Gaza Violence and Unrest at Home Raise Specter of New Israel Election

Israel's centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid has until June 3 to form a government - AFP
Israel's centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid has until June 3 to form a government - AFP
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Gaza Violence and Unrest at Home Raise Specter of New Israel Election

Israel's centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid has until June 3 to form a government - AFP
Israel's centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid has until June 3 to form a government - AFP

Israel's battle with Gaza militants and unprecedented inter-communal violence at home have further complicated efforts to form a government, raising the specter of yet another general election, experts say.

That could be a political boon to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose best hope of extending his record 12 straight years in office could hang on a fifth Israeli election since April 2019.

But the ideologically divided anti-Netanyahu camp still has a narrow window to reach a deal that would oust the hawkish premier: centrist opposition leader Yair Lapid's 28-day mandate to form a government expires on June 3.

"Most analysts regard a fifth election as the most probable outcome," said Toby Greene, a political scientist at Bar Ilan University.

"But we have 10 days left, and that's a very long time in Israeli politics."

A Lapid-Bennett deal would have required at least some support from pro-Palestinian and non-Zionist Arab lawmakers, which was already uncomfortable political terrain both for them and for Bennett, a Jewish nationalist.

The chances of such a deal took a severe blow earlier this month as Gaza militants launched rockets into Israel and Arab rioters torched synagogues in multiple mixed communities inside Israel.

That forced Bennett to "reconsider his choice to form a government together with Arab-supported parties," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute think-tank.

Before conflict flared with armed Palestinian groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad on May 10, Netanyahu's political future looked precarious.

On trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust, the premier had failed in a March 23 vote to secure enough seats with his allies to build a majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament.

His mandate to form a government expired on May 4, handing Lapid a chance to try.

But Yonatan Freeman, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said it was in Israel's "political DNA to support the incumbent" when conflict flares.

As Israel ramped up its air strikes in Gaza in response to Palestinian rocket attacks, Netanyahu made joint appearances with his bitter political enemy, Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

Crisis leadership, experts say, may have helped Netanyahu reinforce an image that has helped him endure in politics for decades: the security-focused statesman who defends Israel against external threats.

The crisis also "caused a fissure among the opposing camp," Plesner said.

Lapid's best, and possibly only, hope of forming a government involved a prospective deal with Naftali Bennett, leader of the right-wing religious Yamina party.

Bennett and Lapid are ideological opponents, but both have prioritized averting a fifth election and ending the divisive Netanyahu era.

A deal would have seen Bennett serving as prime minister in a rotation, a move that could harm his standings among some rightwing supporters.

But at the same time, it would constitute a "huge opportunity for Bennett to present himself as prime ministerial material" as part of his efforts to become Netanyahu's successor, Greene said.

And without Bennett, centrist former television anchor Lapid has little space to make a deal to unite the splintered anti-Netanyahu camp.

After the Gaza crisis, "it's unlikely, but not impossible," Plesner said.

He added that Netanyahu, "as Israel's most seasoned politician," may be now able to coax rivals into his camp.

He listed Gantz and Gideon Saar, a right-winger who defected from Netanyahu's Likud last year, as possible candidates.

But with all blocs struggling to build a coalition, "the most likely outcome at this point is that Israel is headed to a fifth election," Plesner said.

After Israel agreed a mutual ceasefire with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the inter-communal violence eased, Lapid's Yesh Atid party said coalition talks would resume Monday.

It said Bennett's Yamina would not attend.

Yet Freeman of the Hebrew University said the crisis could actually drive momentum towards a unity government.

The inter-communal violence saw both Arab and Jewish rioters attack religious sites, among other targets.

Freeman told AFP the Arab violence in solidarity with Gaza raised profound concern across Israel's security establishment: if the Hamas conflict were to flare again, so could the internal strife.

He suggested that the imperative to offer Arab lawmakers a role in the government as a gesture of unity could create incentive for political compromise in the days ahead.

Whether Netanyahu or another leader is capable of crafting a broad, inter-communal coalition remains highly uncertain.

