Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
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Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)

A “secret” Jordanian document has proposed a new approach to dealing with the Syrian regime. The document puts in place steps that aim to achieve gradual change in behavior by the regime, leading up to the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the war-torn country and recognizing the “legitimate interests” of Russia there.

A senior western official, who read the document, confirmed that it was discussed between Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who tackled it with US President Joe Biden in Washington in July and Russian President Vladimir Putin in August.

The official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Jordan was encouraged to pursue its efforts in Syria after it received support from Washington over the extension of gas pipelines through Syria, Egypt and its own territories to Lebanon. It also received pledges that it will not come under sanctions in line with Caesar Act for working with Damascus.

Russia, meanwhile, exerted efforts to reach the recent settlement in the southern Syrian province of Daraa. The deal made sure that civilians would not seek asylum in Jordan and that Iran would not expand its influence in Daraa. In return, Jordan would reopen the border with Syria and officials would exchange visits to hold military, security and economic talks.

Last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad held talks with his Egyptian, Jordanian and Tunisian counterparts. In contrast, the Syrian opposition practically held no meetings in New York.

On the Arab scene, consensus remains elusive over Damascus’ return to the Arab League. Its membership was suspended in 2012 in wake of the uprising and the regime’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters. Arab countries are hinging Syria’s return on Damascus taking tangible steps in implementing the political solution in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254 and ensuring the withdrawal of foreign militias from its territories.

Multiple failures
The western official said the secret document stemmed from an assessment that the approach towards ending the Syrian conflict that was adopted in the past ten years has been a failure on all levels. As it stands, some 6.7 Syrians have fled their homes, 6.6 million are displaced and 13 million are in need of humanitarian aid and 80 percent of the population lives in poverty.

As for ISIS, it may have been defeated in March 2019, but the terrorist group may still regroup in various Syrian regions, including the desert (Badia) and southeastern region that borders Jordan.

The official revealed that the secret document also addresses Iran’s presence in Syria. It concluded that Tehran “enjoys growing military and economic influence over the regime and different regions in the country, especially the southwest”, where drugs smuggling – a main source of income for its militias – is rampant, posing a threat to the region and beyond.

New approach
Based on the above, the document proposes a new approach that could refocus attention on the political solution in Syria based on resolution 2254 and addressing the humanitarian crisis and its security impact on the country and the region. The approach would adopt a series of accumulative steps that would focus on “combating terrorism and containing Iran’s growing influence” with the ultimate goal being changing the behavior of the regime. In return, Damascus would be offered incentives that would reflect positively on the Syrian people and allow the return of refugees and the displaced, revealed the official.

These ideas align with those proposed by UN envoy Geir Pedersen, who had suggested a “step-for-step” approach towards Syria that would start with an American-Russian understanding that would identify these steps. These steps would then be backed by the region, Arab world and Europe before a mechanism is put in place for the regime to be implemented.

The western official said garnering Russia’s support for the new approach was fundamental, as was recognizing Moscow’s legitimate interests. There are hopes that cooperation could take place with Russia to determine the common points of interest so that efforts can move ahead towards the political solution and implementing resolution 2254.

Roadmap
Among the obstacles hindering the new approach is the division over how the regime would be involved. Another obstacle is the lack of Arab consensus over Syria’s return to the Arab League and lack of progress in the political solution based on resolution 2254. Another hurdle is the US and Europe’s commitment to pressure tools against Damascus: sanctions, isolation and funding the reconstruction. The Caesar Act is yet another obstacle.

To address some of these hurdles, it was suggested that Jordan test the waters with Damascus before expanding contacts with the regime. Experts have therefore, sought to draft an “executive roadmap” over how to achieve the “step-for-step” approach that would cover the abovementioned files and the necessary stance from Damascus over “changing the behavior of the regime”, the peace process, resolution 2254, the Constitutional Committee, Iran’s role and return of refugees.

A top priority at the moment appears the demand for “all non-Syrian forces to withdraw from the contact lines” and then the eventual pullout from the country of all foreign forces that deployed there after 2011. In return, American forces would withdraw from Syria and dismantle the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border, and channels of coordination would be opened between the Syrian army and security forces with their counterparts from neighboring countries to control border security.

The document did not include a timetable for its execution. It also did not include a stance on the Russian military presence in Syria even though it did recognize Moscow’s interests. It also did not address Damascus’ stance that the deployment of Iranian militias was based on its request, noted the western official.



Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
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Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo

As a Wednesday deadline approaches for steeper US tariffs to hit dozens of economies ranging from the EU to India, trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration are coming down to the wire.

The levies taking effect July 9 were announced in April, with the White House citing a lack of "reciprocity" in trade relations. But they were swiftly halted, allowing room for talks.

Days before their reimposition, where do things stand?

EU: 'Ready' for deal

The European Union said it is "ready for a deal" with Washington, with the bloc's trade chief meeting his US counterparts Thursday.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was targeting an "agreement in principle" when it came to the July 9 cutoff, AFP reported.

With no deal, the US tariff on EU goods doubles from the "baseline" of 10 percent to 20 percent -- with Trump previously threatening a 50 percent level.

Vietnam: A pact with uncertainties

Washington and Hanoi unveiled a trade pact Wednesday with much fanfare and few details, but it allowed Vietnam to avoid Trump's initial 46 percent tariff.

Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods face a minimum 20 percent tariff while products made elsewhere face a 40 percent levy -- a clause to restrict "transshipping" by Chinese groups.

But there remain questions on how the higher levy would apply to products using foreign parts.

There is also a risk that Beijing will adopt retaliatory measures, analysts warned.

Japan: Rice, autos at stake

Despite being a close US ally and major source of foreign investment, Japan might not escape Trump's tariff hike.

Tokyo's trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made numerous trips to Washington through the end of June.

But Trump recently criticized what he described as Japan's reluctance to open up further to US rice and auto exports.

"I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said, adding that the country could pay a tariff of "30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine."

India: A good position

Indian manufacturers and exporters want to believe they can avoid a 26 percent tariff.

Negotiations between both countries have been going well for weeks, and Trump himself suggested at the end of June that a "very big" agreement was imminent.

Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said the feedback he received "suggests positive developments." But he maintained that the situation was fluid.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stressed that agriculture and dairy products remain "very big red lines."

South Korea: Muted optimism

Seoul, which is already reeling from US tariffs on steel and autos, wants to avert a sweeping 25 percent levy on its other exports.

Cooperation in shipbuilding could be a bargaining chip, but "at this stage, both sides still haven't clearly defined what exactly they want," said new President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday.

"I can't say with confidence that we'll be able to wrap everything up by July 8," he added.

Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan in the wings

Other Asian economies including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, which faces a 49 percent tariff, wait with bated breath.

Indonesia has indicated willingness to boost energy, agriculture and merchandise imports from the United States. Bangladesh meanwhile is proposing to buy Boeing planes and step up imports of US agriculture products.

Taiwan, for whom Washington is a vital security partner, faces a 32 percent duty without a pact.

Although both sides have faced bumps along the way, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said "negotiators from both sides are working diligently" to find a path forward.

Switzerland: Hope for delay

Switzerland's government said Washington has acknowledged it was acting in good faith, and assumes its tariff level will remain at 10 percent on July 9 while negotiations continue.

But without a decision by the president as of the end of June, Switzerland did not rule out that levies could still rise to a promised 31 percent.