One Killed in Sudan Protests Ahead of UN Dialogue Launch

Sudanese protesters raise national flags as they protest against the October 2021 military coup, in the capital Khartoum, on January 9, 2022. (AFP)
Sudanese protesters raise national flags as they protest against the October 2021 military coup, in the capital Khartoum, on January 9, 2022. (AFP)
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One Killed in Sudan Protests Ahead of UN Dialogue Launch

Sudanese protesters raise national flags as they protest against the October 2021 military coup, in the capital Khartoum, on January 9, 2022. (AFP)
Sudanese protesters raise national flags as they protest against the October 2021 military coup, in the capital Khartoum, on January 9, 2022. (AFP)

One Sudanese protester was killed Sunday as security forces fired tear gas at thousands who rallied to keep up pressure on the military, one day before the UN is to launch talks aiming to end weeks of crisis after a coup.

The October 25 power grab, led by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, derailed a civilian-military power sharing transition established after the 2019 ouster of longtime president Omar al-Bashir.

It also sparked regular protests -- sometimes by tens of thousands -- by Sudanese wanting a return to the democratic transition in a country with a long history of coups.

The latest fatality brings to 62 the death toll of protesters killed in a crackdown on anti-coup demonstrations, the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors said in a statement.

They said the 26-year-old protester killed was "hit by a canister of tear gas to the neck" fired by security forces.

He died a day before the United Nations is to hold a press conference launching a dialogue among "all key civilian and military stakeholders" to find a path forward "towards democracy and peace," UN special envoy Volker Perthes said.

Earlier on Sunday, a teenager died from "live bullet" wounds to the neck sustained during protests on Thursday, according to medics.

Pro-democracy demonstrators on Sunday had again marched towards the presidential palace in central Khartoum and also rallied in North Khartoum, witnesses said.

"No, no to military rule," they chanted, waving the national flag.

Main streets around the capital were sealed off in a bid to prevent people converging there and at army headquarters, which was the epicenter of the mass demonstrations that forced Bashir out.

Protesters also rallied in Omdurman, Khartoum's twin city across the Nile, and Wad Madani to the south, witnesses said.

"We will not accept less than a full civilian government," said 27-year-old protester Ammar Hamed in Khartoum.

Authorities have repeatedly denied using live ammunition in confronting protesters and insist scores of security forces have been wounded during demonstrations that have often "deviated from peacefulness".

Protests had calmed as night fell.

Medics condemn hospital raids

Medics in white coats joined Sunday's rallies to protest the security forces' storming of hospitals and other medical facilities during previous demonstrations.

The Central Committee of Sudan Doctors, affiliated with the protest movement, said on Saturday that medics would deliver a memorandum to UN officials listing "assaults" against such facilities.

Last week, Sudan's civilian prime minister Abdalla Hamdok resigned saying the country was at a "dangerous crossroads threatening its very survival". He had only resumed his position on November 21, after being ousted along with his government in the coup.

Analysts said his departure left the military in full control and threatened a return to Bashir-era repression.

"It is time to end the violence and enter into a constructive process," Perthes said on Saturday in announcing the talks.

Last week United States, Britain, Norway and the European Union had warned Sudan could plunge into conflict and called for "an immediate, Sudanese-led and internationally facilitated dialogue".

But the Forces for Freedom and Change, the civilian alliance which spearheaded protests against Bashir and became integral to the transitional government, said it had not received "any details" about the UN initiative.

On Sunday, the Sudanese Professionals Association, also instrumental in the anti-Bashir protests, said it completely "rejected" the UN-facilitated talks.

"The way to resolve the Sudanese crisis begins with the complete overthrow of the putschist military council and the handover of its members to face justice over the killings committed against the defenseless (and) peaceful Sudanese people," the SPA said in a statement.

Burhan has insisted that the military takeover "was not a coup" but only meant to "rectify the course of the Sudanese transition".

The UN Security Council is to meet on Wednesday to discuss developments in Sudan.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”