Defiant Odessa Is Seen Vulnerable to Russian Sea Assault

Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine. (Reuters)
Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine. (Reuters)
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Defiant Odessa Is Seen Vulnerable to Russian Sea Assault

Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine. (Reuters)
Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine. (Reuters)

Black and white newsreel from 1941 shows residents of Odessa, then a Soviet city, building barricades with cobblestones, while the streets are lined with sandbag defenses and "hedgehog" anti-tank barriers as German and Romanian forces approach.

Fast forward 81 years, and similar scenes are playing out in the picturesque Black Sea port, this time with Ukrainians hurrying to prepare Odessa for a possible assault by Russian troops by land, sea or both.

Military experts said an attempt to capture Odessa, which has so far been spared the intense bombardment and fighting seen in coastal areas further east, was possible given its strategic and symbolic importance to Ukraine.

More than half of Ukraine's imports and exports move through the port, they said, and it is the last major city between Russian forces advancing past Kherson to the east and the border with NATO member Romania to the west.

That would give Moscow control of the entire southern coastline, severely weakening Ukraine - an objective some military strategists had predicted in the early days of the invasion, which began on Feb. 24.

"Due to its importance to the Ukrainian economy, a Russian capture of the port would represent a material and symbolic loss for Ukraine in the conflict," said Anne Debie, analyst with maritime security company Dryad Global.

Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the Odessa Regional State Administration, told Reuters seven Russian vessels, including amphibious assault ships, had appeared on Thursday some 15 miles (24 km) off the coast of Odessa, visible through binoculars.

'Symbol of freedom'

Odessa's mayor said he was still hopeful it would not be attacked. There has been shelling by warships off the coast and air strikes in the area, killing dozens of people and targeting infrastructure, but the city center is so far largely unscathed.

The streets are mostly empty, but food stalls still operate and people walk calmly between barricades and fences on the pavements around the ornate opera house.

"Still I believe... and it's a kind of inner conviction, that it (an attack) will not happen, because Odessa is a symbol, a symbol of freedom," Mayor Gennadiy Trukhanov told Reuters in an interview late on Thursday.

But if it does, he acknowledged that the frontline Odessa would have to defend was long.

"They (the Russians) will simultaneously try to distract us from the Transdniestria direction, to create a problem there, and of course move from the sea.

"To hold such a large defensive front is rather difficult," he said, adding that the same went for whoever was attacking.

Transdniestria is a narrow strip of land held by pro-Russian separatists that runs along the east of Moldova and comes to within about 25 miles (40 km) of Odessa. Russian troops are stationed there, despite repeated calls by Moldovan President Maia Sandu for them to leave.

Ukraine fears Transdniestria could be used as a new front, putting further pressure on Odessa. Local media reported that a bridge from the region had been blown up by Ukrainian forces to slow any Russian push.

Russian troops have also passed Kherson to the east and naval ships can be seen in the distance off Odessa's shores.

Challenges

Gerry Northwood, a former British Royal Navy captain who commanded warships and a consultant with maritime security company MAST, said the land route to Odessa's east would be full of challenges for Russia.

"The geography of southern Ukraine doesn't favor a land force trying to penetrate Odessa from the east," he said.

"Too many estuaries, bays and rivers which largely run north-south and lots of killing zones for the Ukrainians to exploit at crossing points."

Far safer would be to do so by sea, he added.

Ukraine's navy is tiny - vastly reduced when Russian-backed forces seized Crimea in 2014 - although Odessa may be able to mine surrounding waters as well as the beaches likely to be used for an amphibious landing.

An analysis that the Ukrainian military shared with Reuters in mid-February said Russia was capable of using 12 ships for such a landing, delivering at least five battalion groups of up to 400 troops each plus support units.

It said three Ukrainian brigades reinforced by the National Guard and territorial defense troops would be waiting.

Artillery and medium-range missiles could also be fired at approaching vessels, it said, as well as shoulder-held weapons supplied by Western nations.

But Dryad Global's Debie warned that Russia could unleash an intense bombardment of Odessa and that Ukrainian forces were ill equipped to repel its Black Sea fleet.

A less drastic option for Moscow could be to impose a blockade of Ukraine's coast, which Northwood said would be relatively easy to do.

