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AFRICOM: Al-Qaeda, ISIS Unity Efforts Threaten Lake Chad Basin

AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
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AFRICOM: Al-Qaeda, ISIS Unity Efforts Threaten Lake Chad Basin

AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)
AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend shaking hands with the head of the Libyan unity government, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, and next to them, Ambassador Richard Norland (US Embassy in Libya)

Last year, the US withdrawal from wars in Somalia and Afghanistan turned attention to other theaters of conflicts around the world to see if they, in turn, would witness similar US regression. Such a scenario poses risks threatening the fall of regimes and the growth of the influence of extremist movements.

The withdrawal of US forces from Somalia in early 2021 prompted an escalation of attacks by Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s branch of in the Horn of Africa. The attacks were met by Somali government forces weakened by inner conflict.

In Afghanistan, the picture was clearer and more decisive.

Shortly after the US pulled out in August, the Kabul government fell and was replaced by the Taliban.

Such a scenario can be repeated in other areas from which the Americans decide to withdraw, especially in the African continent, where many countries are witnessing political conflicts and civil wars.

To date, the US remains engaged through its military command in Africa (AFRICOM) as part of Washington’s efforts to counter Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Sahel countries.

Americans have also warned Africans of the “risks” of using mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group, which are now widespread in many African countries, including Mali and Libya.

The US relationship with Sudan, which witnessed remarkable heat during 2020, seems to have turned cold considering the conflict between the military and civil components of the Sudanese government.

In 2021, Tunisia was a focus of US military activity in North Africa.

France has led efforts to confront militants in Mali since 2012, but it has failed in eliminating them despite the support it receives from several countries led by the US.

AFRICOM Spokeswoman told Asharq Al-Awsat that they are aware of reports that Mali may have hired the services of a Russian-backed special military group known as the Wagner Group.

"If we take into account the record of (the Wagner Group), it is clear that any role played by the forces of this group supported by Russia will most likely worsen the delicate and unstable conditions in Mali, and complicate the international response aimed at supporting the transitional government,” she explained.

The US Department of Defense suspended security cooperation and military training for the Malian armed forces following the August 2020 coup.

She noted that they work to encourage the restoration of security and safety for the Malian people and to encourage a successful transition towards legitimate and constitutional governance in Mali.

ISIS and Al-Qaeda have suffered two strong losses in Nigeria during the past year.

Abubakar Shekau, leader of the Boko Haram group, loyal to Al-Qaeda, was killed in May. He blew himself up after his ISIS rivals surrounded him.

However, ISIS did not benefit much from this setback for its opponents as its leader Abu Musab al-Barnawi was also killed later in October.

It is not entirely clear how relations will manifest in the future between these two competing terror organizations and whether the conflict between them will continue. There is a possibility that they will unite their ranks against the Nigerian government.

AFRICOM is aware of the reported death of the two leaders, Shekau and al-Barnawi.

“As troubling as it may be, it is difficult to predict how these two groups will bring their fighters and capabilities together into a more coherent terrorist effort,” warned the command’s spokeswoman.

She explained that a united effort by these two groups could dramatically destabilize the Lake Chad Basin region if there is no substantive and coordinated multinational intervention.

The developing situation in the eastern Sahel region, in addition to the continued expansion of the al-Qaeda affiliate, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, towards the western and central Sahel region, should be a cause for increasing international concern.

According to the spokeswoman, no country alone can solve the problems associated with terrorism.

“We continue to monitor the situation and continue to support our African and international partners who are fighting on the frontlines against violent extremism.”

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Features

Bedouin Face Eviction as Israeli Settlement Spreads Near Jerusalem

A Palestinian Bedouin walks up a hill, as the communities of Jabal Al-Baba faces displacement due to plans to build a new Israeli settlement near the E1 road, in Jabal Al-Baba in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ammar Awad
A Palestinian Bedouin walks up a hill, as the communities of Jabal Al-Baba faces displacement due to plans to build a new Israeli settlement near the E1 road, in Jabal Al-Baba in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ammar Awad
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Bedouin Face Eviction as Israeli Settlement Spreads Near Jerusalem

A Palestinian Bedouin walks up a hill, as the communities of Jabal Al-Baba faces displacement due to plans to build a new Israeli settlement near the E1 road, in Jabal Al-Baba in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ammar Awad
A Palestinian Bedouin walks up a hill, as the communities of Jabal Al-Baba faces displacement due to plans to build a new Israeli settlement near the E1 road, in Jabal Al-Baba in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ammar Awad

The land available to Atallah al-Jahalin’s Bedouin community for grazing livestock near Jerusalem has steadily shrunk, as expanding Jewish settlements on Israeli-occupied territory encircle the city and push deeper into the West Bank.

