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Truce Holds in Syria's Idlib as Turkey Bolsters its Military Posts

The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
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Truce Holds in Syria's Idlib as Turkey Bolsters its Military Posts

The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)
The sun setting over the opposition-held northwestern city of Idlib, Syria, June 29, 2021. (AFP)

Saturday marked two years since the signing of the truce agreement between Turkey and Russia over Syria's northwestern Idlib province and some regions of the Hama, Aleppo and Latakia provinces.

The agreement allowed Turkey to bolster its military positions along over 78 posts. It has also deployed hundreds of heavy armored vehicles and thousands of troops.

In spite of the agreement, the past two years have witnessed violations of the truce in opposition-held regions by the regime and the Russian air force. Hundreds of innocent civilians were killed in the attacks and thousands of other fled to the Jabal al-Zawiya area in southern Idlib.

On March 5, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a ceasefire in Idlib to contain the fighting between the opposition and regime forces after the latter had carried out a wide-scale operation, backed by Russia, against Idlib.

The fighting at the time led to the displacement of nearly a million people from Idlib and the death of dozens. Turkey was forced to bring in more troops to contain the situation.

The de-escalation regions, as they are known, have witnessed relative calm in recent weeks. Russian jets rarely fly over the areas. The calm is welcome after two years of air strikes and attacks by the regime and its allied militias against the opposition. The attacks targeted vital facilities, including water pumping stations, medical centers and displacement camps.

Over 270 people, including 120 women and children, were killed in the unrest. Four massacres were reported in the Maarat Masrin and Ariha regions and the villages of Mashoun, Balshoun and Balyoun in Jabal al-Zawiya.

Idlib has in recent weeks witnessed military operations by the US-led international coalition fighting ISIS. Drone attacks targeted members of various extremist factions, including the Hurras al-Din group. Another notable attack led to the killing of ISIS leader Abdullah Qardash in Atmeh in northern Idlib in early February.

Amid the calm, the economy has slowly started to pick up. Administrations in Idlib have started to operate using the Turkish lira instead of the plummeting Syrian pound, demonstrating the extent of Ankara's influence.

The Syrian-Turkish border in Idlib has become the province's window to the world. Turkish commercial goods and food, new and used European and Asian cars and oil derivatives are all brought in from across the border into Idlib.

The local salvation government has recently approved several development and economic projects, including the establishment of a major industrial zone in Sarmada. Main highways have been widened between cities and operations at several vital facilities have resumed, providing new job opportunities for Syrians.

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Europeans Sidelined in US-Iran Nuclear Talks despite Holding Key Card

A general view of Muscat, ahead of the awaited negotiations between US and Iran, in Oman, April 11, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view of Muscat, ahead of the awaited negotiations between US and Iran, in Oman, April 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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Europeans Sidelined in US-Iran Nuclear Talks despite Holding Key Card

A general view of Muscat, ahead of the awaited negotiations between US and Iran, in Oman, April 11, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view of Muscat, ahead of the awaited negotiations between US and Iran, in Oman, April 11, 2025. (Reuters)

Washington's decision not to coordinate with European nations about its negotiations with Iran on Saturday will reduce its leverage and make US and Israeli military action against Tehran ultimately more likely, analysts and diplomats said.

The United States did not tell European countries about the nuclear talks in Oman before President Donald Trump announced them on Tuesday, even though they hold a key card on the possible reimposition of UN sanctions on Tehran, three European diplomats said.

"The United States is going to need a coordinated diplomatic strategy with its European allies going into these negotiations with Iran," said Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

That coordination is "crucial to making sure that there is maximum pressure and any diplomatic option has a chance of success," Misztal said.

Trump, who restored a "maximum pressure" campaign on Tehran in February, on Wednesday repeated threats to use military force against Iran if it didn't halt its nuclear program and said Israel would be "the leader of that."

The West suspects Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, which it denies. The threat of renewed sanctions is intended to pressure Tehran into concessions, but detailed discussions on strategy have yet to take place with the Americans, the diplomats said.

Because the United States quit a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, it cannot initiate its mechanism for reimposing sanctions, called snapback, at the United Nations Security Council.

That makes Britain, Germany and France, known as the E3, the only deal participants capable of and interested in pursuing snapback, so it is crucial that Washington align with these allies, analysts said. Israel, Iran's arch-enemy, has already lobbied the E3 to initiate it.

According to the three diplomats, the E3 told Iran they would trigger the snapback mechanism by the end of June. Iran responded that doing so would mean harsh consequences and a review of its nuclear doctrine, the diplomats said.

"The E3 do not trust the United States because it is taking initiatives without them being consulted," said a senior European diplomat.

Trump withdrew the US in 2018 from the nuclear deal with Iran also signed by Russia and China. The accord curbed Iran's nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. Russia opposes restoring sanctions.

Under the nuclear accord, participants can initiate the 30-day snapback process if they are unable to resolve accusations of Iranian violations through a dispute-resolution mechanism.

But that opportunity expires on October 18 when the accord ends.

Since the US exited the deal in 2018, Iran has far surpassed its uranium enrichment limits, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Tehran is producing stocks of fissile purity well above what Western powers say is justifiable for a civilian energy program and close to weapons grade.

GOING IT ALONE

The US administration's approach echoes Trump's first term in office, when he also prioritized unilateral talks with Iran, and with his stance on the war in Ukraine, where Washington has begun direct talks with Moscow, sidelining Europeans.

European officials have held some meetings with US counterparts but said they were not sufficiently in-depth.

Even a meeting on Iran with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers meeting a week before Trump's announcement was difficult to arrange, three E3 officials said.

The British, French and German foreign ministries did not respond directly when asked if they had been made aware of the Oman talks ahead of time.

"We remain committed to taking every diplomatic step to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, including through snapback if necessary," a British foreign ministry spokesperson said.

France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said tersely on Wednesday that the French "take note with interest" the talks.

Neither the White House National Security Council nor the State Department immediately responded to a request for comment on the snapback or coordination with Europeans.

EUROPEAN-IRAN DIRECT TALKS

Having negotiated with Iran as a trio as far back as 2003 on the nuclear issue, the European countries consider their role essential to a solution. In the 2015 deal, a key carrot for Iran was being able to trade with Europe.

The Europeans have helped the United States pressure Iran in recent months, including at the UN atomic watchdog and with new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile program, detention of foreign citizens and support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

During the US policy vacuum after Trump won the election but before he took office, the Europeans tried to take the initiative by holding exploratory talks with Iran that began in September and have continued.

The E3 said that was necessary because time was running out before the 2015 deal expires on October 18. They have tried to sound out whether new restrictions, albeit narrower than those agreed in 2015, could be negotiated before then.

Diplomats said that in those talks, Iranian officials have often quizzed their counterparts on the new US administration.

"Iran believes that talks with the E3 and other parties to the nuclear deal can help defuse tensions over its nuclear program and can be complementary to talks with the US," said an Iranian official.