Pedersen Proposes a Plan for ‘Drafting Syria’s New Constitution’

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
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Pedersen Proposes a Plan for ‘Drafting Syria’s New Constitution’

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, AFP

Geir Pedersen, the UN’s special envoy for Syria, has put forth a draft agreement designed to promote progress at the next round of talks on Syria’s constitution in Geneva. Copies of the proposed plan were sent to the two co-chairs of the Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC), Ahmad Kuzbari, who represents the Syrian government, and Hadi Albahra from the opposition.

The envoy’s initiative comes at a time when Russia, a key ally of the Syrian regime, is pressing for holding the sixth round of SCC talks right after Ramadan and presidential elections in the war-torn country are over.

For Pedersen, Moscow’s current interest in convening the sixth round of SCC talks can help induce a breakthrough in efforts for finding a new settlement and drafting a new constitution for the Levantine country.

Today, three active political tracks are currently steering the Syria peace process.

In one of them, Damascus is pushing for holding presidential elections according to the constitutional referendum passed in 2012.

While Moscow supports Syrians voting according to the 2012 constitution, it also recognizes the importance of promoting SCC efforts for two main reasons: giving legitimacy to elections in May and ensuring the political peace process is moving forward, albeit at a slow pace.

Last week, the Kremlin's Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev met with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to discuss Russia’s views on current developments in the political process.

Negotiations and shuttle diplomacy led by Pedersen between the regime and opposition representatives in the SCC are also playing a role in shaping future political steps taken in Syria.

During the meetings, Kuzbari rejected drafting a new constitution before first agreeing on certain national doctrines, like opposing the US and Turkish occupation, fighting terrorism, and adhering to the unity and sovereignty of Syria.

Nevertheless, the regime negotiator soon caved under Russian pressure and agreed to weigh up “constitutional principles.”

Despite the Assad government’s attempts to delay the peace process, Russia– which has provided considerable military and financial support to the Syrian government – is arguably keen to achieve a political settlement.

Moreover, Moscow recognizes that the SCC remains the most likely avenue to reach a political settlement for Syria.

Hoping to capitalize on Russia’s current interest, Pedersen is pushing for a written agreement between regime and opposition delegations at the SCC. On April 15, the UN envoy sent a draft agreement, which Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of in both English and Arabic, to each of Kuzbari and AlBahra.

Titled the “Proposed methodology for Sixth Session of the Constitutional Committee Small Body,” the document stressed that SCC was established and given power by an agreement between the Syrian government and the opposition’s High Negotiations Commission (HNC).

It also highlighted that the SCC “operates in accordance with the Terms of Reference and Core Rules of Procedure, as was also confirmed in the Code of Conduct.”

In the proposal, Pedersen presented a five-point plan for the next round of talks.

He requested that written proposals for basic principles to be included in the draft constitution be submitted by both the government and opposition delegations before heading to Geneva for negotiations.

According to Pedersen’s plan, at least one principle would be discussed at each meeting held by the SCC’s Small Body throughout days 1-4 of the sixth round of talks.

It is worth noting that the SCC’s Small Body includes 45 delegates representing the government, opposition, and civil society.

“Each Small Body meeting during days 1-4 of the session shall address and exhaust discussion of at least one of the basic constitutional principles,” said the proposal, adding that on day 5 representatives may seek to deepen any points of provisional agreement identified in the previous four days.

Perhaps one of the most controversial items on the envoy’s suggested scheme is arranging for periodic tripartite meetings between SCC co-chairs Kuzbari and AlBahra and Pedersen with the aim of “strengthening consensus and ensuring the good functioning of the committee.”

Russia, for its part, vowed to back meetings between Kuzbari and AlBahra with its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, saying that early presidential elections could be held in the case of reaching an agreement on a new draft constitution.

The offered vote, however, would only take place after already holding the presidential elections in which Assad is expected to win another seven years in office.

For the time being, observers have shifted their focus to how Kuzbari and AlBahra will respond to Pedersen’s plan in light of Moscow’s keenness for holding the sixth round of talks soon.



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.