He added that Ukraine would then be reliant on land routes or air corridors, and if the latter were necessary it would make it harder for NATO to avoid getting sucked into the conflict.

In central Odessa, those civilians still there appeared calm.

"As many people say, Odessa is well defended by our forces and I ... feel quite positive about this," said jazz pianist and teacher Alexey Petukhov.



Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
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Iran’s Centrifuges: The Long Road Towards a Nuclear Bomb

This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)
This photo released on Nov. 5, 2019, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuge machines in the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, File)

The UN nuclear agency has confirmed that Iran plans to install around 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, according to a report seen by AFP on Friday.

“Iran informed the Agency that it intended to feed” around 6,000 centrifuges at its sites in Fordo and Natanz to enrich uranium to up to five percent, higher than the 3.67 percent limit Tehran had agreed to in 2015.

The Iranian decision came in response to a resolution adopted on November 21 by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

On Thursday, Iran had threatened to end its ban on acquiring nuclear weapons if Western sanctions are reimposed.

The country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in an interview that the nuclear debate inside Iran is likely to shift towards the possession of its own weapons if the west goes ahead with a threat to reimpose all UN sanctions,

What are centrifuges?

They are precise devices with cylinders that rotate much faster than the speed of sound, to collect enriched uranium atoms.

To explain how centrifugation works, rotating cylinders are much like medical laboratory equipment used to test blood.

The high rotation speeds exert a rotational force that separates the various components of blood as a function of their density and quantity in the sample.

In the case of uranium, the centrifuge operates using the familiar principle of centrifugal force. This force separates two gases of unequal masses in a spinning cylinder or tube. The heavier uranium-238 isotope collects at the outer edges of the cylinder while the lighter uranium-235 collects near the axis of rotation at the center.

Around 20 kg of uranium enriched to a 90% purity level would be needed for a single nuclear weapon. It would take about 1,500 SWU to produce a weapon-equivalent of 90 percent-enriched uranium from this enriched uranium.

At Fordo, Iran is currently using the two only operating cascades of IR-6 centrifuges there to enrich to 60% from 20%.

There are 1,044 centrifuges active at the Fordo uranium enrichment plant, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said.

He had earlier asked the Iran Atomic Energy Agency to begin inserting uranium gas into newly activated advanced centrifuges.

Early this month, a spokesperson for the US State Department said Iran's expansion of uranium enrichment activities in defiance of key nuclear commitments is "a big step in the wrong direction”.

His statement came after Tehran announced it would start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at Fordo.

Dispute

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed in 2015 between Tehran and Western countries, says advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment could operate until January 2027.

The difference between the first generation of centrifuges (IR-1) and the other generations is speed. The latest generation, IR-6, could enrich uranium up to 10 times faster than the first-generation IR-1, according to Iranian officials.

During the heyday of its nuclear program, Iran operated a total of 10,204 first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz and Fordo facilities. But under the deal, Iran's commitments included operating no more than 5,060 IR-1 centrifuges for a period of 10 years.

Although the centrifuges that Iran installed before the 2015 nuclear deal were of the first generation, Tehran’s recent uranium enrichment activity at nuclear sites has reached disturbingly advanced levels, potentially increasing the nuclear proliferation risk.

Major centrifuge activities in Iran

May 2008: Iran installed several centrifuges including more modern models.

March 2012: Iranian media announced 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz.

August 2012: The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had installed large parts of the centrifuges at Fordo.

November 2012: An IAEA report confirmed that all advanced centrifuges had been installed at Fordo, although there were only four working centrifuges, and another four fully equipped, vacuum tested, and ready to go.

February 2013: IAEA says Iran has operated 12,699 IR-1 centrifuges at the Natanz site.

June 2018: Iran’s supreme leader revealed Tuesday that it ultimately wants 190,000 nuclear centrifuges — a figure 30 times higher than world powers allowed under the 2015 deal.

September 2019: Iran mounted 22 IR-4, one IR-5, 30 IR-6, and three IR-6 for testing, outside the treaty boundaries.

September 2019: Iran announced it started operating advanced and fast centrifuges to enrich uranium.

November 2024: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announces that his country will operate several thousand advanced centrifuges.

November 2024: Iranian state television broadcasts AEOI Chief Mohammad Eslami announcing that “gasification of a few thousands of new generation centrifuges has been started.”