Travel Ban Imposed on Iraq Finance Minister amid Dispute with Sadr

An aerial view of Baghdad, Iraq, Aug. 11, 2021. (Reuters)
An aerial view of Baghdad, Iraq, Aug. 11, 2021. (Reuters)
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Travel Ban Imposed on Iraq Finance Minister amid Dispute with Sadr

An aerial view of Baghdad, Iraq, Aug. 11, 2021. (Reuters)
An aerial view of Baghdad, Iraq, Aug. 11, 2021. (Reuters)

Criticism by Iraqi Finance Minister Ali Abdul-Amir Allawi against Sadrist movement leader cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Deputy parliament Speaker Hakim al-Zamili has sparked wide debate in the country.

It marked the first time a minister openly criticizes Sadr, who enjoys a very loyal support base in the millions in Baghdad and other Iraqi regions. He also holds the parliamentary majority, with 73 lawmakers.

The criticism prompted a retort from Zamili, who slammed Allawi on Saturday for his failure in running his ministry. Zamili is also a member of the Sadrist movement.

The dispute between the Sadrists and Allawi goes back to popular demands to restore the dinar's exchange rate to match the global oil prices. In 2020, the central bank, with the Finance Ministry's backing, lowered the exchange rate by 23 percent against the dollar.

In a tweet on Friday, Sadr called on the parliament to summon Allawi and the central bank governor for a debriefing over the exchange rate and other financial issues.

Allawi responded with a strongly-worded message to Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, refusing to appear before parliament and criticizing the way he was summoned by Zamili.

In his message, Allawi confirmed that he received a summons by the deputy parliament speaker, criticizing how it was made shortly after Sadr made his tweet.

"This entire process is unacceptable and no one should remain silent over it, for the sake of the dignity of the government, mine as a minister and mine personally and for my family," he remarked.

"The government does not stand accountable before any political party. It is responsible before the Iraqi people through the elected parliament," he continued.

"If we, as a government, do not reject this heinous meddling in the affairs of government by political parties, then we might as well relinquish the independence of the government," he went on to say.

Allawi stressed his "categorical rejection" of the summons by the deputy parliament speaker, because such an order is beyond his jurisdiction.

"I also categorically refuse to see the government being run through tweets by political leaders, regardless of their popularity and standing," he declared.

The minister defended his support of lowering the dinar exchange rate, noting that it had enjoyed the support of the international community, government, central bank and political parties at the time.

Moreover, he stressed that he was ready to defend his stance and economic and financial policies "before the lawmakers as a whole, not before a certain parliamentary group."

Central bank Governor Mustafa Ghaleb and his deputy did show up for the summons on Saturday.

A statement from Zamili's office said a travel ban will be imposed on Allawi for refusing to appear before parliament.

He confirmed that the parliament will convene at the end of the week at the request of 50 MPs to discuss the financial policy, exchange rate and other relevant issues.

He also slammed Allawi for his "failed management of companies outside of Iraq," adding that he "has offered nothing to this country." He said he was partially to blame for Iraq's debt "rising to 27 trillion dinars in one year alone."

Kadhimi had yet to comment on the dispute.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”