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Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Slides Almost 8% After Intervention-Driven Surge

A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)
A money changer counts Turkish lira banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey September 27, 2021. (Reuters)

The lira tumbled almost 8% against the dollar on Monday amid persisting investor concern over Turkey's monetary policy, having surged more than 50% last week after billions of dollars of state-backed market interventions.

The lira was also supported last week by a government move to cover FX losses on certain deposits.

It weakened to as low as 11.6 against the greenback on Monday before trimming losses to trade at 11.35 by 0800 GMT.

"The main exchange rate resistance is at 11.45 and 12.0, with support levels of 10.57 and 10.25," QNB Invest said in a daily bulletin.

Last week's rally brought the Turkish currency back to mid-November levels.

Last Monday, it had plunged to an all-time low of 18.4 per dollar, after a months-long slide due to fears of spiraling inflation driven by a succession of interest rate cuts engineered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

At current levels the currency is still 35% weaker than at the end of last year.

Erdogan unveiled late last Monday a scheme under which the Treasury and central bank would reimburse losses on converted lira deposits against foreign currencies, sparking the lira's biggest intra-day rally.

Turks did not sell dollars in large quantities on Monday and Tuesday of last week, according to official data that suggested they had played little role in the gains. State interventions, meanwhile, cost the central bank more than $8 billion last week, according to traders' calculations.

The central bank sold $1.35 billion in direct forex interventions on Dec. 2-3 to support the lira when it stood around 13.5 per dollar, according to data.

In an interview with broadcaster AHaber, Erdogan said Turks showed confidence in the local currency and deposits increased by 23.8 billion lira after the anti-dollarization plan announcement.

But data from the BDDK banking watchdog showed that after heavy accumulation of dollars the previous week, Turkish individual depositors held $163.7 billion of hard currencies last Tuesday, virtually unchanged from Monday and Friday, when the total was $163.8 billion.

The lira got a big boost last week from what traders and economists called backdoor dollar sales by state banks, supported by the central bank.

Under pressure from Erdogan, the central bank has slashed its policy rates by 500 basis points to 14% since September, despite inflation that has risen to more than 21%. Price rises are set to exceed 30% next year in part due to the lira depreciation, economists predict.

The main BIST 100 stock index in Istanbul rose 2.6% on Monday morning.

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Business

China to Boost Exports, Imports in 2026, Seeking ‘Sustainable’ Trade, Official Says

A woman walks in Ritan park one day after a heavy snowfall in Beijing on December 13, 2025. (AFP)
A woman walks in Ritan park one day after a heavy snowfall in Beijing on December 13, 2025. (AFP)
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China to Boost Exports, Imports in 2026, Seeking ‘Sustainable’ Trade, Official Says

A woman walks in Ritan park one day after a heavy snowfall in Beijing on December 13, 2025. (AFP)
A woman walks in Ritan park one day after a heavy snowfall in Beijing on December 13, 2025. (AFP)

China plans to expand exports and imports next year as part of efforts to promote "sustainable" trade, a senior economic official said on Saturday, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

The trillion-dollar trade surplus posted by the world's second-largest economy is stirring tensions with Beijing's trade partners and drawing criticism from the International Monetary Fund and other observers who say its production-focused economic growth model is unsustainable.

"We must adhere to opening up, promote win-win cooperation across multiple sectors, expand exports while also increasing imports to drive sustainable development of foreign trade," Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, told an economic conference.

China will encourage service exports in 2026, Han said, pledging measures to boost household incomes, raise basic pensions and remove "unreasonable" restrictions in the consumption sector.

He restated the government's call to rein in deflationary price wars, dubbed "involution", where firms engage in excessive, low-return rivalry that erodes profits.

The IMF this week urged Beijing to make the "brave choice" to curb exports and boost consumer demand.

"China is simply too big to generate much (more) growth from exports, and continuing to depend on export-led growth risks furthering global trade tensions," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told a press conference on Wednesday.