Now, the group of some 80 families faces eviction from the last patches of valley and scrubland they have called home for decades.

Their predicament is tied to an Israeli settlement project that would slice through the West Bank, sever its connection to East Jerusalem, and -- according to Israeli officials -- "bury" any remaining hope of a future Palestinian state.

As more Western powers move to recognise a Palestinian state amid frustration over the war in Gaza, Palestinians around Jerusalem say they are watching their land vanish under the advance of Israeli cranes and bulldozers. Settlements now form an almost unbroken ring around the city, Reuters reported.

“Where else could I go? There is nothing,” said Jahalin, seated beneath a towering cedar tree near Maale Adumim, a settlement that has already grown into a Jewish suburb of Jerusalem on Israeli-occupied Palestinian land.

The so-called E1 project, recently greenlit by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, will fill the last major gap in the settlement belt -- an area that, until now, had remained untouched by construction.

"This actually cuts the possibility of a viable Palestinian state," said Hagit Ofran, of Peace Now, an Israeli anti-settlement group. "The territorial continuity from North to South is going to be totally cut."

Israel previously froze construction plans at Maale Adumim in 2012 and again in 2020, following objections from the US, European allies and other powers who viewed the project as a threat to any future peace deal with the Palestinians.

But in August, Netanyahu and far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced that work would begin. Smotrich declared the move would “bury” the idea of a Palestinian state.

"Whoever in the world is trying to recognize a Palestinian state today will receive our answer on the ground," Smotrich said. "Not with documents nor with decisions or statements, but with facts. Facts of houses, facts of neighborhoods."

SETTLEMENT GROWTH DEFIES DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE

The move was condemned by Australia, Britain, Canada, the European Union and Japan as a breach of international law.

Palestinian presidential spokesperson Nabil Abu Rudeinah condemned the announcement, calling it a violation of international law.

The offices of Netanyahu and Smotrich did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Reflecting growing criticism of the Gaza war -- which has devastated much of the enclave on Israel’s southern border -- Australia, Britain, Canada and Portugal recognized a Palestinian state on Sunday, joining about 140 other countries that have already done so.

But the timing highlights a stark contrast between diplomatic gestures and the reality on the ground, where Israeli settlements continue to expand rapidly across the occupied West Bank.

Most world powers consider all the settlements illegal under international law, although Israel says it has historical and biblical ties to the area that it calls Judea and Samaria.

A UN report says Israel has significantly expanded settlements in the West Bank in breach of international law.

Today, about 700,000 Israeli settlers live among 3.4 million Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Last month, Jahalin's community was served demolition orders for their homes and told they had 60 days to tear them down themselves. Israeli security forces accompanied by dogs have repeatedly raided their homes at night, acts the community views as intimidation.

"When a child wakes up and sees a dog in his face, he gets frightened, it's a disaster," said Mohammed al-Jahalin, Atallah's brother.

Mohammed al-Jahalin said they used to challenge the demolition notices in court, but since the Gaza war, "if you reach out to the court it will give you an immediate evacuation order."

Part of the E1 project includes the so-called "Fabric of Life Road," which would create separate roads for Israelis and Palestinians, cutting off Palestinian access to large swathes of the West Bank. The road would also sever a vital link between Bedouin communities -- like the 22 families living in Jabal Al-Baba -- and the nearby Palestinian village of al-Eizariya.

BEDOUIN FEAR A NEW CYCLE OF DISPOSSESSION

As children, the Jahalin brothers walked down the stony hill to attend school in the bustling town below, and their grandchildren follow the same path today.

"We are dependent on al-Eizariya for education as the children go to school there, for health, for everything, our economic situation is also tied to al-Eizariya," said Atallah.

A few hills over across a highway, the settlement of Maale Adumim is poised to expand under the E1 plan.

