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Ankara Links Idlib Escalation to Putin-Erdogan Summit

A Russian airstrike hits western Aleppo in northern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A Russian airstrike hits western Aleppo in northern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Ankara Links Idlib Escalation to Putin-Erdogan Summit

A Russian airstrike hits western Aleppo in northern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A Russian airstrike hits western Aleppo in northern Syria (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Russian warplanes are intensely pounding Syria’s northwestern Idlib province to add pressure on Ankara ahead of an anticipated meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, according to a senior Turkish official.

By the end of September, a tripartite summit, including Iran, will be held in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi under the Astana process.

Speaking to Hürriyet Daily News under the conditions of anonymity, the senior official said that the “main agenda point is Syria, namely Idlib.” They were referring to planned talks in Sochi.

“The conditions set out in the Idlib agreement have not been fully implemented,” they added.

An agreement signed in March 2020 had followed weeks of fighting that brought Turkey and Russia close to conflict and displaced nearly a million people.

The official added that the intense strikes launched by Russian and Syrian warplanes on targets in Idlib in recent weeks indicate that the calm that has prevailed in the region since the March 2020 agreement had started to change.

Moscow is trying to pressure Turkey through its sudden escalation of airstrikes in Idlib, the official explained.

In an article published by Hürriyet, Turkish writer and analyst Sedat Ergin said that Moscow and Damascus stepping up their airstrikes in Idlib over the last few weeks aims to redirect Turkey’s attention away from developments in Afghanistan.

Ergin warns that Turkey could be looking at a future like that of Afghanistan in Idlib.

“The sudden increase in Russian air attacks in Idlib is possibly aimed at putting pressure on Ankara for other political reasons,” said Ergin, highlighting that the strikes come just a few days away from the anticipated talks in Sochi.

For Ergin, Russia is “trying to reinforce its negotiating position by conducting more strikes ahead of the summit.”

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Arab World

Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal Compared to Swiss Cheese, Full of Gaps

Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
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Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal Compared to Swiss Cheese, Full of Gaps

Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)
Israelis block road in Jerusalem, demanding agreement implementation and hostage release (AFP)

The ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal reached between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday evening is facing a crisis that could prevent it from going forward before it gets Israeli approval or is put into effect.
The agreement is full of gaps, much like Swiss cheese. Despite outlining three phases aimed at bringing the war to a close, it is accompanied by Israeli military actions that continue to claim dozens of lives in Gaza.
Asharq Al-Awsat reviewed the deal’s terms and the different interpretations from both sides.
The first issue comes from the opening of the agreement’s appendix: Practical procedures and mechanisms to implement the agreement for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and the return to a sustainable calm which would achieve a permanent ceasefire between the two sides.
What does “sustainable calm” mean? In Israel, officials say it means Israel has the right to resume fighting after the first phase. Palestinians, however, claim US President-elect Donald Trump’s administration has promised the war won’t restart. Both sides interpret the term differently.
The goal of the agreement is clear: release all Israeli prisoners—alive or dead—captured by Palestinians. In return, Israel will release a “negotiated number” of Palestinian prisoners.
The exchange is set to begin on “Day One,” the day the ceasefire takes effect, but it's still unclear when that will be.
In the first phase (42 days), the agreement calls for “a temporary halt to military operations by both sides and the withdrawal of the Israeli army eastward” from “high-population areas along the Gaza border, including the Gaza Valley.”
Hamas claims the maps provided for this were incomplete.
Even though the agreement mentions “the return of displaced people to their homes and withdrawal from Gaza Valley,” people will have to walk several kilometers and vehicles will be inspected, which could lead to disagreements and clashes.
As for humanitarian aid, the agreement allows for its entry starting on “Day One” (600 trucks daily, including 50 fuel trucks, with 300 heading to northern Gaza).
This includes fuel for the power plant and equipment for debris removal, rehabilitation, and hospital operations.
But the agreement doesn’t clarify how the aid will be distributed or who will control it. Will Hamas continue to oversee it? Will Israel agree? If Hamas takes charge, what happens then? This could lead to further complications.
The criteria for the first phase of the prisoner exchange are clear, but the agreement states that “the prisoner exchange terms for the first phase will not apply to the second phase.”
Hamas wants more Palestinian prisoners released, but Israel rejects this. If disagreements have arisen over clear criteria in the first phase, what will happen when the criteria are more vague?
The agreement sets a deadline of “Day 16” for indirect talks to finalize the conditions for the second phase, particularly regarding the prisoner exchange.
One clause is seen by Israel as not requiring it to carry out the second phase, while Hamas views it as a guarantee to prevent the war from restarting. The clause states: “Qatar, the US, and Egypt will make every effort to ensure continued indirect negotiations until both sides agree on the terms for the second phase.”
However, the phrase “make every effort” does not create a binding legal obligation.
The agreement is full of gaps that could become major problems for both sides. While this doesn’t mean the deal should be dismissed, it shows that many parts of the agreement are fragile and depend on mutual trust and good intentions—both of which are lacking in this region.