Russian Invasion of Ukraine Forces Swedes to Rethink NATO Membership

Sweden's Air Force "Grippen" fighters are seen as they escort a Lithuania's Air Force C-27J plane during NATO joint military exercise in Siauliai April 1, 2014. (Reuters)
Sweden's Air Force "Grippen" fighters are seen as they escort a Lithuania's Air Force C-27J plane during NATO joint military exercise in Siauliai April 1, 2014. (Reuters)
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Forces Swedes to Rethink NATO Membership

Sweden's Air Force "Grippen" fighters are seen as they escort a Lithuania's Air Force C-27J plane during NATO joint military exercise in Siauliai April 1, 2014. (Reuters)
Sweden's Air Force "Grippen" fighters are seen as they escort a Lithuania's Air Force C-27J plane during NATO joint military exercise in Siauliai April 1, 2014. (Reuters)

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has for the first time seen a majority of Swedes in favor of joining NATO, according to a poll, and signs are the political landscape could to change too in a country long known for neutrality.

Sweden has not been in a war since 1814 and has built its foreign policy on "non-participation in military alliances." It remained neutral throughout World War Two even as neighboring Nordic countries were invaded, and during the Cold War.

A poll on Friday by Demoskop and commissioned by Aftonbladet newspaper showed 51% of Swedes are now in favor of NATO membership, up from 42% in January. People against joining fell to 27% from 37%. It's the first time such a poll has shown a majority in favor.

However, Sweden's Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said joining NATO was not an easy decision, nor one that could be rushed based on recent events alone.

"To change the defense doctrine, that is a very huge decision, so you don't do it overnight and you cannot do it because of opinion polls," he told a news conference in Copenhagen where he met his Danish and British counterparts.

However, the Sweden Democrats, the third biggest party in parliament, said on Friday it was reviewing its stance, which could give a majority in parliament to those who wish to join.

"We are analyzing the situation now, hour by hour more or less, looking at the NATO issue, looking at other security policy collaborations and what we can do," Aron Emilsson, foreign policy spokesperson for the Sweden Democrats told Swedish Radio.

"It is clear that everything is put in a completely different light right now," he said.

Sweden's center-right opposition has long called for membership but the Social Democrats, the Left Party, the Greens and the nationalist Sweden Democrats have resisted the move.

The shift in opinion echoes that in close ally and NATO non-member Finland, where the head of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs described Russia's attack on Ukraine as a wake-up call and "Europe's 9/11 for Finns."

Claes Levinsson, director at the Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Uppsala University said the close cooperation between Sweden and Finland, which include joint military drills and materiel purchases, meant that if Finland joined, Sweden probably would too.

"Sweden is closer than ever before to joining NATO but it would need a substantial majority both in parliament and among the people. It would require the Social Democrats changing opinion", Levinsson said, adding that NATO's process of accepting members could also take time.

Sweden and Finland already have very close cooperation with NATO and Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in January the two countries could join the alliance "very quickly" if they decided to apply for membership. On Friday he said NATO had decided to strengthen coordination further.

"Both countries are now taking part in all NATO consultations about the crisis," Stoltenberg said.

Russia, which says it is conducting a "special operation" in Ukraine, has warned Sweden and Finland against joining NATO, saying it would lead to "serious military and political consequences."

Sweden took the decision this month to send weapons to Ukraine, the first time since 1939 Sweden sent weapons to a country at war.

On Friday British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said it would be incomprehensible that Britain would not come and support Sweden.

"Sweden is part of the same family so we would stand by Sweden, we would do anything we could to support both militarily and in other ways," he said.



Afghans Both Hopeful, Disappointed after Russia's Taliban Recognition

A man talks by a phone while standing on a balcony of the Afghan Embassy in Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 4, 2025, after Russia recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)
A man talks by a phone while standing on a balcony of the Afghan Embassy in Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 4, 2025, after Russia recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)
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Afghans Both Hopeful, Disappointed after Russia's Taliban Recognition

A man talks by a phone while standing on a balcony of the Afghan Embassy in Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 4, 2025, after Russia recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)
A man talks by a phone while standing on a balcony of the Afghan Embassy in Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 4, 2025, after Russia recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Pavel Bednyakov)

Russia's decision to formally recognize the Taliban government has been seen as an opening for a stronger economy by some Afghans, while others were skeptical that it would improve their lot.

Russia became the first country to acknowledge the Taliban authorities on Thursday, after a gradual building of ties that included removing their "terrorist organization" designation and accepting an ambassador in recent months.

The Taliban authorities had not been recognized by any state in the nearly four years since sweeping to power in 2021, ousting the foreign-backed government as US-led troops withdrew after a two-decade war.

Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world and in a fragile recovery from four decades of conflict.

"With the current situation in Afghanistan, with all the challenges, everyone is worried. If the world recognizes Afghanistan, we will be happy, currently, even the tiniest thing matters," Gul Mohammad, 58, said on Friday in the capital Kabul.

Despite having bitter memories of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, when he "lost everything" and became a refugee in Pakistan, he acknowledges that "the priorities are different now".

Jamaluddin Sayar, 67, predicted that "trade and economic prosperity will now blossom".

The retired pilot said other countries, "both western and eastern", should recognize the government and "stop spreading propaganda".

- Won't 'lead to anything' -

Russian and Afghan officials praised the move as an opening for deeper cooperation, notably in economic and security arenas.

Security concerns have been a key avenue for coordination between the Taliban authorities and the international community, amid fears Afghanistan would become fertile ground for increased militant activity.

The authorities have prioritized security and made repeated assurances that Afghan soil would not be used by any group to plan attacks on other nations.

However, Pakistan's ties with the Taliban authorities have been strained over a surge in militant activity since their takeover and last year, an attack claimed by the ISIS group's branch in Afghanistan killed 137 people in a Moscow concert hall.

In a country where dissent and protest is tightly controlled, some Kabul residents were afraid to openly criticize the Taliban authorities.

Atef, not his real name, was unconvinced better relations between Afghanistan and Russia would improve the livelihoods of ordinary Afghans.

"I think Afghanistan will fall into the traps of the Russians again, the issues and challenges will increase, and there is nothing that can help ordinary people," the unemployed 25-year-old said.

"People are struggling, and they will still struggle with or without the recognition."

For Afghan women's rights activists, particularly those who have advocated for isolating the Taliban government, the recognition was seen as a setback that "legitimizes" restrictions on women.

The Taliban authorities, who also ruled the country between 1996 and 2001, have again imposed an austere version of their own interpretation of Islamic law.

Norway-based Afghan women's rights activist Hoda Khamosh was defiant against the impact of the Russian move.

"Human rights organizations right now are trying to recognize gender apartheid in Afghanistan because the Taliban are a repressive regime against women," she said.

"Therefore, these recognitions will not lead to anything."