US Ambassador in Baghdad Escalates Tone Against Armed Factions

This picture taken on July 27, 2020 shows a Soviet-built Iraqi tank outside al Qurain Martyr’s Museum, home to a battle which lasted 10 hours between invading Iraqi troops and a group of Kuwaiti fighters during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, in Kuwait City. (AFP)
This picture taken on July 27, 2020 shows a Soviet-built Iraqi tank outside al Qurain Martyr’s Museum, home to a battle which lasted 10 hours between invading Iraqi troops and a group of Kuwaiti fighters during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, in Kuwait City. (AFP)
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US Ambassador in Baghdad Escalates Tone Against Armed Factions

This picture taken on July 27, 2020 shows a Soviet-built Iraqi tank outside al Qurain Martyr’s Museum, home to a battle which lasted 10 hours between invading Iraqi troops and a group of Kuwaiti fighters during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, in Kuwait City. (AFP)
This picture taken on July 27, 2020 shows a Soviet-built Iraqi tank outside al Qurain Martyr’s Museum, home to a battle which lasted 10 hours between invading Iraqi troops and a group of Kuwaiti fighters during the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait, in Kuwait City. (AFP)

The United States escalated on Monday its tone against pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq.

US Ambassador to Baghdad Matthew Tueller said that the restructuring of US forces does not mean that they will all quit Iraq, which is being demanded by the factions.

In remarks to the media over Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi talks with US President Joe Biden in Washington last month, the envoy added: “The restructuring of our forces does not mean the departure of all forces, but rather a change in their mission according to the timetable at the end of this year, and there will be US forces within the international coalition for advice and training.”

He stressed that the US deployment in Iraq to combat ISIS was legitimate, while describing the armed factions as a “problem”.

Moreover, he noted, in a clear reference to Iran, that some of Iraq’s neighbors view it as having a weak state, which encourages them to meddle in its affairs and impose their agenda. Tueller also accused the factions of harboring sectarian political foreign agendas.

Clearly, Iraq is still processing Kadhimi’s visit to Washington. The visit is weighing heavily on the Fatah coalition that initially welcomed the outcomes of the strategic dialogue the PM held with American officials. However, fractures have emerged with the Asaib Ahl al-Haq, a member of the coalition, expressing its rejection of the talks.

Other armed factions have also announced their rejection, but they have not resumed their attacks against what they describe as American targets in Iraq.

Kadhimi hosted on Sunday several political forces, as well as President Barham Salih and parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, to tackle the strategic dialogue and the upcoming October elections, which Washington has strongly supported.

The factions’ continued silence over the visit remains baffling at a time when more powers are coming out to express their backing of the premier’s talks.

Observers have attributed the silence to a secret visit carried out by commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, to Baghdad. His brief stop has helped delay the expected confrontation between the armed factions and the US in Iraq.

As it stands, Kadhimi appears as the victor after the trip. A statement after Sunday’s meeting said that the talks underscored the outcomes of the strategic dialogue, which effectively calls for returning ties between Baghdad and Washington to the way they were before 2014 when Iraq requested the US help to fight ISIS.

With this, Kadhimi tosses the ball in the court of his predecessors, Nuri al-Maliki, who did not attend Sunday’s meeting, and Haidar al-Abadi, who did.

Furthermore, Kadhimi managed on Sunday to receive the official backing of the dialogue from various leaders of coalitions, including Hadi al-Ameri, Falih al-Fayyad and Hammam Hammoudi. The gatherers not only expressed support to the dialogue, but added that it falls in line with national Iraqi principles, sovereign interests and security and helps build close ties between Baghdad and Washington.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”