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Worries over Ukraine Invasion Pummel US Stocks, Lift Oil Prices

File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
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Worries over Ukraine Invasion Pummel US Stocks, Lift Oil Prices

File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss
File: Both the Dow and S&P finished at new peaks on Friday and also posted their fourth consecutive weekly gains. AFP/Angela Weiss

Wall Street stocks tumbled and oil prices surged Friday as White House warnings of a possibly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine reverberated through financial markets.

Markets lurched during a briefing by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who said a Russian invasion could "begin at any time," including during the Beijing Winter Olympics, AFP said.

"If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians," Sullivan said. "Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours."

Investors had become less worried about an imminent invasion of Ukraine in recent days following Western diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But stocks tumbled after Sullivan's remarks, with the S&P 500 ultimately losing 1.9 percent.

Analysts said the sell-off was likely heightened by the timing just before the weekend, with investors shifting into a "risk-off" mode to reduce their exposure for the two days when there is no trading.

"The Russia-Ukraine tensions have hovered over already shaky investor sentiment," said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management. "Investors have been counting on a diplomatic resolution, but recent developments indicate this may be wishful thinking and therefore, not fully priced into the markets."

Most industrial sectors finished lower on Wall Street following the midday White House announcement.

An exception was energy, with oil giants Chevron and ExxonMobil winning more than two percent as crude prices jumped on worries that stiff sanctions on Russia could prompt the country, a major crude and natural gas exporter, to curtail investment or weaponize their energy assets.

Shares of weapons makers also moved higher, including Lockheed Martin, which gained 2.8 percent and Northrop Grumman, which rose 4.5 percent.

Earlier in Europe, London equities slid after economic data pointed to a December slowdown amid the Omicron variant of Covid-19.

The UK economy grew by a record 7.5 percent last year to rebound from the pandemic crash, but shrank by a modest 0.2 percent in the final month, official data showed.

In the eurozone, Frankfurt and Paris stocks banked lower, mirroring Asia after overnight Wall Street losses.

- Key figures around 2150 GMT -
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.4 percent at 34,738.06 (close)

New York - S&P 500: DOWN 1.9 percent at 4,418.64 (close)

New York - Nasdaq: DOWN 2.8 percent at 13,791.15 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 7,661.02 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX: DOWN 0.4 percent at 15,425.12 (close)

Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 1.3 percent at 7,011.60 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 1.0 percent at 4,153.23 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 24,906.66 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,462.95 (close)

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1351 from $1.1428 late Thursday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3564 from $1.3557

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.64 pence from 84.29 pence

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 115.48 yen from 116.01 yen

Brent North Sea crude: UP 3.3 percent at $94.44 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.6 percent at $93.10 per barrel

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Business

IMF Acknowledges Economic Turnaround in Pakistan

A man cuts meat at a local restaurant in Karachi (EPA)
A man cuts meat at a local restaurant in Karachi (EPA)
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IMF Acknowledges Economic Turnaround in Pakistan

A man cuts meat at a local restaurant in Karachi (EPA)
A man cuts meat at a local restaurant in Karachi (EPA)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has acknowledged a marked improvement in Pakistan's economic outlook, stating that policy efforts under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) have helped stabilize the economy, contain inflation and rebuild confidence, as the country prepares for a fresh round of review talks later this month.

Speaking at a press briefing in Washington, IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said an IMF staff team will visit Pakistan from February 25 for discussions on the Third Review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

According to Pakistani newspaper, The Express Tribute, Kozack described Pakistan's fiscal performance in the 2025 financial year as “strong,” noting that the country has achieved a primary fiscal surplus of 1.3% of GDP, a figure that aligns with agreed program targets.

Last December, the IMF approved the release of $1.2 billion to Pakistan, giving the cash-strapped country a fresh boost as it works to recover from one of its worst economic crises in years.

The IMF will provide Pakistan $1 billion under its Extended Fund Facility and $200 million under its Resilience and Sustainability Facility.

Pakistan's central bank governor Jameel Ahmad told Reuters this week the recovery is broader and more durable than headline export data suggest.

The chief said he expects the economy to grow as much as 4.75% this fiscal year, pushing back against a recent downgrade by the IMF.

He said differences in projections were not unusual and reflected timing issues, including the IMF's incorporation of flood-related assessments in its latest outlook.

“All these sources and indicators, along with FY26-Q1 data, point to a broad-based recovery in all three sectors of the economy,” Ahmad said.

He added that the central bank believed that agricultural activity had remained resilient despite floods and “it is even performing better than its targets.”

Ahmad said financial conditions had eased significantly following a cumulative 1,150 basis point cut in the policy rate since June 2024, and that the full impact was still feeding through. This, he said, was supporting growth while preserving price and economic stability.

