Pedersen Proposes a Plan for ‘Drafting Syria’s New Constitution’

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
TT

Pedersen Proposes a Plan for ‘Drafting Syria’s New Constitution’

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP

Geir Pedersen, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, has put forth a draft agreement designed to promote progress at the next round of talks on Syria’s constitution in Geneva. Copies of the proposed plan were sent to the two co-chairs of the Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC), Ahmad Kuzbari, who represents the Syrian government, and Hadi Albahra from the opposition.

The envoy’s initiative comes at a time when Russia, a key ally of the Syrian regime, is pressing for holding the sixth round of SCC talks right after Ramadan and presidential elections in the war-torn country are over.

For Pedersen, Moscow’s current interest in convening the sixth round of SCC talks can help induce a breakthrough in efforts for finding a new settlement and drafting a new constitution for the Levantine country.

Today, three active political tracks are currently steering the Syria peace process.

In one of them, Damascus is pushing for holding presidential elections according to the constitutional referendum passed in 2012.

While Moscow supports Syrians voting according to the 2012 constitution, it also recognizes the importance of promoting SCC efforts for two main reasons: giving legitimacy to elections in May and ensuring the political peace process is moving forward, albeit at a slow pace.

Last week, the Kremlin's Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev met with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to discuss Russia’s views on current developments in the political process.

Negotiations and shuttle diplomacy led by Pedersen between the regime and opposition representatives in the SCC are also playing a role in shaping future political steps taken in Syria.

During the meetings, Kuzbari rejected drafting a new constitution before first agreeing on certain national doctrines, like opposing the US and Turkish occupation, fighting terrorism, and adhering to the unity and sovereignty of Syria.

Nevertheless, the regime negotiator soon caved under Russian pressure and agreed to weigh up “constitutional principles.”

Despite the Assad government’s attempts to delay the peace process, Russia– which has provided considerable military and financial support to the Syrian government – is arguably keen to achieve a political settlement.

Moreover, Moscow recognizes that the SCC remains the most likely avenue to reach a political settlement for Syria.

Hoping to capitalize on Russia’s current interest, Pedersen is pushing for a written agreement between regime and opposition delegations at the SCC. On April 15, the UN envoy sent a draft agreement, which Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of in both English and Arabic, to each of Kuzbari and AlBahra.

Titled the “Proposed methodology for Sixth Session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body,” the document stressed that SCC was established and given power by an agreement between the Syrian government and the opposition’s High Negotiations Commission (HNC).

It also highlighted that the SCC “operates in accordance with the Terms of Reference and Core Rules of Procedure, as was also confirmed in the Code of Conduct.”

In the proposal, Pedersen presented a five-point plan for the next round of talks.

He requested that written proposals for basic principles to be included in the draft constitution be submitted by both the government and opposition delegations before heading to Geneva for negotiations.

According to Pedersen’s plan, at least one principle would be discussed at each meeting held by the SCC’s Small Body throughout days 1-4 of the sixth round of talks.

It is worth noting that the SCC’s Small Body includes 45 delegates representing the government, opposition, and civil society.

“Each Small Body meeting during days 1-4 of the session shall address and exhaust discussion of at least one of the basic constitutional principles,” said the proposal, adding that on day 5 representatives may seek to deepen any points of provisional agreement identified in the previous four days.

Perhaps one of the most controversial items on the envoy’s suggested scheme is arranging for periodic tripartite meetings between SCC co-chairs Kuzbari and AlBahra and Pedersen with the aim of “strengthening consensus and ensuring the good functioning of the committee.”

Russia, for its part, vowed to back meetings between Kuzbari and AlBahra with its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, saying that early presidential elections could be held in the case of reaching an agreement on a new draft constitution.

The offered vote, however, would only take place after already holding the presidential elections in which Assad is expected to win another seven years in office.

For the time being, observers have shifted their focus to how Kuzbari and AlBahra will respond to Pedersen’s plan in light of Moscow’s keenness for holding the sixth round of talks soon.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.