an ongoing civil war and the fallout of a crippling economic crisis. But since coming to power, the Biden administration has launched a general revision of US sanctions everywhere based on ensuring they do not restrict the flow of humanitarian aid and efforts to fight the coronavirus pandemic.

Most Viewed

 
Features

Iran Risks Severe Economic Downturn, Unrest as Renewed Un Sanctions Bite 

Iranian women shop in a store at the Tehran Bazaar after the approval of the bill to remove four zeros from the national currency, in Tehran, Iran, October 5, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Iranian women shop in a store at the Tehran Bazaar after the approval of the bill to remove four zeros from the national currency, in Tehran, Iran, October 5, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
TT
20
TT

Iran Risks Severe Economic Downturn, Unrest as Renewed Un Sanctions Bite 

Iranian women shop in a store at the Tehran Bazaar after the approval of the bill to remove four zeros from the national currency, in Tehran, Iran, October 5, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Iranian women shop in a store at the Tehran Bazaar after the approval of the bill to remove four zeros from the national currency, in Tehran, Iran, October 5, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iran's economy is at risk of simultaneous hyperinflation and severe recession, officials and analysts say, as clerical rulers scramble to preserve stability with limited room to maneuver after a snapback of UN sanctions. They followed a breakdown in talks to curb Iran's disputed nuclear activity and its ballistic missile program.

Diplomacy to resolve the deadlock remains possible, both sides say, though Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has rebuffed US President Donald Trump's offer to forge a new deal.

Three senior Iranian officials, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Tehran believes the US, its Western allies and Israel are intensifying sanctions to fuel unrest in Iran and jeopardize the very existence of the republic.

Since the reimposition of UN sanctions on September 28, multiple high-level meetings have been held in Tehran on how to avert economic collapse, circumvent sanctions and manage simmering public anger, the officials told Reuters.

Deepening economic disparities between ordinary Iranians and a privileged clerical and security elite, economic mismanagement, galloping inflation and state corruption - reported even by state media - have fanned discontent.

"The establishment knows protests are inevitable, it is only a matter of time ... The problem is growing, while our options are shrinking," said one of the officials. Iran's leadership is leaning heavily on its "resistance economy" - a strategy of self-sufficiency and closer trade with China, Russia and some regional states. Moscow and Beijing back Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy and condemned US and Israeli strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June.

But analysts warn that such workarounds may not be enough to shield the sprawling country of 92 million people from the renewed economic blow.

"The impact of the UN sanctions will be severe and multifaceted, deepening the country’s longstanding structural and financial vulnerabilities,” said Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University near Washington.

"The government is struggling to maintain economic stability as sanctions disrupt banking networks, restrict trade and constrain oil exports - the country’s main revenue source, resulting in escalating social and economic pressure."

OIL LIFELINE UNDER THREAT AS UN SANCTIONS RETURN

Iran has avoided wholesale economic meltdown since 2018 when, during his first term, Trump withdrew the US from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers and reimposed US sanctions.

But the revival of wider UN sanctions is inflicting shocks that will stymie economic growth, accelerate inflation and the collapse of the rial currency, pushing the economy toward a recessionary spiral, one of the Iranian officials said.

Iran’s economy contracted sharply after 2018 due to renewed US sanctions. It rebounded in 2020 to grow modestly at times, largely due to oil trade with China. But the World Bank this month forecast a shrinkage of 1.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 - sharply down from the 0.7% growth it had projected in April for next year.

While Tehran still relies heavily on oil exports to China - its biggest customer and one of the few countries still doing business with it despite Trump's "maximum pressure" policy, doubts reign over the sustainability of that trade.

Although sold at a discount, crude remains a vital source of income for Tehran, with oil and petrochemicals making up about a quarter of GDP in 2024. Despite public assurances that oil sales to China will continue, one Iranian official said the reimposed global sanctions could stifle that flow.

Shokri said that if China seeks to ease tensions with the Trump administration, it may tighten its stance on Iranian oil - demanding steeper discounts or cutting imports altogether.

For Tehran, the costs could be devastating. Every dollar shaved off the price of oil translates into roughly half a billion dollars in lost annual revenue, he said. The rial has shriveled to 1,115,000 per dollar from 920,000 in August, stoking inflation to at least 40% and gutting purchasing power. Persistent currency depreciation and trade sanctions are driving up prices and sapping investor confidence.