The central bank last month held its benchmark rate at 10.5%, defying expectations for a cut.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raised its FY26 growth forecast to 3.75–4.75% at its January meeting, 0.5 percentage point higher than its previous range, despite a contraction in exports in the first half of the year and a widening trade deficit.

The governor said differences in projections were not unusual and reflected timing issues, including the IMF's incorporation of flood-related assessments in its latest outlook.

While exports declined in the first half of the fiscal year, Ahmad said the fall reflected low global prices and border disruptions rather than softer activity.
The divergence with the IMF comes at a delicate moment for Pakistan, which is emerging from a balance-of-payments crisis under a $7 billion IMF program.

Pakistan's previous growth spurts have often led to currency pressure and a decline in foreign exchange reserves, making the sustainability of the current rebound a key question for investors.

Ahmad said high-frequency indicators and 6% growth in large-scale manufacturing in July–November point to strengthening demand, while agriculture has remained resilient despite last year's floods.

“Additionally, if the government decided to tap global capital markets for any debt issuance, then that would be on the upside of our current assessment,” he said.

Pakistan plans to issue panda bonds, a yuan-denominated debt sold in China's domestic market around the upcoming Lunar New Year, as part of efforts to diversify external financing and broaden its investor base.

Ahmad said the central bank has been consistently purchasing dollars in the interbank market to strengthen foreign exchange buffers, with data published regularly.

He said that while economic stability has improved, structural reforms remain key to sustaining stronger growth and improving productivity.

Business

India, Brazil Sign Agreement to Boost Cooperation on Rare Earths, Cut Dependence on China

Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on February 21, 2026 (EPA)
Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on February 21, 2026 (EPA)
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India, Brazil Sign Agreement to Boost Cooperation on Rare Earths, Cut Dependence on China

Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on February 21, 2026 (EPA)
Brazilian President Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on February 21, 2026 (EPA)

India and Brazil sealed a deal Saturday on critical minerals and rare earths following a meeting in New Delhi between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“The agreement on critical minerals and rare earths is a major step towards building resilient supply chains,” Modi said.

“Increasing investments and cooperation in matters of renewable energies and critical minerals is at the core of the pioneering agreement that we have signed today,” said Lula, who arrived in New Delhi on Wednesday for a summit on artificial intelligence, accompanied by a delegation of more than a dozen ministers as well as business leaders.

The details of the deal were not immediately available but a senior Indian foreign ministry official said official discussions were underway.

Brazil has the world's second-largest reserves of critical minerals, which are used in everything from electric vehicles, solar panels and smartphones to jet engines and guided missiles.

India, seeking to cut its dependence on top exporter China, has been expanding domestic production and recycling while scouting for new suppliers.

Main Trade Partner

“Brazil is India's largest trade partner in Latin America. We are committed to taking our bilateral trade beyond $20 billion in the coming five years,” Modi said. “Our trade is not just a figure, but a reflection of trust.”

Nine other agreements and memoranda of understanding were finalized on Saturday, covering digital cooperation, health, entrepreneurship and other fields.

Rishabh Jain, an expert with the Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, said India's growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals complements recent supply chain engagements with the United States, France and the European Union.

While these partnerships grant India access to advanced technologies, finance and high-end processing capabilities, “Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade,” Jain told AFP.

India, the world's most populous nation, is the 10th largest market for Brazilian exports, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion in 2025.

Key Brazilian exports to India include sugar, crude oil, vegetable oils, cotton and iron ore.

Demand for iron ore has been driven by rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth in India, which is on track to become the world's fourth largest economy.

Business

Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
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Trump Says He Will Raise US Global Tariff Rate from 10% to 15%

US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, following the Supreme Court's ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority when he imposed tariffs, in Washington, DC, US, February 20, 2026. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump said on Saturday he will raise temporary tariffs on almost all US imports from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program as invalid.

Trump had immediately announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on Friday after the court's decision, which ‌found the president ‌had exceeded his authority when ‌he ⁠imposed an array ⁠of higher rates under an economic emergency law.

The new levies are grounded in a separate law, known as Section 122, that allows tariffs up to 15% but requires congressional approval to extend them after 150 days.

In a ⁠social media post on Saturday, ‌Trump said he ‌would use that period to work on issuing other "legally ‌permissible" tariffs. The administration intends to rely ‌on two other statutes that permit import taxes on specific products or countries based on investigations into national security or unfair trade practices.

"I, as President of ‌the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% ⁠Worldwide ⁠Tariff on Countries, many of which have been 'ripping' the US off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level," he wrote in a Truth Social post.

Trump has shown little sign of backing off his global trade war in the hours since the court's 6-3 decision, attacking individual justices in personal terms and insisting he retained the power to impose tariffs as he sees fit.