Russia Sponsors New Round of Talks between Damascus, Kurds

A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
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Russia Sponsors New Round of Talks between Damascus, Kurds

A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)

Russia will sponsor in coming days a new round of dialogue between the Kurds and the Damascus regime.

Just days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with head of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmad.

Envoys of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden have agreed during undisclosed talks in Geneva in recent months over the need to provide American "cover" and Russian "sponsorship" of the Kurdish-Syrian talks.

Deep divide

The Syrians and Kurds had held numerous rounds of dialogue between 2016 to 2019 that revealed the extent of the divide between the two sides.

Damascus refuses to include the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a separate unit in the army and has instead suggested that it be incorporated in the military. It is also demanding that the official national flag be flown throughout the country and recognition of Bashar Assad as Syria's president.

It rejects providing constitutional concessions to the Kurds or recognition of their autonomous administration. It is willing to agree to the local administrations and dedicating lessons to teach Kurdish at schools.

On the strategic resources in the region east of the Euphrates that are held by the Kurds, Damascus wants to have control over them, while agreeing to grant greater revenues from them to the region.

The Kurds are meanwhile hoping Russia will back their demands. Over the summer, the SDC and the People's Will Party signed in Moscow an agreement that Kurdish observers interpreted as recognition of the "unity of Syria and its people" and recognition that the autonomous administration as part of the central regime and that the SDF was part of the national Syrian army.

During a visit to Damascus in September, Lavrov expressed Russia's readiness to continue efforts to prepare the ground for "coexistence" among "all religious and ethnic groups in Syrian society."

He stressed that Russia was not a party in the document that was signed by the SDC and People's Will Party.

The Syrian foreign minister rejected the document, saying Damascus will not support any agreement that violates the Syrian constitution.

Damascus had also rejected a Russian draft of a constitution that stipulates the formation of an "association of regions" that includes the Kurds.

New round

Since the Putin-Biden meeting in June, their envoys to Syria have held three rounds of closed-door talks in Geneva.

Their main goal was to extend the international resolution on cross-border aid deliveries, which was achieved.

However, this platform and others have been used to call for the resumption of dialogue between Damascus and Qamishli.

The US has encouraged the Kurds to resume talks with the regime through Russian "sponsorship".

The new round of talks will focus on operational issues, such as the opening of the Al-Ya'rubiyah crossing under Syrian-Kurdish management, the delivery of humanitarian aid, and military coordination that would deter a new Turkish incursion.

They would also tackle various services and economic agreements.

On the political level, they would address the future of the autonomous administration and its ties with Damascus, the SDF and its role in the army, and the Kurdish national identity.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.