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Fitch: Egypt among Top MENA Countries to See Pre-COVID Growth Rates in 2021

Vendors work at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease pandemic in Cairo. (File/Reuters)
Vendors work at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease pandemic in Cairo. (File/Reuters)
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Fitch: Egypt among Top MENA Countries to See Pre-COVID Growth Rates in 2021

Vendors work at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease pandemic in Cairo. (File/Reuters)
Vendors work at a vegetable market amid the coronavirus disease pandemic in Cairo. (File/Reuters)

Egypt is one of three MENA economies that will see GDP growth return to pre-covid levels in 2021, Fitch Solutions analysts said on Tuesday.

“The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) monetary easing of 400 bps last year, as well as expanded fiscal spending and well-executed stimulus policies, helped to cushion the economic blow of the pandemic,” MENA country risk analyst Selim Elbadri said.

Egypt’s GDP is expected to grow at a 2.9% clip in FY2020-2021, marking a slight downwards revision of the 3% Fitch predicted in January due to the vaccine rollout.

The recovery of the tourism sector, the expansion in natural gas production, and Suez Canal revenues, as well as the monetary easing policies of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) are expected to drive the country’s economic growth, according to Badri.

Also, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that the Egyptian economy's growth rate during the current year will be 2.5 percent compared with 3.6 percent in 2020.

In its April report, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 6 percent in 2021. However, it expected it to shrink to 4.4 percent in 2020.

“As the recovery strengthens in 2021, global trade is projected to accelerate to 8.4 percent, mainly because of the rebound in merchandise volumes. Cross-border services trade (tourism, transportation) is expected to remain subdued until the pandemic is brought under control everywhere.” the report said.

“The pandemic continues to exact a large toll on sub-Saharan Africa. Following the largest contraction ever for the region (–1.9 percent in 2020), growth is expected to rebound to 3.4 percent in 2021, significantly lower than the trend anticipated before the pandemic,” IMF added in its report.

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FAO Aims for Key Outcomes at COP16 in Saudi Arabia

Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
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FAO Aims for Key Outcomes at COP16 in Saudi Arabia

Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)
Preparations in the Saudi capital ahead of hosting the COP16 conference on combating desertification (from the “COP16” page on the X platform)

Dr. Abdul Hakim Elwaer, Assistant Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), stated that the organization will take an active role at COP16, the UN conference on combating desertification, scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia in early December.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he expressed confidence that the conference—the first of its kind in the Middle East—would produce significant outcomes.

Elwaer’s comments came during a roundtable organized by FAO’s regional office in Cairo, attended by a select group of media representatives. The session focused on FAO’s participation in the upcoming conference and the importance of the Rio Trio —the integrated framework of the three major UN conventions addressing climate change, biodiversity conservation, and desertification.

Fida Haddad, FAO’s Program Officer for Land Rehabilitation and Climate Change, highlighted the interconnectedness of the three conventions and noted that COP16 would place a strong emphasis on land and water rehabilitation and their sustainable management.

Haddad pointed out that approximately 90% of the Middle East is affected by arid conditions. Despite this, local communities and Arab governments have made notable progress in addressing desertification and drought. She also announced that, for the first time, FAO has successfully placed food systems on the COP16 agenda, enabling discussions on how land rehabilitation can enhance food supply chains and systems.

Elwaer underscored FAO’s central role in achieving the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG): eradicating hunger. He emphasized that FAO actively engages in the UN conventions on climate change, biodiversity, and desertification, which collectively contribute to this mission.

FAO’s focus, according to Elwaer, is on transforming food and agricultural systems to become more inclusive, efficient, and sustainable, aiming for better production, nutrition, and livelihoods. He highlighted the organization’s success in integrating these priorities into the agendas of the three conventions and collaborating with host countries on joint initiatives.

He further noted that Saudi Arabia’s hosting of COP16 is particularly significant for the region, which faces pressing challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, and food insecurity. The conference presents an opportunity for Middle Eastern nations to highlight these issues, explore solutions, and ensure their inclusion in global environmental discussions, not only at this event but in future COP sessions, he underlined.

Elwaer emphasized the growing global attention on desertification, as it is now impacting regions previously unaffected, such as southern Europe and parts of Latin America. These areas are witnessing alarming declines in arable land and forests, prompting them to seek lessons from the Arab world, which has developed resilience strategies to combat desertification over centuries.

FAO will have a strong presence at COP16, with two dedicated pavilions—one in the Blue Zone for official delegations and another in the Green Zone to engage civil society and conference participants, he said.

He added that in collaboration with Saudi Arabia and the UN, FAO will lead coordination on Food Day and Governance Day, scheduled for December 5 and 6, respectively. The organization will also participate in other specialized sessions throughout the conference.