HARDSHIP SPREADS, PUBLIC ANGER SIMMERS

Few Iranians can escape the attendant hardships. A sense of desperation is rippling through society, affecting urban professionals, bazaar traders and rural farmers alike.

"How much more pressure are we supposed to endure? Until when? I’m a government employee, and I earn just 34 million tomans (around $300) a month," said Alireza, 43, speaking by phone from the capital Tehran. Like others, he asked not to be further identified for fear of retribution from authorities.

"My wife is jobless. The import-export company she worked for shut down last month. With just my salary and two kids, we’re struggling to even pay rent and school expenses. What are we supposed to do?”

Iran’s official inflation rate is around 40% though some estimates exceed 50%. Official data in September showed prices for 10 staple goods, including meat, rice and chicken, rose 51% in one year. Housing and utility costs have also surged. Beef now costs $12 a kilo - too expensive for many families.

The clerical elite increasingly worry that mounting public distress could reignite mass protests that have erupted periodically since 2017 among lower- and middle-income Iranians, the second Iranian official said.

Many Iranians like Sima, 32, a factory worker in the central city of Shiraz worn down by years of economic strain, worry that the expanded sanctions will push them past the breaking point.

"Now they say we’re facing new sanctions again, but we’re already struggling to provide for our three children. Prices go up every single day and we can’t even afford to buy meat for them once a month,” said Sima.

Many business owners fear deeper international isolation and further Israeli airstrikes if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear standoff.

"With the constant fear of a possible attack and not knowing whether I’ll even be able to export this month or next, how am I supposed to keep my business running?” said Mehdi, who ships fruit to neighboring countries.

Features

Lebanon at Political, Security Crossroads as Risks of Escalation with Israel Rise 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets US envoy Tom Barrack at the Baabda presidential palace, July 2025. (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets US envoy Tom Barrack at the Baabda presidential palace, July 2025. (AP)
TT
20
TT

Lebanon at Political, Security Crossroads as Risks of Escalation with Israel Rise 

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets US envoy Tom Barrack at the Baabda presidential palace, July 2025. (AP)
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun meets US envoy Tom Barrack at the Baabda presidential palace, July 2025. (AP)

Lebanon stands at a political and security crossroads amid mounting external pressure, a deadlocked political landscape, and escalating military tensions marked by Israel’s continuing daily violations of the November ceasefire.

The stalemate was laid bare by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday that the proposed negotiation track between Lebanon and Israel - known as the “US paper” - had collapsed.

His remarks came just hours after US envoy Tom Barrack warned that if Beirut continues to hesitate over disarmament, Israel may act unilaterally, and the consequences will be "grave", adding that it is time for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah as it had said it would.

“Should Beirut continue to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally and the consequences would be grave,” cautioned Barrack in an opinion piece posted on his account on the X platform.

Berri said Barrack had informed Beirut that Israel rejected a US proposal to launch a negotiation process starting with a two-month halt to Israeli operations and culminating in an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, alongside border demarcation and security arrangements.

Barrack also revealed that an offer the US made to Lebanon earlier this year, part of a plan called “One More Try,” included a framework for phased disarmament, verified compliance, and economic incentives under American and French supervision.

However, Lebanon “refused to adopt it due to Hezbollah's representation and influence in the Lebanese cabinet,” he claimed.

Fears of escalation

What lies ahead remains uncertain with many watching how the political deadlock might affect Lebanon’s fragile security. Beirut’s insistence on upholding the ceasefire agreement, which Berri described as “the only current path” despite obstacles related to Hezbollah’s disarmament, does not necessarily mean Israel will abide by it.

Ministerial sources close to the presidency said the prospect of military escalation “cannot be ruled out,” adding: “There is no doubt this is a critical stage, and escalation could happen at any moment, especially since Israeli violations have not ceased.”

The sources noted that “Israeli drones have been flying constantly over Baabda - the location of the presidential palace - in recent days.”