"I do feel for the Palestinians," said Shelly Brinne, a settler living in Maale Adumim, citing their struggles with checkpoints and limited work opportunities. "But unfortunately as an Israeli citizen I feel like I have to worry about my security first."

A spokesperson for the Maale Adumim settlement did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Bedouin community came to Jabal Al-Baba after what Palestinians call the "Nakba" or catastrophe, when hundreds of thousands were dispossessed in the war at the birth of the state of Israel.

"Our forefathers lived the Nakba, and today, we go through all the struggle, which we wish our children do not have to go through," said Atallah, who is the leader of the community.

In the evening one of the men made coffee over an open flame while the rest of the community lounged on cushions and traded jokes as the sun dipped behind the hills.

Across the highway, the lights of Maale Adumim’s white high-rises glittered.

“There is no place for us to go," said Mohammed, sipping his coffee. "To leave the land that we were born in, and so were our fathers and forefathers, if we have to leave it, it would be like dying."

Features

What to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program as UN ‘Snapback’ Sanctions Deadline Draws Closer 

This shows Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP)
This shows Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP)
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What to Know About Iran’s Nuclear Program as UN ‘Snapback’ Sanctions Deadline Draws Closer 

This shows Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP)
This shows Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, Iran, on April, 9, 2007. (AP)

A 30-day window to stop the reimposition of United Nations sanctions on Iran is closing, likely meaning Tehran will face new pressure on its ailing economy as tensions remain high in the wider Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip.

As the UN General Assembly meets this week in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have a last chance to try to halt the sanctions. The clock started when France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Aug. 28 declared Iran wasn't complying with its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Tehran has argued without success that the deal was voided by the United States' unilateral withdrawal from the accord in 2018 under President Donald Trump's first administration. Since then, Iran has severely restricted required inspections by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, particularly after the 12-day war Israel launched on Iran in June. That war saw both the US and Israel bomb key Iranian nuclear sites.

Here's what to know about Iran's nuclear sites, “snapback” sanctions and other issues raising tensions between Iran and the West.

What is ‘snapback’ and how does it work?

The “snapback” process, as it is called by the diplomats who negotiated it into Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, was designed to be veto-proof at the UN Security Council and could take effect 30 days after parties to the deal told the Security Council that Iran was not complying. It would again freeze Iranian assets abroad, halt arms deals with Tehran, and penalize any development of Iran’s ballistic missile program, among other measures.

The power to impose “snapback” expires Oct. 18, which likely prompted the European countries to use it before they lost the measure. After that, any sanctions effort would face a veto from UN Security Council members China and Russia, nations that have provided support to Iran in the past. China has remained a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, something that could be affected if “snapback” happens, while Russia has relied on Iranian drones in its war on Ukraine.

Why does Iran’s nuclear program worry the West?

Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near-weapons-grade levels, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The IAEA put Iran's stockpile just before the war at 9,874.9 kilograms (21,770.4 pounds), with 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%. That would allow Iran to build several nuclear weapons, should it choose to do so.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

US struck three major Iranian nuclear sites during Israel war

Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz, located some 220 kilometers (135 miles) southeast of Tehran, is the country’s main enrichment site and had already been targeted by Israeli airstrikes when the US attacked it in June. Uranium had been enriched to up to 60% purity at the site — a short step away from weapons grade — before Israel destroyed the aboveground part of the facility, according to the IAEA.

Another part of the facility on Iran’s Central Plateau is underground to defend against airstrikes. It operates multiple “cascades,” groups of centrifuges that work together to more quickly enrich uranium. The IAEA has said it believes that most if not all of these centrifuges were destroyed by an Israeli strike that cut off power to the site. The US also dropped so-called bunker-busting bombs on the site, likely heavily damaging it.

Iran’s nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, located some 100 kilometers (60 miles) southwest of Tehran, also came under US bombardment with bunker-busting bombs. The US struck the Isfahan Nuclear Technology as well with smaller munitions.

Israel separately targeted other sites associated with the program, including the Arak heavy water reactor.

Why have relations been so bad between Iran and the US?

Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the region under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. Then came the revolution led by Khomeini, which created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed. During Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the US backed Saddam Hussein. During that conflict, the US launched a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea as part of the so-called “Tanker War,” and later it shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the American military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have seesawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, and relations peaked with the 2015 nuclear deal. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Middle East that persist today, fanned by the Israel-Hamas war and Israel's wider strikes across the region.

