Iraq Shiite Divide Makes Forging Government Tough Task

Iraqi lawmakers attend the inaugural session of parliament -- analysts warn there are still several hard steps ahead before the formation of a new government - IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE/AFP/File
Iraqi lawmakers attend the inaugural session of parliament -- analysts warn there are still several hard steps ahead before the formation of a new government - IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE/AFP/File
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Iraq Shiite Divide Makes Forging Government Tough Task

Iraqi lawmakers attend the inaugural session of parliament -- analysts warn there are still several hard steps ahead before the formation of a new government - IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE/AFP/File
Iraqi lawmakers attend the inaugural session of parliament -- analysts warn there are still several hard steps ahead before the formation of a new government - IRAQI PRIME MINISTER'S PRESS OFFICE/AFP/File

Three tense months after legislative elections, Iraq's parliament has finally held its inaugural session -- but opening debates swiftly descended into furious arguments between Shiite factions.

In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations ever since the 2003 US-led invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, reported AFP.

Parliament only met for the first time since the October 10 vote on Sunday, after Iraq's top court rejected a complaint of electoral irregularities filed by the Shiite and pro-Iran Hashed al-Shaabi, a former paramilitary alliance.

Political analysts warn there are still several hard steps ahead before the formation of a new government.

Iraq is trying to emerge from almost two decades of conflict but is mired in corruption, economic crisis, and with threats of violence lingering.

- What sparked anger at opening?
The newly-elected members of parliament met for a swearing-in ceremony and to elect their speaker, but debate soon turned ugly.

Videos filmed by MPs showing lawmakers becoming verbally aggressive with each other, highlighting divisions between Shiite groupings.

Iraq's post-election period has been marred by high tensions, violence and allegations of vote fraud.

One of parliament's first tasks must be to elect the country's president, who will then name a prime minister tasked with forming a new government.

Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who once led an anti-US militia and who opposes all foreign interference, has repeatedly said that the next prime minister will be chosen by his movement.

It won the largest share with 73 out of the assembly's 329 seats, more than a fifth of the total.

But the Coordination Framework, including pro-Iran groups such as the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political arm of the pro-Tehran Hashed al-Shaabi, insist their coalition is bigger.

The Coordination Framework claimed they can muster the backing of 88 lawmakers to make them the largest bloc.

That prompted fury from Sadr's movement. In the ensuing chaos, MP Mahmud al-Mashhadani, the oldest member of parliament who was therefore chairing the opening session, was taken ill.

One lawmaker alleged Mashhadani was "attacked", state media said he fainted, and he was rushed to hospital where he was reportedly in a stable condition.

When the parliamentary session resumed an hour later, lawmakers re-elected as speaker influential Sunni MP Mohammed al-Halbussi of the Taqadom party.

Coordination Framework MPs boycotted the vote.

- Who will be the next PM?
No single party holds an outright majority, so the next leader will be voted in by whichever coalition can negotiate allies to become the biggest bloc.

In previous parliaments, parties from Iraq's Shiite majority have struck compromise deals to work together and form a government.

But Sadr has hinted he prefers an alliance with Sunni groups including Taqadom as well as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

"In theory, they could push through and have their president elected and their prime minister designated," said political scientist Hamza Haddad.

One leader in the Shiite Coordination Framework, speaking on condition of anonymity, admitted that if Sadr presses ahead with a coalition including Sunni parties and the KDP, they will be able to choose the government.

However, if Sadr works with Shiite parties as in past parliaments, then the Coordination Framework "will have the upper hand", the leader added.

If the Coordination Framework had a choice, a leading contender would be ex-prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, a figure close to Iran whose own group won 33 seats.

Maliki would be unthinkable for Sadrists.

They, however, have not put forward any name to replace current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi, who has not clearly said whether he wants to remain in power.

Khademi, a former intelligence chief, is Shiite like all his predecessors. He was confirmed in the last parliament by a coalition of Shiite-majority lawmakers.

- What are the risks of conflict? -
"As long as the two Shiite sides remain divided, that could lead to more violence," the political analyst Haddad said.

There has already been unrest following the election.

Kadhemi escaped unhurt when an explosive-packed drone hit the prime minister's residence in November during what his office called an "assassination attempt."

No group has claimed the attack.

"It is difficult to see either side quietly allowing the other to lead a government formation without the other," Haddad added, noting that both Sadr and the Conquest Alliance have armed backers.

"The biggest fear would be fighting," he said.



Iraqi President to Asharq Al-Awsat: Iran’s Influence Is Exaggerated, Factions Are Under Control

Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid in Davos. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid in Davos. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Iraqi President to Asharq Al-Awsat: Iran’s Influence Is Exaggerated, Factions Are Under Control

Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid in Davos. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid in Davos. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid described as “positive” US President Donald Trump’s commitment to peace, saying it was a step forward “in resolving conflicts in the world and Middle East.”

Al-Rashid sat down for an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos to discuss the Iran’s “very exaggerated” impact on the armed factions in Iraq, the developments in Syria and the need for the international community to find radical solutions to detention camps in Iraq that are holding terrorists from different nationalities.

