Oil Extends Rally After US Bans Russian Imports, Prompting Supply Fears

An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Extends Rally After US Bans Russian Imports, Prompting Supply Fears

An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
An oil pump is seen at sunset outside Vaudoy-en-Brie, near Paris, France April 23, 2018. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil prices rose on Wednesday as the US ban on Russian oil imports and Britain's plan to phase them out by year end raised concerns of tighter global supply.

Brent crude futures were up $2.17, or 1.7%, at $130.15 a barrel at 0133 GMT, after jumping 3.9% the previous day.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $1.57, or 1.3%, at $125.27 a barrel, after also surging 3.6% on Tuesday.

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports and Britain said it would phase out Russian oil imports through the end of 2022.

Oil prices have surged more than 30% since Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, invaded Ukraine.

Fears of further disruptions to oil supply amid escalating sanctions on Moscow has boosted buying, Reuters quoted analysts as saying.

"On top of the US and Britain's announcement effects, fears of further disruptions of supply from Russia due to intensifying sanctions on Moscow prompted fresh buying," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

"But Monday's highs will likely become a ceiling for the short term as speculative buying is expected to slow down soon and countries in the northern hemisphere are headed to spring when fuel demand drops," he said.

Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest levels since July 2008, with Brent hitting $139.13 a barrel and WTI $130.50.

Behind the rally was also expectations that an imminent return of Iranian crude to global markets was unlikely, as talks on Iran's nuclear program have slowed between Tehran and world powers.

Analysts at Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said on Tuesday that global oil prices could rise to $200 a barrel if Europe and the United States ban imports of Russian oil.

Still, oil prices running at their hottest level in 14 years are poised to cut post-COVID pandemic fuel demand as consumers react to surging pump and power prices by pulling back on spending and travel, top energy executives warned on Monday.

US crude stocks rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended March 4, against analysts' forecast of a drop, but gasoline and distillate stocks fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.