18 Iraqis Killed in Multiple Night-Time ISIS Raids

Peshmerga forces in the Alton Kubre region after the ISIS attacks. (Rudaw)
Peshmerga forces in the Alton Kubre region after the ISIS attacks. (Rudaw)
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18 Iraqis Killed in Multiple Night-Time ISIS Raids

Peshmerga forces in the Alton Kubre region after the ISIS attacks. (Rudaw)
Peshmerga forces in the Alton Kubre region after the ISIS attacks. (Rudaw)

Eighteen Iraqis, the majority military personnel, were killed overnight Friday to Saturday in separate extremist attacks mainly in the greater Baghdad area, security sources told AFP.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks, but they are in line with the modus operandi of the ISIS group, which still has sleeper cells in Iraq despite its territorial defeat in 2017.

One attack targeted troops in Tarmiya, an agricultural suburb 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the Iraqi capital.

"ISIS fighters attacked an Iraqi army convoy at night and killed two officers and two soldiers," a security official said, on condition of anonymity.

Reinforcements were dispatched to the area but also came under fire, with "an officer and two soldiers" killed, the source said.

A member of tribal fighters integrated into the regular forces that were then deployed to the scene was also killed, "along with a civilian caught in the crossfire", the source added.

Further north, in the central Alton Kubre region, "six peshmerga (Kurdish fighters) were killed when ISIS group extremists attacked their military position with light arms", another security official told AFP.

Alton Kubre is a disputed area claimed by both the federal government in Baghdad and the autonomous Kurdistan authorities.

Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani called for the global US-led military coalition to fill the “security gaps” in the disputed regions.

He urged the Iraqi parliament and federal government, as well as the coalition, to speed up efforts to establish a joint force comprised of the Peshmerga and Iraqi military to address the security in the disputes regions to prevent ISIS from undermining the situation.

The group, he warned, is a threat to Kurdistan, Iraq, the region and whole world.

Another attack took place in the western desert bordering Syria, a third security source said.

"An officer and a soldier were killed in a bomb explosion while an army convoy was en route to Akashat," he said.

A soldier was also killed in a bomb blast in Diyala province, which borders Baghdad to the east, according to another official, who added that two other fighters were also wounded in a separate attack.

Iraq in late 2017 declared victory over ISIS, which had overrun swathes of the country and neighboring Syria three years earlier.

However, sleeper cells holed up in mountains and deserts continue to carry out deadly attacks across the country, often at night in remote areas and with light weapons.

Following the latest attacks, Iraqi President Barham Salih called in a tweet for continued "effective international support to eradicate terror across the region".

The US-led military coalition has been in Iraq since 2014 to help fight ISIS but a vote in parliament last year called for the departure of all foreign troops from the country.

Bakhtiyar Mohammed Sadiq, senior aide at the Peshmerga Ministry, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the attacks are a “dangerous precedent.”

They prove that ISIS was here to stay and capable of carrying out sophisticated attacks, seeing as it attacked Iraqi and Peshmerga forces in one blow, he warned.

They also demonstrate the poor security coordination between the Peshmerga and the federal security forces, he added.

The main reason such attacks persist is the lack of understanding between the leaders of these forces, he remarked, noting instead that tensions exist between them “that at times reach the point of hostility.”



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”