While the sources rejected talk of a complete breakdown in negotiations, they stressed that “Israel is not committed to the ceasefire agreement” and that “Washington is not applying the necessary pressure to enforce it.”

“How can the Lebanese Army complete its deployment along the southern border when the Israeli occupation persists?” they asked.

The sources reiterated that the president opened the door to negotiations based on the maritime border demarcation experience, which both Israel and Hezbollah respected, in addition to Lebanon’s adherence to the ceasefire.

“The problem,” they said, “is that the other side is neither responsive nor committed to what has been agreed upon, while the US remains completely silent.”

Successive setbacks

In this tense atmosphere, retired Major General and political science scholar Abdul Rahman Chehaitli said the “November agreement has collapsed, leaving Lebanon in a grim reality.”

Political science and international relations professor Imad Salamey likewise said Lebanon “is going through a clear escalation phase, especially as political forces shy away from pursuing a negotiated settlement with Israel amid the absence of serious guarantees from Washington or Tel Aviv.”

He recalled Barrack’s repeated warnings of a potential new military confrontation “under the pretext of enforcing Hezbollah’s disarmament,” adding that “in reality, the situation points to a series of successive setbacks in the security understandings.”

A Gaza-style approach

A year after the November deal, Salamey said “confidence in the diplomatic process is eroding by the day,” noting that there are “no signs that any disarmament effort will be met with an Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese land or a permanent halt to violations.”

This, he argued, “deepens Lebanese suspicions that US pressure aims to impose a security arrangement serving Israel’s interests.”

According to Salamey, any future Lebanese deal “would need an approach similar to the one adopted in Gaza - under regional sponsorship and with Iran’s cooperation as a guarantor - to consolidate the ceasefire and lay the groundwork for a broader settlement.”

Without such balanced regional and international guarantees, he warned, “the risk of escalation will remain, if not grow, as the circle of military and political confrontation widens in the South.”

Pressure for direct talks

Chehaitli said Israel’s ongoing pressure, backed by Washington, aims to force Lebanon into direct negotiations. “All the rounds of shuttle diplomacy by Barrack were merely time-wasting exercises, while Israel was busy in Gaza,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Now it seems Tel Aviv is shifting its focus toward Lebanon, using military pressure to push for direct talks.”

“In the coming phase, we may witness significant escalation targeting Hezbollah’s areas of influence to make any ceasefire conditional on a political deal,” he added. “Israel believes it has won the war and now wants to impose its terms.”

Features

Israel Still Fires on Lebanon Almost a Year After a Ceasefire. Some Predict the Same for Gaza

Smoke billows over the village of Aaichiyeh after Israeli strikes, as seen from Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon, October 20, 2025. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over the village of Aaichiyeh after Israeli strikes, as seen from Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon, October 20, 2025. (Reuters)
TT
20
TT

Israel Still Fires on Lebanon Almost a Year After a Ceasefire. Some Predict the Same for Gaza

Smoke billows over the village of Aaichiyeh after Israeli strikes, as seen from Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon, October 20, 2025. (Reuters)
Smoke billows over the village of Aaichiyeh after Israeli strikes, as seen from Marjeyoun in southern Lebanon, October 20, 2025. (Reuters)

As a tenuous ceasefire took hold in Gaza this month, Israel launched more airstrikes on southern Lebanon — 11 months into a ceasefire there.

The bombardment of a construction equipment business killed a Syrian passerby, wounded seven people including two women, and destroyed millions of dollars worth of bulldozers and excavators.

The Oct. 11 strikes would be an anomaly in most countries not at war. But near-daily Israeli attacks have become the new normal in Lebanon, nearly a year after a US-brokered truce halted the latest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Some see a likely blueprint for the Gaza ceasefire, with ongoing but lower-intensity conflicts. On Sunday, Israel struck Gaza after it said Hamas fired at its troops, in the first major test of the US-brokered truce.

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, described the Lebanon scenario as a "lessfire" rather than a ceasefire.

Lebanon "could well serve as the model for Gaza, essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict," she said.

A ceasefire with no clear enforcement

The latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict began the day after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza. The Iran-backed Hezbollah, largely based in southern Lebanon, began firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas and the Palestinians.

Israel responded with airstrikes and shelling. The low-level conflict escalated into full-scale war in September 2024.