Economists warn that the entrenched imbalance between production and consumption in the Chinese economy threatens its long-term growth for the sake of maintaining a high short-term pace.

Chinese leaders promised on Thursday to keep a "proactive" fiscal policy next year to spur both consumption and investment, with analysts expecting Beijing to target growth of around 5%.

Business

UK Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in October

People exit the London Underground station at Bank, outside the Bank of England (L) and the Royal Exchange building (back R) in central London on December 12, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
People exit the London Underground station at Bank, outside the Bank of England (L) and the Royal Exchange building (back R) in central London on December 12, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
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UK Economy Unexpectedly Shrinks in October

People exit the London Underground station at Bank, outside the Bank of England (L) and the Royal Exchange building (back R) in central London on December 12, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)
People exit the London Underground station at Bank, outside the Bank of England (L) and the Royal Exchange building (back R) in central London on December 12, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP)

Britain's economy unexpectedly contracted again in October, official data showed Friday, dealing a blow to the Labour government's hopes of reviving economic growth.

Gross domestic product fell 0.1 percent in October following a contraction of 0.1 percent in September, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.

Analysts had forecast growth of 0.1 percent.

Manufacturing rebounded in the month as carmaker Jaguar Land Rover resumed operations after a cyberattack that had weighed on the UK economy in September, AFP reported.

But analysts noted that businesses and consumers reined in spending ahead of Britain's highly-expected annual budget.

"Business and consumers were braced for tax hikes and the endless speculation and leaks have once again put a brake on the UK economy," said Lindsay James, investment manager at Quilter.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour party raised taxes in last month's budget to slash state debt and fund public services.

At the same time, Britain's economic growth was downgraded from next year until the end of 2029, according to data released alongside the budget.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves raised taxes on businesses in her inaugural budget last year -- a decision widely blamed for causing weak UK economic growth and rising unemployment.

She returned in November with fresh hikes, this time hitting workers.
Analysts said that Friday's data strengthened expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates next week.

Business

Gold Hits Seven-week High on Safe-haven Demand; Silver Notches Peak

FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith works on a gold necklace at a workshop in Ahmedabad, India, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith works on a gold necklace at a workshop in Ahmedabad, India, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
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Gold Hits Seven-week High on Safe-haven Demand; Silver Notches Peak

FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith works on a gold necklace at a workshop in Ahmedabad, India, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A goldsmith works on a gold necklace at a workshop in Ahmedabad, India, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo

Gold prices rose to a seven-week high on Friday, bolstered by a soft dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand prompted by geopolitical turbulence, while silver hit a record high.

Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,311.73 per ounce by 0945 GMT, its highest level since October 21, and set for a 2.7% weekly gain, Reuters reported.

US gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,343.50.

The dollar hovered near a two-month low, and was on track for a third straight weekly drop, making bullion more affordable for overseas buyers.

Additionally, "the sharp rise in US weekly jobless claims as well as US-Venezuela tensions are underpinning gold and keeping haven demand strong," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

US jobless claims rose by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week, reversing the sharp drop seen in the previous week.

The US Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year on Wednesday, but indicated caution on additional cuts.

Investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year, and next week's US non-farm payrolls report could provide further clues on the Fed's future policy path.

Non-yielding assets such as gold tend to benefit in low-interest-rate environment.

On the geopolitical front, the US is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week.

Meanwhile, India saw widening gold discounts this week as demand remained subdued despite the wedding season, while high spot prices also dented demand in China.

Spot silver rose 0.5% to $63.87 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $64.32/oz, and is headed for a 9.5% weekly gain.

Prices have more than doubled this year, supported by strong industrial demand, dwindling inventories and its inclusion on the US critical minerals list.

"Silver is supported by industrial demand amid fears of shortages, a continued tight market, and the speculative frenzy, mostly from retail investors which has helped drive inflows to Silver ETFs," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Elsewhere, platinum was up 0.8% at $1,708.11, while palladium climbed 2.2% to $1,516.95. Both were headed for a weekly rise.