Lebanon Eyes IMF Progress Despite New Turmoil, Says Economy Minister

People gather as taxi cars block a road during a protest against spiraling petrol prices in Beirut, Lebanon, October 21, 2021. (Reuters)
People gather as taxi cars block a road during a protest against spiraling petrol prices in Beirut, Lebanon, October 21, 2021. (Reuters)
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Lebanon Eyes IMF Progress Despite New Turmoil, Says Economy Minister

People gather as taxi cars block a road during a protest against spiraling petrol prices in Beirut, Lebanon, October 21, 2021. (Reuters)
People gather as taxi cars block a road during a protest against spiraling petrol prices in Beirut, Lebanon, October 21, 2021. (Reuters)

Lebanon's new government aims to make progress towards starting full negotiations for an IMF deal by the end of this year or early next, but is not expecting funds to be dispersed before elections in March, a minister said on Friday.

In an interview with Reuters, economy minister Amin Salam also said Lebanon has lost precious time in dealing with the economic meltdown because of a crisis over the probe into the Beirut port explosion which has paralyzed cabinet.

Lebanon is suffering one of the world's sharpest ever economic depressions and an IMF deal is widely seen as the only way for it to secure aid.

Salam said that figures crucial to progress on the IMF track - including Lebanon's estimate of losses in its financial system - would be sent to the Fund as early as next week.

While there was no agreement yet on how the losses should be distributed, "opinions are much closer and the picture is much clearer", he said. He declined to give figures which he said it was up to the finance ministry and central bank to provide.

But he indicated he did not expect the government to clinch a full IMF agreement before parliamentary elections set for March 27, saying no money was expected to be dispersed before the vote, after which a new cabinet would be formed.

IMF talks broke down last year because the banks, central bank and Lebanon's ruling politicians could not agree with the previous government on scale of vast losses, estimated at the time at around $90 billion, and how they should be shared out.

An IMF program is widely seen as the only way Lebanon can unlock desperately needed aid.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati took office in September vowing to remedy one of the world's sharpest ever depressions.

'Huge hopes'
His government was already facing a difficult path to pave the way for an IMF deal before Lebanon slid into yet another crisis, this time linked to the probe into the port blast which has ignited a new political conflict and deadly street violence.

Cabinet has not met since Oct. 12 because of the standoff.

Still, Salam and other officials met the Fund this week as technical talks got underway.

The message delivered by IMF officials was "we want to focus on what went wrong in the first phase and that is defining the losses and giving an idea about their distribution", he said.

The government has "huge hopes" that it can secure an IMF memorandum of understanding, including the figures and financial recovery plan, late this year or early next to open the way to negotiations.

Lebanon hopes to secure at least $2 billion from the IMF in an agreement that would unlock other foreign aid, he said.

But Salam added that while the current government should get as much reform done as possible, sign the MoU and prepare for IMF negotiations, "the IMF is for sure not giving any money before the parliamentary elections."

The crisis over the port explosion investigation has escalated as Hezbollah and its ally Amal have pressed their demand for the removal of the lead investigator, whom they accuse of bias.

The row derailed the last cabinet session.

Mikati has held off convening cabinet sessions pending the outcome of political contacts over the issue, after postponing a session last week out of fear the row would escalate.

"Without a doubt the security events and the circumstances surrounding the port and the probe and Judge Bitar delayed us for two weeks," Salam said.

"Every passing day is valuable," he said.

"We are hoping to be back on schedule by next week."



US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Wall Street stocks retreated early Thursday as worries over US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices while markets digested mixed results from Walmart.

US oil futures rose to a six-month high as Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said no country can deprive the Islamic republic of its right to nuclear enrichment, after US President Donald Trump again hinted at military action following talks in Geneva.

"We'd call this an undercurrent of concern that is bubbling up in oil prices," Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said of the "geopolitical angst."

About 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6 percent at 49,379.46, AFP reported.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 6,849.35, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6 percent to 22,621.38.

Among individual companies, Walmart rose 1.7 percent after reporting solid results but offering forecasts that missed analyst expectations.

Shares of the retail giant initially fell, but pushed higher after Walmart executives talked up artificial intelligence investments on a conference call with analysts.

The US trade deficit in goods expanded to a new record in 2025, government data showed, despite sweeping tariffs that Trump imposed during his first year back in the White House.


Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
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Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo

Gold prices extended gains on Thursday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as lingering tensions between the United States and Iran prompted a flight to safety, while investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,989.09 per ounce by 1227 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery held steady at $5,008.60.

"Geopolitical concerns are front and centre with reports that, if the US were to take military action against Iran, it could go on for several weeks," said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, Reuters reported.

Some progress was made during Iran talks this week in Geneva but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday.

FED LARGELY UNITED

Top US national security advisers met in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were told all US military forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March.

Meanwhile, the Fed's January minutes showed it largely united on holding interest rates steady, but divided over what comes next, with "several" open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while others were inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.

The weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide further clues on the central bank's policy trajectory.

Markets currently expect this year's first interest rate cut to be in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $77.87 per ounce after climbing more than 5% on Wednesday.

Silver is "supported by tight supply and low COMEX stock levels ahead of the delivery period of the March contract. However, given the extent of the historic correction earlier this month, silver is not back on safer ground until it trades back above $86," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Spot platinum fell 0.6% to $2,059.55 per ounce, while palladium lost 1.7% to $1,686.47.


Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
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Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday as the US and Iran attempted to ease a standoff in talks over Tehran's nuclear program while both sides heightened military activity in the key oil-producing region.

Brent futures climbed 23 cents, or 0.3% to $70.58 a barrel by 0735 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to trade at $65.44 a barrel.

Both benchmarks settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, posting their highest settlements since January 30, as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions in the event of ‌a conflict.

"Oil prices are ‌rallying as the market becomes increasingly concerned over the potential ‌for ⁠imminent US action ⁠against Iran," said ING analysts in a Thursday note.

Iranian state media reported the country had shut down the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday, without making clear whether the waterway had fully reopened. About 20% ⁠of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

"Tensions between Washington ‌and Tehran remain high, but the prevailing view ‌is that full-scale armed conflict is unlikely, prompting a wait-and-see approach," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of ‌Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.

"US President Donald Trump does not ‌want a sharp rise in crude prices, and even if military action occurs, it would likely be limited to short-term air strikes," Kikukawa added.

A degree of progress was made during Iran talks in Geneva this week but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday, ‌adding that it expected Tehran to come back with more details in a couple of weeks.

Iran issued a notice to ⁠airmen (NOTAM) that ⁠it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 0330 GMT to 1330 GMT, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration website.

At the same time, the US has deployed warships near Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance saying Washington was weighing whether to continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran or pursue "another option".

Meanwhile, two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended on Wednesday without a breakthrough, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Moscow of stalling US-mediated efforts to end the four-year-old war.

US crude and gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, contrary to expectations in a Reuters poll that crude stocks would rise by 2.1 million barrels in the week to February 13.

Official US oil inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are due on Thursday.