Oil Sees Further Gains on Sanctions Talk, While Equities Slip

A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko
A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko
TT

Oil Sees Further Gains on Sanctions Talk, While Equities Slip

A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko
A well head and drilling rig in the Yarakta oilfield, owned by Irkutsk Oil Company (INK), in the Irkutsk region, Russia, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

Oil prices extended their gains Thursday on growing fears of further Russia sanctions that could hit already thin supplies, while most equity markets retreated owing to surging inflation and central bank plans to sharply hike interest rates.

The recent rally across equities over the past week appears to have run its course for now as investors nervously track developments in the Ukraine war, with efforts to reach a diplomatic solution crawling along, AFP said.

All eyes are on meetings this week of NATO, where Joe Biden and other leaders are expected to discuss further punishing Moscow for the month-long invasion, while the European Union is still debating a possible embargo on Russian oil.

A warning from Russia that repairs at a terminal near a Black Sea port may take up to two months, causing a drop in exports of about one million barrels per day, added to supply worries.

Both main contracts rallied more than five percent Wednesday -- with Brent back above $120 -- and they continued to advance in early Asian business.

There was little support from speculation about progress in the Iran nuclear deal, which could lead to the release of Tehran's crude back onto world markets.

The surge in oil markets will further fan already elevated inflation -- it is at a 40-year high in the United States and a 30-year high in Britain -- putting pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy before prices run out of control.

In light of that, the Federal Reserve has turned increasingly hawkish.

After last week announcing a quarte- point lift, bank boss Jerome Powell on Monday suggested officials could lift interest rates as much as half a point on more than one occasion if price gains do not slow, even at the expense of the economic recovery.

The prospect of tighter financial constraints down the line is weighing on stocks.

"As traders digest higher (Treasury) yields and higher inflation signals via the oil price channel, stocks are lower," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

"We may see volatility increase further regarding multiple 50 basis point hikes and even emergency rate hikes in the near term. Pressure points are building again with oil back on the boil, resulting in stagflation weighing on sentiment again."

In early trade, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Bangkok were all down, though Sydney and Singapore eked out gains.

Still, Teresa Kong at Matthews Asia said the steeper, quicker tightening moves were necessary.

"The Fed needs to build up its ammunition," she told Bloomberg Television. "Overall, global growth is going to be dampened and they need to be able to cut rates later on, should this have a greater-than-expected recessionary effect."

- Key figures around 0300 GMT -
Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.2 percent at $123.00 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.8 percent at $115.81 per barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.1 percent at 27,727.76 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.3 percent at 22,087.22

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 3,252.48

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0984 from $1.1013 late Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3193 from $1.3204

Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.27 pence from 83.36 pence

Dollar/yen: UP at 121.25 yen from 121.12 yen

New York - DOW: DOWN 1.3 percent at 34,358.50 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.2 percent at 7,460.63 (close)



Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
TT

Iraq Oil Output Exceeds 5 million bpd

Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)
Majnoon oil field near the Iraqi city of Basra (Reuters)

Iraq produces more than 5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), Oil Minister Basim Mohammed told state news agency INA on Saturday.

According to Reuters, Iraq is pushing for a higher OPEC production quota as the economic fallout from the Iran war and new investment by oil majors increase pressure on Baghdad to boost output, potentially putting it at odds with the producer group.

The conflict has hit Iraq particularly hard, forcing major export cuts and depriving the state of oil revenue, which accounted for 88% of government income last year.


IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
TT

IMF: Any Slowdown in AI-driven Growth Would be Factor for Central Banks

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the Annual Meetings Plenary at the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok on October 16, 2026. (Photo by Lillian SUWANRUMPHA / AFP)

Central bankers around the world would need to consider any slowdown in AI-driven growth as they assess steps in their fight against inflation, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Friday.

Georgieva said concerns about dependence on the AI investment boom and high valuations were impacting markets around the world.

"Things are going up and down, and this is likely to continue," she told an audience at IMF headquarters in Washington, adding that the volatility would complicate the job of central banks at a time when risks to price stability had been growing.

A steep rout in technology stocks on Thursday rippled through markets on fears that ⁠the Democrats' victory ⁠in the US midterm elections would increase regulatory scrutiny of AI and slow the data center build-out, sending investors to the safety of bonds.

The political jitters are hitting an AI trade already on shaky footing due to worry about return on massive spending on AI-related infrastructure, with the meltdown spurring margin calls and spooking retail investors and hedge ⁠funds alike.

Georgieva said the AI investment boom was lifting growth in some countries, helping to offset a negative oil-supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East, but it was also adding to inflationary pressures and financial stability concerns.

The IMF last month flagged significant growth and financial stability risks from a potential ending of the AI investment boom, among other factors, including a prolonged Middle East war. At the time, it warned that a steep drop in AI investment could lead to a sharp fall in asset prices, ultimately cutting global GDP ⁠by 1.1% ⁠by 2028, including a 1.8% drop in US output.

Georgieva did not repeat the downside forecast on Friday, but acknowledged the recent market volatility.

"Should there be a slowdown in the AI-driven growth impulse, it would need to be factored in as central banks assess the necessary steps in the fight against stubborn inflation," she said.

Democrats are planning to unleash a flood of new legislation targeting artificial intelligence systems and data-center development when they take control of the US Congress in January, Reuters reported on Friday, citing congressional aides and advocates.

That would mark a sharp shift from the Republican-led Congress, where lawmakers largely focused on promoting AI development and declined to pass legislation restricting the technology.


World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
TT

World Food Prices Dip in October, but Remain Higher Than a Year Ago

A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker carries loaves of bread for sale at a bakery in the capital city of Cairo, Egypt November 4, 2026. (Reuters)

World food prices edged lower in October as weaker import demand contributed to monthly declines in cereal, dairy and meat prices, but were still nearly 6% higher than a year earlier, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of food commodities, ‌averaged 133.9 points ‌in October, down from a revised ‌135.6 ⁠in September.

The index ⁠was 5.9% higher than a year earlier, but remained 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

FAO's cereal price index fell 4.5% from September and was 12.6% lower than a year ago, as wheat and maize quotations declined. Wheat prices eased on weak import demand ⁠and improved production prospects, especially in Argentina.

"Expectations of ‌easing constraints on Black ‌Sea export flows added to the downward pressure on prices, ‌although continued disruptions to Black Sea logistics limited the decline," ‌FAO said in a statement.

Maize prices also eased after reaching a three-year high in September, pressured by the US harvest, expectations of ample supplies in South America and renewed ‌prospects of easing tensions in the Black Sea region.

Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%, ⁠as ⁠higher soybean and sunflower oil prices more than offset a fall in rapeseed oil prices.

Sugar prices rose 6.6%, their fourth straight monthly increase, to the highest level since December 2024, after rainfall disrupted harvesting in Brazil. They were now 28.8% above a year ago.

The dairy index fell 1.1%, as lower butter and cheese prices linked to ample supplies and subdued demand outweighed gains in milk powder.

The meat index declined 1.2%, while still slightly above its year-earlier level, as ovine and bovine meat prices fell.