Global Stocks Rise Even as China's Manufacturing Slows

A woman walks past a bank's electronic board showing the Hong Kong share index at Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong Monday, Aug. 2, 2021.Vincent Yu/AP
A woman walks past a bank's electronic board showing the Hong Kong share index at Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong Monday, Aug. 2, 2021.Vincent Yu/AP
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Global Stocks Rise Even as China's Manufacturing Slows

A woman walks past a bank's electronic board showing the Hong Kong share index at Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong Monday, Aug. 2, 2021.Vincent Yu/AP
A woman walks past a bank's electronic board showing the Hong Kong share index at Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong Monday, Aug. 2, 2021.Vincent Yu/AP

Global stocks started the week higher Monday, even as China reported a slowdown in manufacturing activity and countries continued to be hammered by the delta variant.

Investors were spurred by encouraging earnings on Wall Street, which recently wrapped up another strong month. The S&P 500 notched six straight months of gains ending July.

France’s CAC 40 added 1% in early trading to 6,677.27 while Germany’s DAX gained 0.4% to 15,606.27. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.9% to 7,096.59.

US shares were set for a positive opening, with S&P 500 futures advancing 0.6% to 4,414.75. Dow futures climbed 0.5% to 35,007.

A notable 89% of companies on the S&P 500 have beaten earnings expectations, but it is unclear if the market upswing will persist, Yeap Jun Rong of IG said.

“Guidance from several big tech companies is pointing to slower growth ahead and markets may need to find another catalyst to drive further upside,” he added.

The moves follow a buoyant Asian session, where Tokyo's Nikkei 225 jumped 1.8% to close at 27,781.02. The Kospi in Seoul rose 0.7% to 3,223.04, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong climbed 1.1% to 26,235.80.

The Shanghai Composite index added 2% to 3,464.29 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.3% at 7,491.40. Benchmarks mostly rose across the region.

The gains in China follow data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics showing the country’s official purchasing managers’ index fell to 50.4 in July from 50.9 in June. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion on the 100-point scale.

On Monday, a monthly manufacturing survey issued by a business magazine, Caixin, put July’s reading at 50.3. That was down from June’s 51.3.

The official figure was the lowest since February 2020, when a lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus was in place. Analysts had expected a smaller easing of manufacturing activity.

China is also dealing with an outbreak of the delta variant of the coronavirus, which has already been running rampant in many other Asian nations.

Traders are also watching a crackdown by Beijing on Chinese tech companies, even as authorities moved to soothe fears.

Games and social media giant Tencent Holding Ltd. fell 0.8% in Hong Kong on Monday. However, internet search giant Baidu Inc. was up 2.2% and e-commerce giant Alibaba Group gained 1.5%.

Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes eased in early trade, before “abruptly reversing course” as foreign investors pumped almost a billion dollars in markets, Jeffrey Halley of Oanda said in a report.

“That has seen a stunning reversal as regulatory risk has been forgotten,” Halley added.

In other trading, US benchmark crude oil lost 65 cents to $73.30 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude oil declined 62 cents to $74.79.

The US dollar rose to 109.65 Japanese yen from 109.62 yen on Friday. The euro advanced to $1.1888 from $1.1875.



US Fed Set to Hold Rates Steady in the Face of Trump Pressure

An eagle tops the US Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. (Reuters)
An eagle tops the US Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. (Reuters)
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US Fed Set to Hold Rates Steady in the Face of Trump Pressure

An eagle tops the US Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. (Reuters)
An eagle tops the US Federal Reserve building's facade in Washington, July 31, 2013. (Reuters)

The US central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight policy meeting this week, despite President Donald Trump's push for rate cuts, as officials contend with uncertainty sparked by the Republican's tariffs.

While the independent Federal Reserve has started lowering rates from recent highs, officials have held the level steady this year as Trump's tariffs began rippling through the world's biggest economy.

The Fed has kept interest rates between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent since December, while it monitors the health of the jobs market and inflation.

"The hope is to stay below the radar screen at this meeting," KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told AFP. "Uncertainty is still very high."

"Until they know sufficiently, and convincingly that inflation is not going to pick up" either in response to tariffs or related threats, "they just can't move," she said.

Since returning to the presidency, Trump has slapped a 10 percent tariff on most US trading partners. Higher rates on dozens of economies are due to take effect in July, unless an existing pause is extended.

Trump has also engaged in a tit-for-tat tariff war with China and imposed levies on imports of steel, aluminum and automobiles, rattling financial markets and tanking consumer sentiment.

But economists expect it will take three to four months for tariff effects to show up in consumer prices.

Although hiring has cooled slightly and there was some shrinking of the labor force according to government data, the unemployment rate has stayed unchanged.

Inflation has been muted too, even as analysts noted signs of smaller business margins -- meaning companies are bearing the brunt of tariffs for now.

At the end of the Fed's two-day meeting Wednesday, analysts will be parsing through its economic projections for changes to growth and unemployment expectations and for signs of the number of rate cuts to come.

The Fed faces growing pressure from Trump, citing benign inflation data, to lower rates more quickly, a move the president argues will help the country "pay much less interest on debt coming due."

On Wednesday, Trump urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to slash interest rates by a full percentage point, and on Thursday, he called Powell a "numbskull" for not doing so.

He said Powell could raise rates again if inflation picked up then.

But Powell has defended US central bank independence over interest rates when engaging with Trump.

- 'Cautious patience' -

For their part, Fed policymakers have signaled "little urgency" to adjust rates, said EY chief economist Gregory Daco.

He believes they are unwilling to get ahead of the net effects from Trump's trade, tax, immigration and regulation policy changes.

Powell "will likely strike a tone of cautious patience, reiterating that policy remains data dependent," Daco said.

While economists have warned that Trump's tariffs would fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth, supporters of Trump's policies argue the president's plans for tax cuts next year will boost the economy.

On the Fed's path ahead, HSBC Global Research said: "Weak labor market data could lead to larger cuts, while elevated inflation would tend to imply the opposite."

For now, analysts expect the central bank to slash rates two more times this year, beginning in September.

The Fed is likely to be eyeing data over the summer for inflationary pressures from tariffs, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

"They want to make sure that they're reading the tea leaves correctly," he said.

Swonk warned the US economy is in a different place than during the Covid-19 pandemic, which could change how consumers react to price increases.

During the pandemic, government stimulus payments helped households cushion the blow from higher costs, allowing them to keep spending.

It is unclear if consumers, a key driver of the economy, will keep their dollars flowing this time, meaning demand could collapse and complicate the Fed's calculus.

"If this had been a world without tariffs, the Fed would be cutting right now. There's no question," Swonk said.