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GCC Index Records Biggest Gain since 2008

The GCC equity market index closed in 2021 with 34.9% gains, marking the biggest gains since 2008. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The GCC equity market index closed in 2021 with 34.9% gains, marking the biggest gains since 2008. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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GCC Index Records Biggest Gain since 2008

The GCC equity market index closed in 2021 with 34.9% gains, marking the biggest gains since 2008. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The GCC equity market index closed in 2021 with 34.9% gains, marking the biggest gains since 2008. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) equity market index closed in 2021 with 34.9% gains, marking the biggest gains since 2008, according to a report by Kuwait-based Kamco Invest.

The aggregate MSCI GCC Index witnessed gains for 12 consecutive months until November 2021, when in declined by 3.4%. However, gains during December partially offset the trimmed yearly gains.

The report indicated that Abu Dhabi was the best performing market amongst prominent equity markets globally with a gain of 68.2%.

Saudi Arabia was next in the region with a healthy gain of 29.8%, closely followed by Dubai and Kuwaiti benchmarks with gains of 28.2% and 27%, respectively.

GCC equity markets outperformed its global peers with a yearly return of 34.9% in 2021 for the MSCI GCC Index.

The index recovered fully from the COVID-19 and oil-led decline of 3.7% in 2020.

Global markets had an equally exciting year with the MSCI World Index touching a record high on December 29, but declines during the last two trading sessions of the year partially trimmed the third consecutive year of gains that reached 20.1%.

Gains for both Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) were driven by listing of several state-owned firms amid a climate of economic optimism, large scale projects and timely execution of plans.

Several new initiatives were taken in the GCC that mainly aimed at diversifying non-oil state revenues, while making sure that their market share in the oil market remains robust by way of adding capacity.

The sector performance chart for the year showed gains mainly for the financial services sector with Diversified Financials topping the chart with a return of 62.2%, followed by Banks with a gain of 48.8%. Capital Goods index was next with a gain of 45.4%, followed by Materials and Healthcare with gains of 30.6% and 27.7%, respectively.

In terms of share of total trading activity, Abu Dhabi reported the steepest increase in trading activity with five-fold growth in value traded increasing from $19.3 billion in 2020 to $96.22 billion in 2021, resulting a share of 12.2% versus 2.9% in 2020.

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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
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Expert: Türkiye Anti-inflation Steps Don’t Go Far Enough

People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters
People shop at a bazaar in Istanbul. Reuters

Although Turkish inflation slowed in September, it is still raging out of control with the government avoiding difficult decisions that could help tackle it, experts told AFP.

Türkiye has experienced spiraling inflation the past two years, peaking at an annual rate of 85.5 percent in October 2022 and 75.45 percent in May.

The government claims it slowed to 49.4 percent in September.

But the figures are disputed by the ENAG group of independent economists who estimate that year-on-year inflation stood at 88.6 percent in September.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek has said Ankara was hoping to bring inflation down to 17.6 percent by the end of 2025 and to “single digits” by 2026.

And President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently hailed Türkiye’s success in “starting the process of permanent disinflation.”

“The hard times are behind us,” he said.

But economists interviewed by AFP said the surge in consumer prices in Türkiye had become “chronic” and is being exacerbated by some government policies.

“The current drop is simply due to a base effect. The price rises over the course of a month is still high, at 2.97 percent across Türkiye and 3.9 percent in Istanbul.

“You can’t call this a success story,” said Mehmet Sisman, economics professor at Istanbul’s Marmara University.

Spurning conventional economic practice of raising interest rates to curb inflation, Erdogan has long defended a policy of lowering rates. That has sent the lira sliding, further fueling inflation.

But after his reelection in May 2023, he gave Türkiye’s Central Bank free rein to raise its main interest rate from 8.5 to 50 percent between June 2023 and March 2024.

The central bank’s rate remained unchanged in September for the sixth consecutive month.

“The fight against inflation revolves around the priorities of the financial sector. As a result, it is done indirectly and generates uncertainty,” explained Erinc Yeldan, economics professor at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.

But raising interest rates alone is not enough to steady inflation without addressing massive budget deficits, according to Yakup Kucukkale, an economics professor at Karadeniz Technical University.

He pointed to Türkiye’s record budget deficit of 129.6 billion lira (3.45 billion euros).

“Simsek says this is due to expenditure linked to the reconstruction in regions hit by the February 2023 earthquake,” he said of the disaster that killed more than 53,000 people.

“But the real black hole is due to the costly public-private partnership contracts,” he said, referring to infrastructure contracts which critics say are often awarded to firms close to Erdogan’s government.

Such contracts cover construction and management of everything from motorways and bridges to hospitals and airports, and are often accompanied by generous guarantees such as state compensation in the event they are underused.

“We should question these contracts, which are a burden on the budget because this compensation is indexed to the dollar or the euro,” said Kucukkale.

Anti-inflation measures also tend to impact low-income households at a time when the minimum wage hasn’t been raised since January, he said.

“But these people already have little purchasing power. To lower demand, such measures must target higher-income groups, but there is hardly anything affecting them,” he said.