World Bank Upgrades Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast in 21/22

File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
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World Bank Upgrades Saudi Arabia’s Growth Forecast in 21/22

File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)
File photo of The World Bank logo (Reuters)

Saudi Arabia is forecast to grow 2.4 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2022, according to a World Bank report.

Previous estimates suggested that the Saudi economy was set to grow 2 percent in 2021 and 2.2 percent in 2022.

The report explained that its forecast changed following positive developments that took place during the pandemic, in addition to higher oil prices and tapering oil production cuts, and the start of a new government investment program.

The World Bank believes that in Saudi Arabia, “additional oil production cuts deepened the contraction in the oil sector but was offset by improving growth momentum in the non-oil sector.”

The World Bank stated that in oil exporters, higher oil prices will support growth and government revenue recoveries.

“Oil prices are expected to average $62 per barrel in 2021 and 2022.”

Meanwhile, the Regional Economic Outlook report issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), estimates the growth of non-oil GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to hit 3.5 percent in 2021, and then 3.4 percent in 2022.

Regarding Saudi Arabia, it expects the Kingdom's economy to grow 2.9 percent in 2021, while it is expected to reach 4 percent in 2022.

For its part, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) announced in its latest report that the Kingdom’s GDP will grow 2.4 percent this year, while it will jump to 3.1 percent in 2022.

The Saudi Central Bank (Sama) reported in its recent data an increase in the value of point of sales (POS), which expresses the volume of direct individual consumption in the country. It increased 3 percent last week to reach SR9.4 billion, compared to SR9.17 billion during the previous week.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.