Lebanese Interior Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Fear Chaos, Further Deterioration of Security

Lebanese caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. (AFP file photo)
Lebanese caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. (AFP file photo)
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Lebanese Interior Minister to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Fear Chaos, Further Deterioration of Security

Lebanese caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. (AFP file photo)
Lebanese caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi. (AFP file photo)

The deterioration of security and safety is another concern added to the Lebanese people’s massive financial, economic, social and political problems.

Security had been largely maintained in recent months, but as the people plunge deeper in crisis, the threat of instability grows.

The dire economy has led to a rise in crime and theft. Some people have said they no longer go out at night except for emergencies, they no longer travel long distances, avoid heading to ATMs at night and no longer wear precious jewelry.

Thefts and muggings have been reported across the country in recent days. A fuel tanker was forced to stop and its shipment seized. Drivers delivering baby milk and medical supplies have also been stopped.

In one incident, one citizen was lured to the town of al-Khodr near the international highway in eastern Lebanon and was robbed of his oil shipment, worth 20 million liras, or 13,000 dollars according to the official exchange rate.

Reports have also said that people exiting supermarkets have been robbed of their groceries.

Caretaker Interior Minister Mohammed Fahmi said that he had warned back in March that Lebanon was on the verge of major social insecurity.

“Many people are hungry. They can tolerate many things, except seeing their children go hungry,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“As long as the situation persists, then chaos will grow, but it will not turn into total chaos,” he added.

“We will use all of our might to uphold the law and protect the people and public and private properties,” he vowed.

Information International reported a rise in murder and theft since the beginning of 2021. Murder has risen 45.5 percent and theft by 144 percent.

CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis – Inegma, Riad Kahwaji said the situation will deteriorate even further given that the dispute to form a new government and tackle the country’s economic crisis is unlikely to be resolved any time soon.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that as the local currency weakens the people will find themselves confronted with more challenges in securing their daily needs.

He warned that the basic security, economic, food, education, environment, health, political and social essentials are lacking in Lebanon.

Meeting these needs is the responsibility of the state, which it has failed to do, rendering Lebanon a failed state, he added.

Kahwaji said it was normal to witness a rise in theft and crime. “Lebanon is in a state of freefall and no one knows how and when this tragedy will end.”

Given the mounting insecurity, people have resorted to protecting their homes, such as installing new doors or acquiring guard dogs.

Randa al-Habr, 44, told Asharq Al-Awsat: “This is the first time in years that I no longer feel safe.”

“I don’t feel safe at home or on the street. Unfortunately, I believe immigration is the only way out for me,” she lamented.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.