Syrian Drought Puts Assad’s ‘Year of Wheat’ in Peril

A farmer pours a bucket of wheat kernels into a sack during the harvest season, in a field in the countryside of al-Kaswa, south of Syria's capital Damascus, June 18, 2020. (AFP)
A farmer pours a bucket of wheat kernels into a sack during the harvest season, in a field in the countryside of al-Kaswa, south of Syria's capital Damascus, June 18, 2020. (AFP)
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Syrian Drought Puts Assad’s ‘Year of Wheat’ in Peril

A farmer pours a bucket of wheat kernels into a sack during the harvest season, in a field in the countryside of al-Kaswa, south of Syria's capital Damascus, June 18, 2020. (AFP)
A farmer pours a bucket of wheat kernels into a sack during the harvest season, in a field in the countryside of al-Kaswa, south of Syria's capital Damascus, June 18, 2020. (AFP)

The “year of wheat” campaign pushed by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in jeopardy after low rainfall risked leaving an import gap of at least 1.5 million tons, according to preliminary estimates by officials and experts.

The agricultural blow and lack of funds to finance the imports will add to pressure on a Syrian economy already reeling from ten years of conflict and buckling under the pressure of US sanctions, neighboring Lebanon’s financial collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russia, one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and Assad’s staunch ally, has said it would sell one million tons of grain to Syria throughout the year to help it meet the four million tons of annual domestic demand.

But its cargoes have been slow to arrive in recent years as funds grew scarce, with publicly available customs data showing no significant supplies to Syria.

Officials and an expert at the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated at least 1.5 million tons of wheat imports were needed. They said a 1.2-million-ton government purchasing target, driven by forced sales to the government, now looked wildly unrealistic.

Abdullah Khader, 49, a landowner and farmer in Raqqa province, said the lack of rain meant his crop was almost a quarter of last year’s. Minister of Agriculture Mohammed Hassan Qatana talked about the fate of the domestic crop during a tour with his team this week of the country’s bread basket in the northeast Hasaka province, where much of the country’s cereals crop is in the hands of breakaway Kurds.

“It’s clear from the tour the huge impact of the climatic changes, that all rain-fed plantations have been taken out of investments and even the irrigated wheat areas production has gone down 50%,” Qatana said. According to two UN experts, that could mean at least half of the planted acreage of 1.5 million hectares could be wiped out.

Bread shortages
Much of the domestic wheat demand is needed to support a government bread subsidy program.

Syria’s financial troubles have already translated into bread shortages in the past year with residents complaining of long queues across government-controlled areas, in some instances running up to five hours.

The World Food Program said in March a record 12.4 million Syrians, more than 60% of the population, suffer from food insecurity and hunger, double the number seen in 2018.

Syrians are increasingly dependent on subsidized bread as rampant inflation has driven up food prices more than 200% in the last year, according to the World Bank.

Qatana had appealed to farmers to prioritize wheat this year so the country could “return to eating what we plant.”

“We are facing endless economic pressures, our food means our existence,” he told state media in November.

A rise in last year’s harvest had raised expectations, with an increase of 52% compared to a five-year average, according to FAO data.

“I sowed my 80 donums (8 hectares), hoping it will be a good season,” said Mustafa al-Tahan, 36, a farmer in northern Hama countryside. “I have lost everything and the yields have been very poor with little rain.”

Kurdish supplies
About 70% of wheat production still lies outside of government control and its more aggressive position as sole buyer, forcing it to compete with other bidders by doubling the buying price this season to 900 Syrian pounds a kilo, or around $300-$320 per ton.

But Damascus is unlikely to get any supplies from farmers under the Kurdish-led administration in the northeast, where over 60% of the country’s wheat is grown.

The Kurdish-led autonomous administration expects to collect around half last year’s 850,000 tons due to poor rain and lower water levels along the Euphrates banks, which are down by at least five meters.

Along with higher prices to farmers that are denominated in dollars to deter them from selling to Damascus, the self-administration has so far banned any sale outside its territory.

The 1,150 pounds a kilo purchase price was set substantially higher than the Damascus level to ensure the northeast administration gets the largest possible quantity to enable self-sufficiency, Kurdish officials say.

“The season is very bad and will affect severely food production,” Salman Barudo, who is in charge of grains procurement in the Kurdish-led autonomous northeast, said.

The Kurdish-led authorities, who have had extensive trade ties with Damascus, have so far rejected Russian mediation to allow farmers to sell part of their produce to Damascus as in previous years, two Kurdish sources said.



Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
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Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)

A prevailing impression is growing in Lebanon that the only way for Israel to end its war on Hezbollah is when its losses on the ground become too great for it to ignore.

Israel is incurring deaths in the South on a nearly daily basis as the war approaches the one-month mark.

Observers are in agreement that the battle is difficult for both Israel and Hezbollah, raising questions about whether Israel was prepared for the number of losses.

Founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji wondered: “Are the Israeli losses expected or acceptable and withing reason? Only time will tell.”

“If the battle goes on for more weeks, then it is evidence that it was expected; if it stops within days, it means that the losses exceeded their expectations and they will have to reconsider their options,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted that Israel is losing four to five soldiers on a daily basis.

The fighting will likely go on as diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire continue.

Israel doesn’t always reveal the number of its casualties, but estimates have said they reached 40 in recent days. Hezbollah, on the other hand, stopped declaring the death of its fighters last month.

The Iran-backed party’s casualties had reached 508 in the latest tally. Estimates today believe the figure to have reached a thousand.

Israeli media on Sunday reported that 22 soldiers and officers were killed in fighting in Gaza and southern Lebanon last week. The Israeli army announced the death of one soldier on Sunday and four on Saturday in the South. Israeli media said 88 soldiers were wounded in the past 48 hours of fighting.

Kahwaji said the ground battles are a normal part of the war and Hezbollah is very prepared for them. It has dug tunnels and built fortifications and knows the terrain very well, so the Israeli army is inevitably going to incur losses and Israeli military officials have acknowledged the difficulty of the battle.

Kahwaji highlighted Hezbollah’s decision to stop declaring its losses since the pager attack last month.

“Since then, we no longer hear anything about the party’s losses. The Israeli army, however, cannot hide its casualties,” he remarked.