Houthis Mobilize Fighters in Sanaa After Heavy Losses in Marib

A Houthi fighter operates a machine gun mounted on a military truck on the outskirts of Sanaa. (File photo: Reuters)
A Houthi fighter operates a machine gun mounted on a military truck on the outskirts of Sanaa. (File photo: Reuters)
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Houthis Mobilize Fighters in Sanaa After Heavy Losses in Marib

A Houthi fighter operates a machine gun mounted on a military truck on the outskirts of Sanaa. (File photo: Reuters)
A Houthi fighter operates a machine gun mounted on a military truck on the outskirts of Sanaa. (File photo: Reuters)

Houthi militias have incurred heavy losses in Marib, prompting the militia leaders to mobilize new fighters to compensate for the shortage on battlefronts.

Military media of the Yemeni army had reported earlier that the Houthi militia lost more than 10,000 men since last January on various fronts, especially in Marib, which the group has been desperate to control to no avail.

Since the beginning of this year, the Yemeni army and the popular resistance have managed to thwart more than 300 Houthi attacks on various fronts.

Well-informed sources in Sanaa told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group's efforts to mobilize recruits were unsuccessful in Sanaa and the tribal areas.

In the past few days, several reports stated that dozens of Houthi recruits left the battlefronts in Marib and al-Jawf after a dispute over financial allocations and low food supplies.

Meanwhile, informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Houthi leader Khaled al-Madani, who is close to the group leader and directly responsible for the local authority in the capital, intensified his movements to mobilize recruits, especially in schools, mosques, and government departments.

Madani held several meetings in various city directorates and neighborhoods, including one with the capital's mayor, Hammoud Abbad, to discuss mobilization efforts.

Houthi's Saba news agency reported that the meeting, which included the group's supervisors in the directorates, touched on the priorities for following up on the mobilization plan and strengthening the steadfastness and cohesion of the home front.

Informed sources had previously told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group's leaders in the tribal, rural districts surrounding Sanaa held several meetings with notables and tribal leaders to urge them to push recruits to Marib.

The Houthi media admitted that several recruitment campaigns had been launched, and extensive meetings were held in the directorates of Sanaa, which discussed mechanisms for strengthening mobilization efforts on the fronts.

Meanwhile, during the latest briefing to the UN Security Council, Assistant Secretary-General at the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, and Peace Operations, Mohamed Khiari, said that no progress had been made in the UN efforts to reach an agreement based on the four-point plan.

The plan includes a nationwide ceasefire, the re-opening of Sanaa airport, the easing of restrictions on the flow of fuel and other commodities through Hodeidah port, and the resumption of face-to-face political negotiations between the Yemeni parties, he said.

Khiari called on all parties to prioritize civilian needs and abstain from weaponizing the economy, particularly in light of the critical humanitarian situation in the country.

The new UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, is scheduled to officially begin his work in the coming few days, and resume the efforts made by his predecessor, Martin Griffiths, to bring peace and persuade the Houthis to end the war.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”