The ceasefire on Nov. 27, 2024, required Lebanon to stop armed groups from attacking Israel and Israel to halt "offensive" military actions in Lebanon. It said Israel and Lebanon can act in "self-defense," without elaborating.

Both sides can report alleged violations to a monitoring committee of the US, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL, but the deal is vague on enforcement.

In practice, Israel has largely taken enforcement into its own hands, asserting that its strikes in Lebanon target Hezbollah members, facilities and weapons.

Israel says it aims to stop the badly weakened group from rebuilding. Lebanese officials say the attacks obstruct its efforts to get Hezbollah to disarm by giving the group a pretext to hold onto its weapons.

Lebanon also says Israel's strikes, including the Oct. 11 one, often harm civilians and destroy infrastructure unrelated to Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s health ministry has reported more than 270 people killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions since the ceasefire. As of Oct. 9, the UN human rights office had verified that 107 of those killed were civilians or noncombatants, said spokesperson Thameen Al-Kheetan.

No Israelis have been killed by fire from Lebanon since the ceasefire.

From Nov. 27, 2024, to mid-October, UNIFIL detected around 950 projectiles fired from Israel into Lebanon and 100 Israeli airstrikes, spokesperson Kandice Ardiel said. During the same period, it reported 21 projectiles fired from Lebanon toward Israel. Hezbollah has claimed one attack since the ceasefire.

Conflicting narratives

After the Oct. 11 strikes in Msayleh, Israel's army said it hit "engineering equipment intended for the reconstruction of terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon."

Lebanese authorities, Hezbollah and the equipment’s owner disputed that.

"Everyone in Lebanon, from all different sects, comes to buy from us," owner Ahmad Tabaja told journalists. "What have we done wrong?"

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the strikes "blatant aggression against civilian facilities." Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri accused Israel of seeking to prevent communities' reconstruction. Lebanon complained to the UN Security Council.

A few days later, Israel struck a cement factory and a quarry, claiming Hezbollah planned to use it to rebuild its infrastructure.

Last month, an Israeli strike hit a motorcycle and a car carrying a family in Bint Jbeil. It killed Shadi Charara, a car salesman, three of his children — including 18-month-old twins — and the motorcyclist, and badly wounded Charara’s wife and oldest daughter. It was among the highest death tolls since the ceasefire, sparking particular outrage because of the children.

"My brother was a civilian and his children and wife are civilians, and they have nothing to do with politics," said sister Amina Charara.

Israel’s military said it was targeting a Hezbollah militant, whom it did not name, but acknowledged that civilians were killed.

Even when the target is a known Hezbollah member, the military necessity can be disputed.

Earlier this month, an Israeli drone strike killed a Hezbollah member who was blinded last year in Israel’s exploding pagers attack, along with his wife. Israel's army said Hassan Atwi was a key official in Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense Unit. Hezbollah officials said he had played no military role since losing his eyesight.

The end of ‘mutual deterrence’

Hezbollah was formed in 1982, with Iranian backing, to fight Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time. Israeli forces withdrew in 2000, and Hezbollah grew into one of the region's most powerful non-state armed groups.

In 2006, Hezbollah and Israel fought a month-long war that ended in a draw. For the next 17 years, "there was a tense calm ... that was largely due to mutual deterrence," said Nicholas Blanford, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East program.

Strikes in Lebanon were generally understood to be off limits. Both sides wanted to avoid another damaging war. Now that equation has changed.

Though Blanford said Hezbollah could still deliver blows to Israel, the group's "deterrence has been shattered by the recent war," he said.

In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Hezbollah political official Mohammad Fneish said the prospect of coexisting with daily Israeli attacks is "not acceptable."

But the group has largely limited itself to calling on Lebanon's government to pressure Israel with what Fneish called "its political, diplomatic or other capabilities."

He added: "If things develop further, then the resistance leadership is studying matters, and all options are open."

Yacoubian, the analyst, said she didn't see the situation in Lebanon changing any time soon, "barring a breakthrough in behind-the-scenes negotiations brokered by the US."

With the Gaza ceasefire, she said, the difference could be the "significant role" of fellow mediators Qatar, Egypt and Türkiye.