Oil Prices Climb More Than 1% to 7-Year Highs

A flag with the OPEC logo is seen during a meeting. Reuters
A flag with the OPEC logo is seen during a meeting. Reuters
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Oil Prices Climb More Than 1% to 7-Year Highs

A flag with the OPEC logo is seen during a meeting. Reuters
A flag with the OPEC logo is seen during a meeting. Reuters

Oil prices on Monday hit their highest in more than seven years on fears that a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger US and European sanctions that would disrupt exports from the world's top producer in an already tight market.

Brent crude futures was at $95.61 a barrel by 0506 GMT, up $1.17, or 1.2%, after earlier hitting a peak of $96.16, the highest since October 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.41, or 1.5%, to $94.51 a barrel, hovering near a session-high of $94.94, the loftiest since September 2014.

Comments from the United States about an imminent attack by Russia on Ukraine have rattled global financial markets.

Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, the United States said on Sunday.

"If ... troop movement happens, Brent crude won't have any trouble rallying above the $100 level," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note.

"Oil prices will remain extremely volatile and sensitive to incremental updates regarding the Ukraine situation."

The tensions come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, struggle to ramp up output despite monthly pledges to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) until March, Reuters reported.

The International Energy Agency said the gap between OPEC+ output and its target widened to 900,000 bpd in January, while JP Morgan said the gap for OPEC alone was at 1.2 million bpd.

"We note signs of strain across the group: seven members of OPEC-10 failed to meet quota increases in the month, with the largest shortfall exhibited by Iraq," JP Morgan analysts said in a Feb. 11 note.

The bank added that a super-cycle is in full swing with "oil prices likely to overshoot to $125 a barrel on widening spare capacity risk premium".

CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said spare supply is limited and demand for oil has outpaced production growth, as economies bounce back from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic.

"It would not take long for prices to spike higher, though global leaders are rushing to help defuse the growing tension," she added.

Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

However, a senior Iranian security official said on Monday that progress in talks was becoming "more difficult".

In the United States, the robust oil prices are encouraging energy firms to ramp up output as they added the most oil rigs in four years last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday.



COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
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COP29 President to Asharq Al-Awsat: We Aim for Fair Climate Ambitions, Value Saudi Efforts

Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)
Security personnel walk outside the venue of the COP29 conference. (AP)

The appointed president of the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP29), Mukhtar Babayev, emphasized that the conference has a clear vision to advance ambition and empower action toward achieving the 1.5°C target.

“We aim for fair climate ambitions and sustainable financing,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, pointing to Saudi Arabia’s efforts in addressing critical climate issues.

Azerbaijan will host COP29 starting Monday, with the conference running through November 22, to address the rising threats of climate change. The top priority will be reaching an agreement on a new climate finance target.

On the eve of the meeting, Babayev told Asharq Al-Awsat that the vision involves “enhancing ambition” by having parties submit Nationally Determined Contributions, National Adaptation Plans, and biennial transparency reports as signals of commitment and guidance on mutual support.

Babayev, who also serves as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, added that empowering action requires increased climate financing from multiple sources to turn ambitions into concrete actions. Key goals include establishing a fair, ambitious climate finance target, finalizing Article 6 implementation, reforming multilateral development banks to address climate efforts more effectively, and mobilizing the private sector to play a key role, he underlined.

Article 6 is a core component of the Paris Agreement, focusing on the development of carbon markets, where countries, companies, and individuals can trade carbon credits.

Babayev also noted that COP29 has launched its action program, with initiatives to advance various issues beyond the formal negotiations.

“Much of our strategy builds on past progress and prior commitments, from the Paris Agreement to the global stocktake,” he said. “By working closely with parties, including Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the Middle East and North Africa, we hope to make real strides this year.”

Geopolitical tensions

Babayev acknowledged that geopolitical tensions present ongoing challenges to global climate action.

However, he said COP29 provides an opportunity to unite countries around a shared goal: addressing climate change.

“As COP29 president, our strategy centers on diplomacy, inclusivity, and practical solutions to ensure that political issues do not hinder progress,” he explained. Climate change affects all countries, creating common ground for cooperation.

Vulnerable nations

Babayev highlighted the COP29 presidency’s commitment to prioritizing the needs of small island developing states and the least developed countries, as they are disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing the least to global emissions.

“In COP29 presidency consultations, we presented a vision based on two parallel pillars: enhancing ambition and empowering action, with climate finance as a top priority. Reaching an agreement on a fair, ambitious new climate finance target, or the new collective quantified goal, is essential for addressing the severe climate impacts facing frontline communities, including small island developing states and the least developed countries,” he said.

Collective quantified goal

Babayev underscored the new collective quantified goal as a key priority at COP-29, saying: “The top negotiation priority for the COP29 presidency is reaching agreement on a fair and ambitious new climate finance target.”

He continued: “We know the needs are in the trillions, but perspectives differ on how to achieve this. Realistically, public sector contributions and mobilization appear to be in the hundreds of billions. The new target should also include detailed qualitative elements, and we’ve seen progress in terms of access, robust transparency arrangements, structure, and a ten-year framework.”

Upholding commitments

Ensuring that past commitments are honored is a top priority for the COP29 presidency, according to Babayev.

“Transparency is essential to mutual trust within the UNFCCC process, and the COP29 presidency has emphasized enhancing transparency, with biennial transparency reports crucial for tracking progress on commitments and assessing financial gaps and needs,” he explained.

Azerbaijan will lead by example by submitting its own biennial transparency reports ahead of COP29, and Babayev encouraged other parties to do the same. “We are creating a platform for parties to demonstrate their commitment to transparency and publish their biennial transparency reports on time,” he added.

Loss and damage fund and additional pledges

Recognizing COP29’s role in securing additional pledges and enhancing funds to better support vulnerable communities, Babayev stated: “The COP29 presidency is committed to addressing these concerns directly. We recently made substantial progress in Baku and are proud of the role we have played so far.”

He explained: “At the third meeting of the Loss and Damage Fund Board, held in Baku, we took significant steps to establish the financial groundwork for disbursements starting in 2025. Hundreds of millions already pledged will provide practical support to the most vulnerable communities, and we will use COP29 as a platform to call for additional contributions to further strengthen the fund.”

Babayev also acknowledged the contributions of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa region, noting that Saudi Arabia has played a vital role through its leadership of the Arab negotiating group, representing the region’s views and priorities on the global stage.

“We appreciate the efforts of our partners in Saudi Arabia and the Middle East and North Africa in addressing the critical climate issues affecting us all,” he said.

Reflecting on his meeting with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in Jeddah earlier this year, Babayev noted: “We discussed opportunities for collaboration on climate action and how we can work together most effectively to achieve the goals and principles of the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.”

He welcomed Saudi Arabia’s initiatives to address climate change, including renewable energy use, emissions management, and carbon reduction and removal efforts such as the Saudi Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative, along with circular carbon economy practices, technologies, and other national and regional programs.