Trump’s return

Rashid welcomed Trump’ reelection as president, saying Iraq enjoys “good ties with the US.”

“We thank the Americans for standing by our side in fighting the ISIS terrorist group. Their forces are still deployed in Iraq,” he went on to say.

Rashid, who had sent a message of congratulations to Trump on his return to office, said the latter has repeatedly said that he wanted to help in ending wars in the region and the world and for security and peace to prevail across the globe.

“This is a positive step for everyone,” he remarked.

On the Iraqi army’s readiness in facing terrorist threats after the US troop withdrawal in 2026, Rashid said the threats in his country had dropped.

“Iraq is now free of terrorist activity. Some ISIS pockets and other terrorist elements remain, but this is the case in nearly all countries in the world,” he explained.

As for the American troops, he said they remain in Iraq in line with bilateral agreements, the request of the Iraqi government and in coordination and consultation with political forces that are the foundations of parliament.

The forces take part in the formation of the executive authority and in choosing a president and members of parliament, he continued.

‘Exaggerated’ Iranian influence

Turning to Iran, Rashid said that talk of Iran’s influence on the Iraqi armed factions is “very exaggerated.”

“These factions are under the control of the Iraqi government. With the war on Gaza over, I believe the factions realized that there is no need to turn to their weapons or join the fight, especially now that the ceasefire has taken effect,” he added.

“The government now wants to impose its control over the armed factions according to measures and mechanisms that are being devised by the relevant authorities with the goal of putting an end to any combat activity,” he revealed.

On Iran, he described it as an “important country.”

“We enjoy good ties with it, but we are the ones who decide things in Iraq. We are not under the control of any country,” Rashid stressed.

“This is the culmination of a long struggle that was led by the Iraqi people. We fought against dictatorship for a long time, perhaps more than any other country in the region. We have also long suffered from terrorism. Before that, we suffered from the economic siege,” he stated.

“Today, however, security and stability have been restored to Iraq. We are not only trying to improve our relations with our neighbors, but we are also strengthening them. We are also trying to bridge gaps between countries in the region to serve the interests of all parties,” he continued.

“We live in a historic region. It boasts more resources than any other region in neighboring countries, so we must take advantage of what we have been blessed with. We must enjoy peace and security and concern ourselves in resolving problems of neighboring countries,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Iraqi President Abdullatif al-Rashid speaks to Asharq Al-Awsat from Davos. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Security concerns

Rashid confirmed that Iraq has security concerns over the developments in neighboring Syria.

Before elaborating on what they are, Rashid recalled Iraq’s attempts to support stability in Syria.

“We tried several times during Bashar al-Assad's time in power to help in coming up with solutions to reach a settlement in Syria. Syria is important to the Middle East and it shares borders with several regional countries,” he noted.

“Bashar’s regime, unfortunately, did not invest in our efforts,” he lamented. “We had backed Syria’s return to the Arab League and tried to bridge differences between the regime and various factions.”

Rashid reminded that Iraq never severed its ties with Syria and continued to support it. “This does not mean, however, that we approved of the regime’s actions and the Syrian government’s behavior. On the contrary, we constantly criticized the regime and encouraged it to improve the situation in Syria.”

Today, “we wish the new Syrian administration success in improving the situation, but the scene isn’t very clear at the moment,” he said, while welcoming the positive statements made by leader of the transitional authority Ahmed al-Sharaa about his determination to improve the situation in Syria.

On the security level, Rashid said Iraq and Syria share a long border, “and the reality is that several terrorist groups are active there. This worries us.”

“The international community must work on finding radical solutions to the crisis of terrorists from different nationalities who are held in detention camps,” he urged.

Water crisis

The persistent water crisis in Iraq has deepened in recent years, impacting its economy and food security.

Rashid acknowledged the crisis, noting that solutions to it are also available. “They can be easily implemented if there was a real and serious desire to do so,” he said, while referring to two main factors that can move them forward.

The first, Rashid said, is the behavior of neighboring countries. Iraq heavily depends on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, whose sources are both located outside the country. The majority are located in Türkiye, while some tributaries are in Iran.

“Iran and Türkiye's cooperation is very necessary and important” in resolving this issue, the president explained.

“Historically, there were never dams or artificial barriers on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers in Türkiye. Today, several dams have been built on the rivers, which has been denying us water. This is one of the main reasons for the water problem in Iraq,” he said.

As for Iran, “we are consulting with it over the water issue and working together to resolve this problem,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, revealing that Iranian officials are “receptive” to Baghdad's demands and stressing that Iraq “has not taken its fair share of the water.”

He hoped the water crisis would be resolved through peaceful means and understanding, not armed conflicts.

The second factor, said Rashid, is climate. “This is something we cannot control. We need to take advantage of the rainfall to help in agriculture and raising cattle,” he added. He also underlined the importance of storing groundwater.

The president acknowledged that Iraq is not adopting modern irrigation methods given the lack of good internal management of the water file.