But, Freeman said, "people are looking for ways to mitigate against this violence happening again. Bringing more Arab politicians into the fold could be a way of doing that".



Taiwan Shuts Down as Strong Typhoon Kong-Rey Hits, One Dead

This Himawari satellite handout image from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) website in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) and Colorado State University-CIRA (CSU/CIRA) taken and released on October 31, 2024 shows typhoon Kong-rey developing over the Pacific as it approaches Taiwan (center L). (Photo by Handout / various sources / AFP)
This Himawari satellite handout image from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) website in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) and Colorado State University-CIRA (CSU/CIRA) taken and released on October 31, 2024 shows typhoon Kong-rey developing over the Pacific as it approaches Taiwan (center L). (Photo by Handout / various sources / AFP)
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Taiwan Shuts Down as Strong Typhoon Kong-Rey Hits, One Dead

This Himawari satellite handout image from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) website in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) and Colorado State University-CIRA (CSU/CIRA) taken and released on October 31, 2024 shows typhoon Kong-rey developing over the Pacific as it approaches Taiwan (center L). (Photo by Handout / various sources / AFP)
This Himawari satellite handout image from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) website in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NOAA/NESDIS) and Colorado State University-CIRA (CSU/CIRA) taken and released on October 31, 2024 shows typhoon Kong-rey developing over the Pacific as it approaches Taiwan (center L). (Photo by Handout / various sources / AFP)

A strong Typhoon Kong-rey made landfall on Taiwan's east coast on Thursday, the largest storm by size to hit the island in nearly 30 years, closing financial markets, causing hundreds of flights to be cancelled and reducing rail services.
The typhoon knocked out power to nearly half a million households, the government said.
The storm hit the mountainous and sparsely populated east coast county of Taitung, according to Taiwan's Central Weather Administration, with strong winds and torrential rain affecting almost all the island.
The fire department reported one person had died when their truck hit a fallen tree in central Taiwan.
At one point a super typhoon, Kong-rey slightly weakened overnight but remained powerful as the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane packing gusts of more than 250 kph (155 mph), according to Tropical Storm Risk.
Taiwan's weather administration put the typhoon's size at the biggest to hit the island since 1996.
"I hope that everyone in the country will co-operate in avoiding disaster and refraining from engaging in dangerous behaviour such as wave watching during the typhoon," President Lai Ching-te wrote on his Facebook page.
Administration forecaster Gene Huang said after hitting the east coast it would head towards the Taiwan Strait as a much weakened storm and urged people across the island to stay at home due to the danger of high winds.
Environmental officials were working on Thursday to prevent oil leaking from a Chinese cargo ship beached against rocks on Taiwan's northern coast after losing power in turbulent weather.
Warnings for destructive winds of more than 160 kph (100 mph) were issued in Taitung, whose outlying Lanyu island recorded gusts above 260 kph (162 mph) before some of the wind-barometers there went offline.
"It was terrifying last night. Many people on the island didn't sleep, worrying about something happening to their house," Sinan Rapongan, a government official on Lanyu, also known as Orchid Island, told Reuters.
Some roofs had been damaged and more than 1,300 homes had lost power but so far no injuries had been reported, she added.
Parts of eastern Taiwan recorded one meter (3.3 feet) of rainfall since the typhoon began approaching on Wednesday.
The defense ministry has put 36,000 troops on standby to help with rescue efforts, while almost 10,000 people have been evacuated from high risk areas ahead of time, the government said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's largest contract chipmaker and major supplier to companies like Apple and Nvidia, said it has activated routine typhoon alert preparation procedures at all its factories and construction sites.
"We do not expect significant impact to our operations," it said in an emailed statement.
Taiwan's transport ministry said 314 international flights had been cancelled, along with all domestic flights.
Taiwan's high speed railway, which connects major cities on its populated western plains, continued to operate with a much reduced service.
Kong-rey is forecast to graze China along the coast of Fujian province on Friday morning. China's financial hub Shanghai is bracing for potentially the worst rains in more than 40 years.
Subtropical Taiwan is frequently hit by typhoons. The last one, Typhoon Krathon, killed four people earlier this month as it passed through the south of the island.