Lebanon Endures Severe Wave of Human Capital Flight

Medical staff at the entrance of the AUBMC (AFP).
Medical staff at the entrance of the AUBMC (AFP).
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Lebanon Endures Severe Wave of Human Capital Flight

Medical staff at the entrance of the AUBMC (AFP).
Medical staff at the entrance of the AUBMC (AFP).

It may seem that all the losses that Lebanon has been incurring for nearly two years as a result of the economic and social crises are remediable, if the country is put on the right reform track in the coming years. All losses can be compensated... But the severe brain drain will leave resounding repercussions in Lebanese society, threatening the country with a bleak future.

The new wave of emigration that the country has been witnessing since 2019, which started with the collapse of the banking sector and the seizure of depositors’ money, was - until mid-2020 - understandable and expected, to some extent. However, with the Beirut Port explosion on Aug. 4, 2020, which destroyed half of the capital and claimed more than 200 lives and thousands of wounded, this wave turned into a sweeping “tsunami.” As soon as it calmed down, it strongly resumed as the crisis hit rock bottom, with the lack of all the necessities of life, such as bread, water, petrol, gas, baby formula and medicine.

The situation of “hell” left the people of this country with no choice but to flee... Looking closer into this wave of emigration, one can see that the largest number of “fugitives” are from the elite: the talents and brains that no longer find in Lebanon a fertile ground for their ambitions and dreams.

The flight of human capital mainly affects the medical sector, with hundreds of doctors, nurses and medical staff emigrating in the past two years. All unions agree that they do not have any specific and precise number of those leaving the country, but rely on estimates.

Elie Ghosn, 22, from the northern border town of Andakt, left Lebanon about a month ago to complete his university studies in France after receiving a scholarship for excellence in engineering. He is not thinking of returning to settle in his homeland. Although a few weeks have passed since he left Lebanon, he noticed the huge difference in the lifestyle and the services provided by the state there in exchange for the basic necessities of life lost in his home country.

The ambitious young man is looking forward to obtaining French citizenship. He sees many opportunities in France, “where universities offer not only excellent education, but the development of the human being psychologically, physically and socially, which we lack in most universities in Lebanon.”

Noha Antoun has raised a relatively large family of four children. She loves to be surrounded by her children and grandchildren. But after years of family devotion, she is now deprived of this warmth. Three of her children emigrated in the past few years. The last of them is Aziz, the youngest, who left Lebanon last year. He is a computer engineer who is now working in Amsterdam after many successes in more than one Lebanese institution.

“They left one after the other. Only my eldest son remained… But I very much fear that he would follow the same path,” Noha told Asharq Al-Awsat.

She added: “There is no doubt that we cannot ask them to stay here, for there is no basis for survival ... As for me and their father, we will not leave our house despite all the difficulties, and it will remain a gathering place for them on holidays and occasions.”

A “Systematic theft” Of Brains and Competencies

Perhaps the most dangerous of all of the above is the attempt by foreign institutions to take advantage of the Lebanese tragedy to hunt down the competencies and skilled workforce in all sectors. This was evident with the tendency of more than one institution to persuade doctors, nurses, and medical staff to leave the country, by offering them “attractive packages” as a result of the sharp collapse in the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound against the US dollar.

This trend is not limited to the medical sector. The president of the University of Balamand, Dr. Elias Warrak, goes further, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat about “systematic theft of outstanding students and professors” by “universities and scientific centers abroad that we have been cooperating with for years.”

“What’s sad is that the packages, which were offered to these people years ago, are no longer available. Today, the packages are half that value… they are stealing the Lebanese brains and talents cheaply,” he remarked.

Warrak noted that the latest figures indicate that 75 percent of Lebanese students are waiting for the opportunity to emigrate and between 10 and 15 percent of professors have left the country.

“What we are witnessing is a real massacre... Everything can be compensated for except for brain drain... It seems clear that there is an intention and will for the systematic destruction of the country, and it is no longer permissible for us to remain silent about this dangerous reality,” he underlined.

Upcoming Waves

Professor of Politics and Planning at the American University of Beirut (AUB) and supervisor of the Crisis Monitor, Dr. Nasser Yassin, pointed out that Lebanon had historically exported brains and human capital, but of course not in the current numbers.”

Yassin told Asharq Al-Awsat about three important sectors that are losing their human resources: The health sector, which is witnessing a structural crisis and an inability to continue its normal functioning. Second, the educational sector, which is experiencing major repercussions of the crisis.

According to Yassin, around 200 doctors working at the AUB and the university hospital (AUBMC) have left or took an open-ended leave.

“We expect these numbers to rise with the beginning of the new academic year, as many educational institutions will be forced to close or witness a major downturn,” he said.

The third sector is the banking sector, as a large number of branches were closed and hundreds of employees laid off.

“This sector needs years to be able to rise again,” Yassin noted.

260,000 Passports in 8 Months

The Lebanese General Security recorded a significant increase in the issuance of passports during the first eight months of this year. Available data indicates that the number of passports issued since the beginning of 2021 is about 260,000, compared to about 142,000 passports in the same period last year. That is an increase of 82 percent.

1,500 Medical Doctors Emigrated in Two Years

The head of the Lebanese Doctors Syndicate, Dr. Sharaf Abu Sharaf, points out that there are no accurate numbers of doctors who left the country. He revealed that about 130 doctors from the AUBMC left Lebanon, most of them to the United States, while around 30 percent of the physicians left two other major hospitals – Saint Georges Medical Center and Rizk Hospital.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Abu Sharaf estimated that more than 1,500 doctors emigrated over the past two years, most of whom are specialists with high qualifications. He warned that this number might drastically increase if the crisis persisted.



What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
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What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)

Iran and the United States will hold talks Saturday in Oman, their third round of negotiations over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.

The talks follow a first round held in Muscat, Oman, where the two sides spoke face to face. They then met again in Rome last weekend before this scheduled meeting again in Muscat.

Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the country. He has repeatedly suggested military action against Iran remained a possibility, while emphasizing he still believed a new deal could be reached by writing a letter to Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to jumpstart these talks.

Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own.

Here’s what to know about the letter, Iran’s nuclear program and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 revolution.

Why did Trump write the letter? Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on March 5, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’”

Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Trump’s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang’s atomic bombs and a missile program capable of reaching the continental US.

How did the first round go? Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, hosted the first round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The two men met face to face after indirect talks and immediately agreed to this second round in Rome.

Witkoff later made a television appearance in which he suggested 3.67% enrichment for Iran could be something the countries could agree on. But that’s exactly the terms set by the 2015 nuclear deal struck under US President Barack Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew America.

Witkoff hours later issued a statement underlining something: “A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal.” Araghchi and Iranian officials have latched onto Witkoff’s comments in recent days as a sign that America was sending it mixed signals about the negotiations.

Yet the Rome talks ended up with the two sides agreeing to starting expert-level talks this Saturday. Analysts described that as a positive sign, though much likely remains to be agreed before reaching a tentative deal.

Why does Iran’s nuclear program worry the West? Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s program put its stockpile at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds) as it enriches a fraction of it to 60% purity.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has warned in a televised interview that his country has the capability to build nuclear weapons, but it is not pursuing it and has no problem with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections. However, he said if the US or Israel were to attack Iran over the issue, the country would have no choice but to move toward nuclear weapon development.

“If you make a mistake regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, you will force Iran to take that path, because it must defend itself,” he said.

Why are relations so bad between Iran and the US? Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the Middle East under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. The revolution followed, led by Khomeini, and created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein. The “Tanker War” during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the American military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have see-sawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Middle East that persist today.