Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell for a third day straight on Wednesday on growing expectations that supply growth will outpace demand growth next year, even though the Omicron coronavirus variant is not seen curbing mobility as sharply as earlier COVID-19 variants.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.05, or 1.5%, to $69.68 a barrel by 0734 GMT, after losing 56 cents in the previous session.

Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $72.79 a barrel, after losing 69 cents on Tuesday.

Brent's prompt monthly spread was unchanged at 7 cents after flipping into contango briefly on Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said a surge in COVID-19 cases with the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil at the same time that crude output is set to increase, especially in the United States, with supply set to exceed demand through at least the end of next year.

In contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) on Monday raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022.

"The IEA's bearish view on the market was in stark contrast to OPEC's more positive view when it released its monthly outlook earlier this week. The divide suggests volatility is likely to remain high in the short term," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.

Energy consultancy FGE said it has a more optimistic outlook than the IEA as the consultancy expects a smaller surplus of 400,000 barrels per day, based on a comparatively lower demand risk from Omicron, against IEA's forecast of 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter.

Also weighing on the market is a firming US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for other countries, Reuters reported. Markets are awaiting the outcome of a key US Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday for signs of when the central bank may raise interest rates.

In another bearish indicator, industry data showed that US crude inventories last week did not decline as much as expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks fell by 815,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 10, according to market sources, compared with a 2.1 million barrel drop that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

However, distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels, compared with analysts' forecasts for an increase of 700,000 barrels, and gasoline stocks rose by 426,000 barrels, which was a smaller build than expected. Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.



Trump Win Ignites Crypto Frenzy that Sends Bitcoin to Record High

Trump Win Ignites Crypto Frenzy that Sends Bitcoin to Record High
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Trump Win Ignites Crypto Frenzy that Sends Bitcoin to Record High

Trump Win Ignites Crypto Frenzy that Sends Bitcoin to Record High

The price of bitcoin hit a new high Wednesday and crypto-related shares rallied as investors bet that former President Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election will be a boon for cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin jumped nearly 8% in early trading, climbing above $75,000 and smashing its previous record set in March. Other cryptocurrencies also soared, including ether, the world's second most popular cryptocurrency after bitcoin, which rallied 8%.

Another token, dogecoin, rocketed as much as 18%. It's the favorite cryptocurrency of billionaire Elon Musk, one of Trump's most prominent supporters, The AP reported.

Crypto-related shares outran the rest of the stock market. Coinbase, one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges, leaped 17%. Online brokerage Robinhood Markets, which offers crypto trading, soared 12% and MicroStrategy, which says it is the “largest corporate holder of bitcoin,” jumped 10%.

Trump was previously a crypto skeptic but changed his mind and embraced cryptocurrencies ahead of the election.

He has pledged to make America "the crypto capital of the planet" and create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. His campaign accepted donations in cryptocurrency and he courted crypto fans at a bitcoin conference in July. He also launched World Liberty Financial, a new venture with family members to trade cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is up 77% this year.

“Bitcoin is the one asset that was always going to soar if Trump returned to the White House," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, a British online investment platform. After touching its new high, the market is now speculating about “when, not if, it will smash through $100,000," he said.

“Trump has already declared his love of the digital currency and crypto traders now have a new narrative by which to get even more excited about where the price could go,” Mould said.

But other experts warned of the risks.

“Investors should only dabble in crypto with money that they can be prepared to lose,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Because we’ve seen these wild swings in the past.”

Crypto industry players welcomed Trump's victory, in hopes that he would be able to push through legislative and regulatory changes that they've long lobbied for.

Trump had already promised that, if elected, he would remove the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, who has been leading the US government’s crackdown on the crypto industry.

“Tonight the crypto voter has spoken decisively — across party lines and in key races across the country,” said Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong . “Americans disproportionately care about crypto and want clear rules of the road for digital assets. We look forward to working with the new Congress to deliver it,” Armstrong posted on X.

Streeter said Trump's administration would most likely pursue “light touch regulation” for the crypto industry.

“Certainly that’s what crypto fans would want," she said. “They want the sheen of legitimacy to be brought to crypto, but they don’t want regulations to be too onerous to stop opportunities and innovation.”