Features

Macron Takes Risk with Palestinian Statehood Recognition

French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands after his visit to Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral ahead of Local Heritage Days to celebrate the reopening of the cathedral's Towers to visitors in Paris, France, 19 September 2025. (Reuters)
French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands after his visit to Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral ahead of Local Heritage Days to celebrate the reopening of the cathedral's Towers to visitors in Paris, France, 19 September 2025. (Reuters)
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Macron Takes Risk with Palestinian Statehood Recognition

French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands after his visit to Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral ahead of Local Heritage Days to celebrate the reopening of the cathedral's Towers to visitors in Paris, France, 19 September 2025. (Reuters)
French President Emmanuel Macron shakes hands after his visit to Notre-Dame de Paris Cathedral ahead of Local Heritage Days to celebrate the reopening of the cathedral's Towers to visitors in Paris, France, 19 September 2025. (Reuters)

French President Emmanuel Macron scored a major diplomatic coup by declaring his intention to recognize a Palestinian state but the move risks being followed by bitter retaliation from Israel while not providing concrete benefits to the Palestinians, analysts and sources say.

Macron sent a shockwave through the international community with his pledge over the summer. His announcement in a speech in New York at a conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Monday is now to be matched by recognition by nine other states including Australia, Belgium, Canada and the UK, according to the Elysee.

The recognition marks the growing international frustration with Israel over its assault and aid blockades on the Gaza Strip first launched in response to the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Palestinian group Hamas.

The implications are historic -- France and the UK will be the first permanent UN Security Council members to recognize a Palestinian state and, along with Canada, the first G7 members to do so.

"This recognition is not the end of our diplomatic efforts. It is not a symbolic recognition. It is part of a broader and very concrete action," said French foreign ministry spokesman Pascal Confavreux, pointing to the Saudi-French roadmap that is to accompany the recognition.

Defending the move on Israeli television this week, Macron said it was the "best way to isolate Hamas".

Diplomats from both sides, asking not to be named, are expecting reprisals from Israel in the wake of the move although the retaliation is not expected to extend to Israel cutting diplomatic relations with France.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could shut down France's consulate in Jerusalem which is intensively used by Palestinians or annex part of the West Bank where Israel has expanded settlements in defiance of international outrage, they said.

"There is going to be a lot of noise," said one diplomat, asking not to be named.

"The Israelis are prepared for anything, and the French response is likely to be quite limited," said Agnes Levallois, deputy president of the Paris-based Institute for Research and Study of the Mediterranean and Middle East.

"Ultimately, it is the Palestinians who have the most to lose in this crisis," she said, adding the move needed to be followed by sanctions against Israel to have any impact.

"The annexation of the West Bank is a clear red line," warned a French presidential official, asking not to be named. "It is obviously the worst possible violation of UN resolutions."

The United States also vehemently opposes the move and its ambassador to Paris, Charles Kushner, has made his feelings clear in a series of posts on X denouncing "unmet French conditions" for the recognition.

"From the beginning, we have made it clear that recognition of a Palestinian state by France, without any conditions, would complicate the situation on the ground rather than advance peace," Joshua Zarka, Israel's ambassador to France, told AFP.

Zarka said France should have not taken the step without demanding that all the Israeli hostages held by Hamas were released first.

But the Palestinian representative in France, Hala Abou Hassira, said France needed to go further, urging "concrete sanctions, such as an arms embargo on Israel, a severance of relations with Israel which includes the total termination of the association agreement between the European Union and Israel."

After months of wavering on the issue, Macron made the decision on the plane travelling from the Egyptian border point of El-Arish in April where he met wounded Palestinians and could witness the suffering caused by the blockade, people close to him said.

Politically embattled at home -- Macron just appointed his seventh prime minister -- and failing despite intense efforts to end Russia's war on Ukraine, the recognition gives the president a chance to seal a concrete step in his legacy.

He sees this recognition "as a diplomatic lever to put pressure on Netanyahu," said a person close to him, asking not to be named.

For former ambassador Michel Duclos, resident fellow at the Montaigne Institute, "this could become a success for France," in line with the French "no" under late president Jacques Chirac to oppose the American invasion of Iraq in 2003.