China CO2 Emissions Fall for 1st Time Since COVID Rebound

A coal-burning power plant can be seen behind a factory in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, October 31, 2010. REUTERS/David Gray
A coal-burning power plant can be seen behind a factory in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, October 31, 2010. REUTERS/David Gray
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China CO2 Emissions Fall for 1st Time Since COVID Rebound

A coal-burning power plant can be seen behind a factory in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, October 31, 2010. REUTERS/David Gray
A coal-burning power plant can be seen behind a factory in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, October 31, 2010. REUTERS/David Gray

China's carbon emissions fell in the third quarter for the first time since its economic recovery from the coronavirus began, new research shows, partly as a result of a clampdown on property development and widespread coal shortages.

The world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases saw CO2 emissions drop by around 0.5% in July-September from a year earlier, Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst with the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), said.

"The drop in emissions could mark a turning point and an early peak in China's total emissions, years ahead of its target to peak before 2030," Myllyvirta said in a report published on Carbon Brief on Thursday.

The fall marks a turnaround from an approximately 9% increase in emissions in the first half of 2021, when China's post-COVID-19 economic recovery was in full swing with construction and heavy industrial activity, Reuters said.

The last time China's quarterly emissions fell year-on-year was in January-March 2020, when COVID-19 first hit.

Although researchers had pointed out that China's major industries could reach carbon peaks by around 2024 and called for a cap on total emissions by 2025, its top climate negotiators did not make any more ambitious pledges in the UN talks in Glasgow that ended earlier this month.



IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
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IMF Eyes Revised Global Forecast, but Warns Trade Tensions Still Cloud Outlook

A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.
A hazy view of the skyline in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 14, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Friday that risks related to trade tensions continue to cloud the global economic outlook and uncertainty remains high despite some increased trade and improved financial conditions.

IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the fund would update its global forecast later in July given "front-loading ahead of tariff increases and some trade diversion," along with improved financial conditions and signs of continued declines in inflation.

In April the IMF slashed its growth forecasts for the United States, China and most countries, citing the impact of US tariffs on imports now at 100-year highs and warning that rising trade tensions would further slow growth.

At the time, it cut its forecast for global growth by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% for 2025, and by 0.3 percentage points to 3%. Economists expect a slight upward revision when the IMF releases an updated forecast in late July.

According to Reuters, Gopinath told finance officials from the Group of 20 major economies who met this week in South Africa that trade tensions continued to complicate the economic outlook.

"While we will update our global forecast at the end of July, downside risks continue to dominate the outlook and uncertainty remains high," she said, in a text of her remarks.

She urged countries to resolve trade tensions and implement policy changes to address underlying domestic imbalances, including scaling back fiscal outlays and putting debt on a sustainable path.

Gopinath also underscored the need for monetary policy officials to carefully calibrate their decisions to specific circumstances in their countries, and stressed the need to protect central bank independence. This was a key theme in the G20 communique released by finance officials.

Gopinath said capital flows to emerging markets and developing economies remained sluggish, but resilient, in the face of increased policy uncertainty and market volatility. For many borrowers, financing conditions remained tight.

For countries with unsustainable debt, proactive moves were essential, Gopinath said, repeating the IMF's call for timely and efficient debt restructuring mechanisms.

More work was needed on that issue, including allowing middle-income countries to access the G20's Common Framework for Debt Restructuring, she said.